FCS Playoffs 2014: Analysis and Prediction for National Championship

The FCS National Championship is all set following Illinois State's 21-18 victory over New Hampshire on Saturday. The Redbirds upended the top seed in the playoffs and thus earned themselves a chance to topple North Dakota State, winner of the last three FCS titles.

The Bison beat Sam Houston State on Friday, 35-3, running their record to 14-1 for the season. Over the last four years, they've lost a total of three games. Suffice it to say, they're pretty good.

North Dakota State will likely enter the game as the heavy favorite, but Illinois State has two offensive weapons who could swing the game in the Redbirds' favor.

The Book on North Dakota State

Bruce Crummy/Associated Press

Offensively, North Dakota State boasts a balanced attack that's often befuddled opposing coaches.

While Carson Wentz isn't the most prolific quarterback in the country, he's eighth in efficiency, with 24 touchdowns to 10 interceptions. John Crockett is arguably the tone-setter, ranking ninth in rushing yards per game. In the semifinal, the senior running back had 166 yards and three touchdowns on 26 carries.

He already broke the school's single-season rushing record, so everything else is just piling on now (via ESPN College Football):

Bleacher Report's Dan Hope wrote that Crockett might hear his name on draft day, albeit near the tail end:

"

Between the tackles, Crockett had some issues getting out of the backfield Saturday, showing he’s not the most explosive back out of the gate. What Saturday did show, however, is that Crockett consistently runs hard and can be a tough runner to stop once he gets a head of steam going in the open field.

[...]

An invite to this year’s East-West Shrine Game, Crockett’s toughness and demonstrated running skill makes the 6’0”, 202-pound back a solid prospect who warrants consideration in the late rounds of the draft.

"

Slowing down the running game will be among Illinois State's top priorities. In North Dakota State's lone loss of the season, Crockett ran for just 41 yards.

The Redbirds won't stand much of a chance if Crockett's running wild.

Even if Illinois State manages to keep Crockett in check, that's only half the battle. The tougher objective might be moving the ball against a defense that's only allowing 270.8 yards (third in the country) and 13.2 points a game (second). Illinois State will also want to avoid third downs, with the Bison allowing a conversion 31.3 percent of the time.

North Dakota State had a couple of hiccups at the end of the regular season against South Dakota State and Coastal Carolina but got things back on track against Sam Houston State. When the Bison are hitting on all cylinders, nobody in the country can stop them.

The Book on Illinois State

Jim Cole/Associated Press

While North Dakota State has Crockett, Illinois State counters with Marshaun Coprich, who's leading the country in rushing with 2,168 yards.

New Hampshire did a good job of bottling up the junior running back, limiting him to 79 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. It was the first time all season he'd failed to crack 100 yards rushing. Coprich is still averaging 6.1 yards a carry, which is just absurd.

"I've always been underrated my whole life," said Coprich before the semifinal, per Jack McCarthy of the Chicago Tribune. "The city I live in was not really known, no big-time recruiters coming out there. I can run, I can catch and I can block, and with the line I've got, these guys are very aggressive and always on tempo."

Despite their success against Coprich, the Wildcats still couldn't stop quarterback Tre Roberson, who accounted for 373 yards, per FCS Football:

For the season, Roberson has 3,064 yards passing with 27 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Only two other QBs in school history have thrown for 3,000 or more yards in a season, per the Redbirds:

The junior entered Saturday ranked third in passing efficiency, and his rating will only climb after the victory. Roberson also ran for 874 yards, which includes the 95 he gained on Saturday.

As noted earlier, North Dakota State possesses a very stingy defense. The Bison have a bit of a blind spot when it comes to rushing defense, though. They're allowing 115.9 yards a game (19th in the country).

North Dakota State's biggest weakness might be that run defense. It allowed 218 yards on the ground in the 23-3 loss to Northern Iowa back in November. With Roberson and Coprich, Illinois State might exploit that weakness and pull off the upset.

Prediction

Illinois State has a very good defense, but North Dakota State has a great defense. The Redbirds and Bison look to be very evenly matched, so a difference like that could be enough to tip the three-time reigning national champions over the top.

Illinois State also closed the regular season allowing 31.25 points a game. While the Redbirds won all four of those games, they can't spot the Bison that many points and still have any chance of winning.

North Dakota State also gets the champion's advantage. That team is the king until someone else proves otherwise.

Final Score: North Dakota State 27, Illinois State 20

Note: All stats are courtesy of NCAA.com unless otherwise noted.