TaxSlayer Bowl Betting: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Tennessee Volunteers Odds, Analysis

The Iowa Hawkeyes are 3-3 straight up but 5-1 against the spread in their last six bowl appearances. The Tennessee Volunteers are just 3-7 both SU and ATS in their last 10 bowls. So the trends are with the 7-5 Hawkeyes when they take on the 6-6 Vols in the TaxSlayer Bowl on January 2 in Jacksonville.

TaxSlayer Bowl point spread: Volunteers opened as three-point favorites; the total was 51.

Odds Shark computer prediction: 27.9-27.4 Hawkeyes.

Why the Hawkeyes can cover the spread

The Hawkeyes started 5-1 this season, and while they faltered a bit down the stretch—losing their last two games to Wisconsin and Nebraska by a combined five points—they are playing in a bowl for the 12th time in the last 14 seasons.

Iowa lost five games this season; just one came by more than one score. The Hawkeyes run a bit pedestrian on offense, but quarterback Jake Rudock hit on 63 percent of his throws this season, compiling a 16/5 touchdown-to-interceptions ratio. Also, running back Mark Weisman can be tough to stop, especially in short yardage.

Also, the Iowa defense ranks 19th in the country overall, allowing just 335 yards and 24 points per game.

Why the Volunteers can cover the spread

The Vols sat at just 3-5 heading into November but won three of their last four games, including the clincher at rival Vanderbilt in the regular-season finale, to become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2010.

Tennessee rallied from two touchdowns down with five minutes to go at South Carolina, winning in overtime. Then, they kicked Kentucky 50-16. Then, following a 29-21 loss to eventual SEC East champion Missouri, the Vols held off the Commodores 24-17 for that crucial sixth victory.

Like its bowl opponent, Tennessee can struggle on offense, but the Vols defense ranks 35th in the country, allowing 360 yards per game and holding six of 12 opponents to 19 points or fewer.

Smart Pick

Iowa holds slim advantages on both sides of the ball, although Tennessee did play a tougher schedule—one of the toughest in the country. But for what might turn into a tough, low-scoring affair, it might be handy to have a field goal in the pocket. So the smart choice here is with the Hawkeyes, plus the points.

Trends

• Iowa is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games.
• The total has gone over in four of Tennessee's last five games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.