Stock Watch for Top Freshmen in College Basketball

Not all of the highest-rated freshmen in college basketball have exactly been living up to our lofty expectations, but others have been even better than we dreamed.

With conference season almost upon us, the time has come for a stock watch for what were supposed to be the 10 best freshmen in the country.

Duke's Jahlil Okafor is on par with the projections for him as the top freshman, but the other nine are all over the map. Teammate Tyus Jones is exceeding expectations, but archrival North Carolina has a first-year player who is still finding his way at this level.

A lot can still change over the next three months, but it has been an enlightening six weeks for the new guys under the biggest spotlight. For each one, we've listed stats from his best game, his worst game and why (and to what degree) he has been better or worse than promised.

Note: Preseason rankings are according to 247Sports.com. No. 2 (Emmanuel Mudiay) was omitted because of his decision to not play college basketball.

11. Kevon Looney, UCLA

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Season Averages: 31.8 minutes, 13.5 points, 10.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.7 blocks, 0.8 steals

Best Game (11/26 vs. Wisconsin): 16 points, 15 rebounds, three blocks, one steal

Worst Game (11/27 vs. North Carolina): 11 points, six rebounds, one assist, one block

Stock: Through the roof

Because he was the only top-10 freshman going to a school that wasn't considered a legitimate contender for the national championship, Kevon Looney has been one of the less discussed studs in the country.

Put it this way: If Cliff Alexander was putting up these numbers for Kansas, there would be a daily debate over whether he or Jahlil Okafor has been the best freshman in the country.

Instead, because Looney is doing his thing for a four-loss team that only briefly sniffed the Top 25, not many people have taken notice.

We have, though. It's hard not to notice a freshman with seven double-doubles who ranks in the top 10 in the nation in rebounding average.

Also worth noting is that Looney has played significantly more minutes than any of these other guys. While players like Trey Lyles, Karl-Anthony Towns and Myles Turner are dealing with a timeshare and others like Alexander and Kelly Oubre are being brought along slowly, Looney has consistently been out there for 30 minutes per night from the get-go. 

It's going to be a blast to watch Looney go up against Colorado's Josh Scott and Utah's Jakob Poeltl within the first couple of days of 2015.

10. Trey Lyles, Kentucky

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Season Averages: 19.5 minutes, 7.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.6 steals

Best Game (12/7 vs. Eastern Kentucky): 10 points, 10 rebounds, one assist, one steal

Worst Game (11/30 vs. Providence): zero points, five rebounds, one assist, one steal

Stock: Checking for a pulse

You never want to see a teammate get injured, but Alex Poythress' torn ACL may end up paying dividends for Trey Lyles.

Lyles is oozing with potential, but he was also losing the battle for one of the top spots in Kentucky's frontcourt hierarchy. Willie Cauley-Stein has been incredible, and Karl-Anthony Towns isn't far behind him. Throw in Dakari Johnson putting up better numbers than Lyles across the board, and it's easy to see that Lyles has been Kentucky's fourth-best 4 or 5.

But with Poythress going down and Marcus Lee doing next to nothing so far this season, Lyles has been inserted into Kentucky's starting lineup.

I still believe the Wildcats will eventually settle on a starting five of the Harrison twins, Devin Booker, Towns and Cauley-Stein with Johnson and Tyler Ulis serving as the first two guys off the bench, but that's only because Lyles hasn't fully blossomed yet.

His time is now, and his battle with Louisville's Wayne Blackshear may well be the deciding factor—not only in the game and Kentucky's perfect season but in whether he remains a starter and becomes a 2015 first-round draft pick.

No pressure!

9. Justin Jackson, North Carolina

Chuck Burton/Associated Press

Season Averages: 23.5 minutes, 9.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.8 steals

Best Game (11/22 vs. Davidson): 18 points, four assists, three rebounds, one steal

Worst Game (12/13 @ Kentucky): Four points, two assists, one rebounds

Stock: Down and holding

We're still patiently waiting for Justin Jackson's breakout party.

He has athleticism in spades, but that hasn't yet translated into the unstoppable scoring force that we were expecting.

The particularly bizarre thing here is that he has to be the least of concerns for North Carolina's opponents. Marcus Paige is the great shooter. Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks are the great interior players, and J.P. Tokoto is the guy who can kill you on both ends of the floor if you let him.

Yet, Jackson has only once scored more than 13 points for a team that is averaging more than 80 per game.

He is shooting just 16.7 percent from three-point range and has missed 11 in a row—even though most of them have been wide-open looks.

At this point, you have to wonder how much of his struggles are just mental. He hasn't looked anything like the guy who was named co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American Game. He doesn't even remotely resemble the kid who averaged 30.0 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks per game as a senior in high school.

Rather, he looks timid, not confident and uncomfortable. And if that doesn't change, he's going to lose his starting job to Nate Britt or Joel Berry. Perhaps upcoming games against UAB and William & Mary will finally provide the jolt he needs.

8. Kelly Oubre, Kansas

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Season Averages: 12.6 minutes, 5.7 points, 3.4 rebounds

Best Game (12/20 vs. Lafayette): 23 points, 10 rebounds, one steal

Worst Game (11/28 vs. Tennessee): zero points, zero rebounds, two turnovers

Stock: Emerging from the abyss

Fair or not, we expect our 5-star freshmen to come pre-cooked and ready to devour the moment they step foot on a regular-season court.

Kelly Oubre didn't even remotely deliver.

Through seven games, he was averaging just 7.9 minutes per night. He was held to two or fewer points in five of those games.

Before the Dec. 5 game against Florida, head coach Bill Self told Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star, "He’s at the point now where he has a good enough understanding offensively. And defensively, he’s got some understanding that he’s still got to pick up. But I would rather a guy play with reckless abandon and screw up than a guy play slow and think.”

Two weeks ago against Georgetown, though, Self was ready to finally start cutting him loose.

In each of Oubre's last four games, he has played more minutes than any of his first seven. He has averaged 12.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game.

Oubre's stock fell hard over the first month of the season, and it's going to be hard for his per-game averages to ever look good after all of those duds. However, he's climbing back to national relevance and could soon be the stud we all thought he would be from Day 1.

7. Tyus Jones, Duke

USA TODAY Sports

Season Averages: 28.7 minutes, 10.9 points, 5.3 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 1.5 turnovers

Best Game (12/3 @ Wisconsin): 22 points, six rebounds, four assists, one turnover

Worst Game (12/15 vs. Elon): Four points, four assists, two steals, four turnovers

Stock: Trending up

Tyus Jones hasn't exactly been what we expected, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Groupthink runs rampant through preseason evaluations of freshmen, but it seemed everyone was in agreement that Jones would serve as a point guard much more reminiscent of John Stockton than Allen Iverson.

Even The Chronicle had Jones projected for 8.5 assists and 7.0 points per game.

Lately, though, he has been embracing his scoring ability. Jones has scored at least 16 points in three of the last four games while also recording four or fewer assists in three of those four games.

Without a doubt, part of that is because Justise Winslow hasn't been anywhere near as prevalent on offense as he was in the first five games of the season. Someone had to pick up the scoring slack, and Quinn Cook and Jahlil Okafor were already carrying more than their fair share of the load.

However, it's simultaneously encouraging and discouraging to watch Jones try to take over in close games. In both the 10-point win over Wisconsin and the 10-point win over Connecticut, Jones led the team in scoring by no small margin, attempting more shots than any other Blue Devil in both games.

Thus far, it has worked out well, but Jones isn't the type of athlete who can consistently be the one-man wrecking crew that guys like Jay Williams and Kyrie Irving were for Duke in recent years. Getting others involved in tight games will be a crucial attribute for him going forward.

6. Myles Turner, Texas

Eric Gay/Associated Press

Season Averages: 20.9 minutes, 11.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.9 blocks, 1.1 assists

Best Game (12/16 vs. Lipscomb): 26 points, nine rebounds, six blocks, one assist, one steal

Worst Game (11/20 vs. Iowa): five points, five rebounds, one assist

Stock: Even better than expected

By waiting until late April to sign with Texas, Myles Turner opened himself up to a lot of unjust criticism. Because he waited four months longer to commit to a school than any other 5-star recruit, everyone formed an opinion on where he should go, what his weaknesses were and whether he ultimately made the right decision.

But then we apparently forgot all about him.

Without question, Turner has received less national attention than any other top-seven freshman, even though he's currently tied with Virginia's Anthony Gill for the highest ratio of win shares per 40 minutes in the nation, per Sports-Reference.com.

Texas has been ranked in the AP Top 10 all season, but Turner's outstanding offensive efficiency, rebounding and shot-blocking have somehow flown beneath the radar.

The best Turner stat of all, though: 89.8 percent from the free-throw line.

It isn't quite the highest rate among freshmen, but Turner and Iowa's Aaron White (88.0 percent) are the only players in the country taller than 6'8" who are shooting better than 83 percent from the charity stripe.

Aside from convincing Rick Barnes to let him play more than 25 minutes in a game, there's nothing Turner can't do.

5. Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky

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Season Averages: 18.9 minutes, 8.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, 2.6 blocks

Best Game (12/7 vs. Eastern Kentucky): 19 points, nine rebounds, four blocks, two assists, one steal

Worst Game (12/13 vs. North Carolina): two points, two rebounds, one block

Stock: Up, but slipping

Karl-Anthony Towns had one heck of a run through the first three-plus weeks of the season, culminating in the game against Eastern Kentucky listed above. He had a streak of four straight games with at least 10 points and three blocks in five of Kentucky's first six games of the year.

Over the past three games, though, Towns has been a ghost. Since that great game against Eastern Kentucky, he is averaging 4.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.0 blocks per contest.

The man didn't even attempt a field goal against North Carolina.

What gives? It wasn't even three weeks ago that we were wondering whether Towns or Jahlil Okafor was the best NBA prospect. But while Okafor has since put together games like his 25-point, 20-rebound gem against Elon, Towns has barely even contributed for Kentucky in games against quality opponents.

Maybe he's just playing possum before the big showdown with Montrezl Harrell and Louisville? Towns was great for nine games and mediocre for three, so we're still believing in the majority of what we've seen.

That isn't the case for everyone, though. In Matt Norlander's Tuesday ranking of the top 10 freshmen for CBSSports.com, Towns was nowhere to be found.

That seems pretty harsh. We still think he's a top-five player at this point in the year. If he has dropped from his preseason rank, it isn't by much.

4. Cliff Alexander, Kansas

USA TODAY Sports

Season Averages: 18.6 minutes, 8.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.3 blocks

Best Game (12/5 vs. Florida): 12 points, 10 rebounds, one assist

Worst Game (12/22 @ Temple): two points, three rebounds, one block

Stock: Down and holding

Do you remember when Cliff Alexander was supposed to be one of the biggest challengers to Jahlil Okafor for the USBWA National Freshman of the Year Award?

Not only is Alexander not the second-best freshman in the country, but you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone ranking him in the top 20 right about now—unless the primary criterion for the list is nostalgia.

Don't get me wrong: Alexander has played pretty well. His numbers per 40 minutes (17.6 points, 12.9 rebounds, 2.7 blocks) aren't all that different from those of UCLA's Kevon Looney (16.9 points, 13.5 rebounds, 2.1 blocks). But Alexander isn't playing 40 minutes. Or 30 minutes. Or even 20 minutes per night.

Instead, he's getting minutes almost identical to Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns and doing less with them.

Alexander finally got his first start of the season this week against Temple, but as you can see above, it didn't go so well. Until he fully earns his keep in Bill Self's rotation, he's going to remain well outside the top 10 in our freshman rankings.

3. Stanley Johnson, Arizona

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Season Averages: 28.4 minutes, 14.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 1.7 assists

Best Game (11/26 vs. San Diego State): 18 points, nine rebounds, three steals, one block, one assist

Worst Game (11/14 vs. Mount St. Mary's): eight points, six rebounds, one assist

Stock: Slightly down

Stanley Johnson has been consistently very good. In each of the past nine games, he has at least 11 points and five rebounds, including five games with 17 or 18 points.

But second-best freshman in the country?

Not quite.

He's definitely in the discussion, but it would be hard to argue that Johnson has played better than Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Russell, Kevon Looney or Myles Turner.

Still, being in the top five is nothing to shake a stick at. Johnson has arguably been the most valuable player for one of the best teams in the country, and he's only going to get better as he learns to slow things down a bit and take what the defense gives him.

One of the biggest concerns about Johnson before the season was his perimeter game. He was a poor three-point shooter and not much of a ball-handler in high school. However, he has been one of Arizona's best three-point shooters on the year, hitting triples at a 43.2 percent clip.

Defense was never a concern, though, and he has delivered in that department. Johnson has multiple steals in six of his last eight games, fitting beautifully into Sean Miller's defense as one of the most defensively active freshmen in the nation.

As soon as he cuts down on the turnovers, he should return to his preseason status as the runner-up to Okafor.

1. Jahlil Okafor, Duke

Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Season Averages: 28.2 minutes, 17.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.5 blocks, 0.9 steals

Best Game (12/15 vs. Elon): 25 points, 20 rebounds, three blocks, two steals, one assists, zero fouls

Worst Game (12/18 vs. Connecticut): 12 points, eight rebounds, two assists

Stock: Holding steady

The fact that Jahlil Okafor's worst game was a near double-double against the defending national champions should tell you all you need to know about how well he's living up to the hype.

However, it's a bit disturbing that he wasn't able to do more in that game.

Yes, Connecticut was doubling Okafor every time he touched the ball, but Amida Brimah fouled out after what felt like a total of 30 seconds on the court. Okafor played 34 minutes—matching a season high—and committed just one foul, but he only attempted five shots in what was a close game for most of the night.

Where was that "I'm the best player in the country, and I'm going to take over this game" type of attitude?

We can't fault him for being a bit tentative in games where he's dealing with foul trouble, but he didn't even officially attempt another shot after this gorgeous spin move for a dunk with more than 13 minutes remaining. With just one foul, he should have had a full head of steam for the hoop in the entire second half.

But, hey, it was the last game before a 10-day vacation, and maybe he just wanted to get others involved after that ridiculous 25-point, 20-rebound game against Elon earlier in the week.

Clearly, when Okafor wants to take over a game, there's little that anyone (other than the referees) can do to stop him.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.