Week 16 NFL Picks: Tips, Odds and Over/Under Predictions for Sunday

No NFL bettors are left behind in the holiday rush.

The NFL picks department is ever-present and in need of attention. For those with the time, the Week 16 slate is perhaps the most difficult to date. This makes things both fun and dangerous at a time when coin may already be thin.

Just look at the list of post-Saturday contests below. Some games, such as the Kansas City Chiefs against the Pittsburgh Steelers, are not even divisional games but are quite difficult to figure out.

With so little time left before picks need to be in, let's take out some of the legwork so folks can enjoy the Saturday games while making correct picks the day after, too.

NFL Week 16 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread (O/U)	Pick ATS	O/U Pick	Reason
Minnesota at Miami	MIA -7 (42.5)	MIA	U	Minnesota is underrated, but Miami has an elite defense that will handle a rookie quarterback well.
Baltimore at Houston	BAL -6 (42)	BAL	U	Baltimore will get back to its ground ways to counteract a rush led by J.J. Watt.
Detroit at Chicago	DET -9 (44.5)	DET	O	Detroit's rush will force Jimmy Clausen into plenty of critical mistakes.
Cleveland at Carolina	CAR -4 (41)	CAR	O	See analysis below.
Atlanta at New Orleans	NO -6.5 (56)	ATL	O	New Orleans cannot win at home, so look for Matt Ryan to outduel Drew Brees.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay	GB -12.5 (49)	GB	O	An angry Aaron Rodgers will shred though a miserable defense.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh	PIT -3 (47)	PIT	U	See analysis below.
New England at NY Jets	NE -11 (47)	NE	O	Divisional battles are tougher than most things, but not when it comes to playing the Patriots. Just ask Miami.
NY Giants at St. Louis	STL -6.5 (43.5)	NYG	U	St. Louis will have no answer for rookie star Odell Beckham.
Buffalo at Oakland	BUF -7 (39)	OAK	U	A trip to Oakland is no easy task, but Buffalo can win outright thanks to a great defense.
Indianapolis at Dallas	DAL -3 (55)	IND	O	Andrew Luck will make short work of the Cowboys defense.
Seattle at Arizona	SEA -8 (36.5)	SEA	O	An extended rest for Arizona means a strong performance at home.
Denver at Cincinnati (Mon., Dec. 22)	DEN -3.5 (48)	DEN	U	Cincinnati cannot stop elite passers or show up in major prime-time games.

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 8 a.m. ET on Dec. 20.

Breaking Down Sunday's Toughest Calls

Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (-4), Over/Under: 41

USA TODAY Sports

This would be why Week 16 is so difficult.

The Cleveland Browns have plenty of questions surrounding them at this point, mostly thanks to the fact rookie Johnny Manziel is the starter under center.

Ron Rivera's Carolina Panthers are not much better, though, considering starter Cam Newton missed last week.

Manziel was an emphatic dud in his pro debut last week, a 30-0 loss at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals. He threw for 80 yards and a pair of interceptions, which would have been a trio if the Bengals had not committed a penalty.

Things do not figure to get any easier on the road in Carolina thanks to a 13th-ranked pass defense. Still, offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan is quick to point out that the blame does not fall on his rookie signal-caller alone, per Andrew Gribble of ClevelandBrowns.com:

"

I don’t think there was anything that Johnny wasn’t capable of doing. We just weren’t on, and it wasn’t just him. It was the whole offense, coaches included. We’re just working to get better at this stuff, and I don’t think there was anything he couldn’t do. We’ve just got to do it at a higher level.

"

Then again, it is hard to know just how well Newton will play. It also hurts that starting tailback DeAngelo Williams, per Joe Person of The Charlotte Observer, will likely miss the contest and a chance to exploit a 31st-ranked rush defense.

Despite these question marks, the home team still seems a safe bet. Keep in mind that the Panthers welcomed Tampa Bay to town last week and got a win with Derek Anderson under center.

Part of that was a direct result of Jonathan Stewart, who is now healthy and has a minimum of 75 rushing yards in each of his past three outings. He will have few issues against the woeful Cleveland defense, and a few rookie mistakes will give the Panthers even more opportunities to beat the spread and take down the over.

Prediction: Panthers 27, Browns 17

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3), Over/Under: 47

Now for that contest hinted in the intro.

This one seems complicated at first glance. Two AFC playoff contenders with elite running backs and plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball figure to make things difficult on bettors.

There are a few things to remember, though.

One, Kansas City coach Andy Reid seems reluctant to use his star back. Jamaal Charles has 950 yards and nine touchdowns, but the numbers could be so much better. Reid has run Charles 14 or fewer times in six games this season, including three in a row—which seems to be taking its toll on him.

“The next play they grabbed me and said, ‘We’ve got to go through the protocol and see if you’re fine,’ ’’ Charles said, per ESPN.com's Adam Teicher. “I’m like, ‘OK.’ The next play we scored. I was upset. I wanted to play the game. These injuries this year have been killing me this year. It’s part of the game but I’ve got to get over it."

Even if the Chiefs do use Charles a significant amount Sunday, he will need to be at his best to move past a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 11th against the rush.

In that same vein, the Steelers are something of a pass-first team this year. That approach will not cut it against the Chiefs, though, a team that ranks No. 2 overall against the pass. Instead, Mike Tomlin and Co. will surely take the predictable route and pound the ball with Le'Veon Bell—not that a 28th-ranked rush defense can stop it.

Bell is one of the league's best backs this year. While 1,278 yards and seven scores is an impressive line, he is also second on the team in receiving with 76 catches for 765 yards and three scores.

This one figures to be a low-scoring affair, so the under seems the wise move. Kansas City is far from home, dislikes using its best player and is in the face of a quality defense. To avoid mistakes and control the game, Pittsburgh will not mind a grind with Bell on the ground.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Chiefs 13

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).