Super Bowl 2015: Matchup Predictions for Hottest Teams in NFL

A sport renowned for parity could deliver a duplicate Super Bowl this winter.

With two weeks left in the NFL season, last year's championship contenders are both clicking. Hungry for vengeance over last year's flopped finale, the Denver Broncos have wrapped up the AFC West, and they can clinch a first-round bye with a victory on Monday night.

Although the Seattle Seahawks currently would not be able to utilize their lethal home-field advantage, they can snatch the NFC West back by upending the Arizona Cardinals. As the reigning champions power into peak form, the Cardinals look prime to crash.

The New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers will have plenty to say about a Super Bowl rematch, but each defending conference champion faces an intriguing test that, if passed, keeps them on the short list of favorites. 

Team	Odds
New England Patriots	+315
Seattle Seahawks	+390
Denver Broncos	+475
Green Bay Packers	+640
Dallas Cowboys	+1900
Arizona Cardinals	+2400
Indianapolis Colts	+2400
Detroit Lions	+2700
Baltimore Ravens	+3200
New Orleans Saints	+3400

Matchup	Odds*	Prediction
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears	DET -9.5	DET
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins	MIA -7	MIA
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans	BAL -5	BAL
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers	CAR -4	CAR
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints	NO -7.5	NO
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	GB -13	GB
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -2.5	KC
New England Patriots at New York Jets	NE -11.5	NE
New York Giants at St. Louis Rams	STL -7	STL
Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders	BUF -7	BUF
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys	DAL -3.5	DAL
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals	SEA -9	SEA
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (Mon.)	DEN -3.5	DEN

Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

As the only NFC squad with a playoff berth clinched, the Cardinals are on a quest of their own to become the first team to play the Super Bowl at home. Even at an NFC-best 11-3, the odds are against them.

Even before the injuries under center, Arizona played over its head. FiveThirtyEight's Sharon B. Katz delved into how teams have performed compared to their expected win total. Given their solid, but unspectacular plus-43 scoring margin, the Cardinals are clocked at 8.3 expected wins, by far the most favorable discrepancy below their actual record.

Katz explained how the NFC leaders have achieved victories above their means:

"

The most unambiguous measure of luck in football is fumble recoveries. They tend to be random acts, and a team with an unusually high fumble recovery rate one year generally regresses to the mean the next. The Cardinals lead the NFL in fumble recovery percentage; they’ve recovered 17 of 27 (63 percent).

More generally, Arizona has not controlled games like a team that has won 11 of its first 14 games. The Cardinals have had, on average, a 52 percent chance to win across all of their plays in all of their games this season, which ranks 15th in the NFL. Every other team with at least 10 wins ranks in the top 10 in average win probability.

"

Down Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton, it's up to Ryan Lindley to keep their good fortune rolling against Seattle's premier defense. Per AZCardinals.com's Darren Urban, head coach Bruce Arians trusts his understudy.

Chances are Arians didn't read this factoid from ESPN Stats & Info.

Or maybe he doesn't realize that the Seahawks have only allowed 27 points over their past four games. After struggling to ruffle the quarterback all season, the front seven has picked a good time to amplify the pressure.

They're not shy about touting that resurgence.

This matchup pits strength against strength, as Arizona's vicious rushing defense held Marshawn Lynch to 39 yards when the two last met. It couldn't, however, shield Russell Wilson inside the pocket, letting him run wild for 73 yards.

Arizona mustered 204 total yards and three points in that 19-3 loss, a solid baseline for what to expect on Sunday. To heck with the records; Seattle is the better football team. 

Prediction: Seahawks 23, Cardinals 6

Denver Broncos (at Cincinnati Bengals)

These aren't the fun Denver Broncos shattering offensive records while laying waste to opponents with lopsided slaughters. But hey, they've won four straight.

In Week 11, Denver got caught off guard by the St. Louis Rams, losing 22-7 during a game in which Peyton Manning threw 53 passes and handed the ball off nine times. Ever since, head coach John Fox has decided to run it down opponents' throats.

Rather than finding common ground, C.J. Anderson has received exactly the same amount of handoffs (109) as Manning pass attempts. One problem with that new work split: The rusher is averaging 2.9 yards per carry over the past two bouts compared to Manning's 10.2 yards per attempt.

How exactly is this better? Instead of defenses daring Denver to run, they're now committing to stopping it. Expect a better performance from Anderson against the Cincinnati Bengals' No. 24 rushing defense, but Fox needs to let Manning exploit this new threat rather than throwing it just 20 times.

Denver won both of those games, but the credit goes to the defense, which limited the Buffalo Bills to 17 points before stifling the San Diego Chargers to 10. Denver now ranks No. 4 in total defensive yards allowed and second-best in the league against the run.

That spells trouble for the Bengals, who would rather feed Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard than put the game on Andy Dalton's shoulders. ESPN Monday Night noted the quarterback's struggles in night games, albeit through a small sample size.

"

Andy Dalton's career by start time: Afternoon: 37-16-1, 58.3 QBR. After 7p: 2-6, 19.4 QBR pic.twitter.com/EFgcHrOmtM

— ESPN Monday Night (@ESPNMondayNight) December 20, 2014"

As Denver adjusts the dosage on its run-pass split, the unheralded defense will ensure another victory. Remember Katz citing Arizona as the NFL's most overachieving squad? With 7.6 expected wins, the Bengals came in at No. 2. 

Prediction: Broncos 30, Bengals 20