Week 16 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

Week 16 will be your last opportunity to generate some extra spending money for the holidays, so bet wisely.

Fortunately, the week's games are spread out over four days, with two games taking place on Saturday, giving bettors the opportunity to focus on individual contests rather than simply firing at a cluster of games on Sunday afternoon.

Since there are earlier games this week, earlier preparation is a necessity. If guidance is what you seek, you've come to the right place. After all, it's a good idea to get a variety of opinions and different angles of analysis before making the ultimate decision and putting your money on the line.

Here's a look at the full slate of games for Week 16, their corresponding lines and picks against the spread for each. That will be followed by in-depth analysis for a couple of games that are worthy of wagers and should turn out to be rather profitable.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Tennessee at Jacksonville	JAX -3	Jaguars	Tennessee's issues at quarterback are too concerning.
Philadelphia at Washington	PHI -7.5	Eagles	Don't expect the Eagles offense to struggle against Washington.
San Diego at San Francisco	SF -1	Chargers	San Francisco just can't put up enough points to get wins.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh	PIT -3	Steelers	There will be too much Steelers offense for Kansas City to handle.
Detroit at Chicago	DET -7	Lions	See analysis below.
New England at NY Jets	NE -11	Jets	The Patriots will win but not by more than 11 in this divisional showdown.
Cleveland at Carolina	CAR -3.5	Panthers	Carolina is playing better defense, and Johnny Manziel will continue to struggle.
Atlanta at New Orleans	NO -7	Falcons	Expect another shootout that ends within a one-score margin.
Minnesota at Miami	MIA -7	Vikings	Minnesota's defense will prevent Miami from running away with this game.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay	GB -11	Packers	No one wants to face Aaron Rodgers after he was shut down in Week 15.
Baltimore at Houston	BAL -5.5	Ravens	Houston won't win without a viable quarterback.
NY Giants at St. Louis	STL -5	Giants	New York's offense will surprise a very good Rams defense.
Indianapolis at Dallas	DAL -2.5	Cowboys	It looks like DeMarco Murray will play, so Dallas gets the nod.
Buffalo at Oakland	BUF -6	Bills	This won't end well for the Raiders.
Seattle at Arizona	SEA -9	Seahawks	Ryan Lindley won't be able to score points on Seattle.
Denver at Cincinnati	DEN -3.5	Broncos	See analysis below.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of December 17.

Top Games to Bet

Detroit Lions (-7) at Chicago Bears

Maybe you can catch this spread before it changes. After all, that's likely to happen after ESPN's Chris Mortensen announced the Bears would be benching quarterback Jay Cutler in favor of backup Jimmy Clausen in Week 16:

This game sets up perfectly for the Lions. Detroit owns the NFL's stingiest defense, allowing an average of just 17.0 points per game, and the Bears are getting used to being booed by their home crowd due to their ineffectiveness on offense. Expect that to continue with a new quarterback at the helm.

The Lions have the league's best run defense, allowing just 63.8 yards per game on the ground. That's going to be trouble for Chicago, as it has had difficulty getting its running game going lately. All signs indicate the Bears will be forced into a one-dimensional, pass-happy offense once again. We all know what happens in that scenario—multiple Cutler interceptions, which will now be Clausen interceptions.

After all, Clausen is a journeyman backup for a reason: He's been pretty bad in the NFL. For his career, he has completed 51.9 percent of his passes for 1,600 yards, three touchdowns and nine interceptions for a passer rating of 58.1.

The last time Detroit faced off against Chicago, Cutler was at the helm and the Lions won 34-17. Meanwhile, Chicago's porous secondary couldn't stop Matthew Stafford, who threw for 390 yards and two scores. A change at quarterback isn't going to make the result much different this time around.

However, there's been one dramatic change since these teams last met, and it isn't in favor of the Bears. Chicago has lost wide receiver Brandon Marshall for the season. Without his presence on the field, expect Detroit to roll coverage in Alshon Jeffery's direction, limiting his opportunities.

This one could get ugly.

Prediction: Lions 31, Bears 13

Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, the Bengals are coming off an impressive 30-0 win against the Cleveland Browns; however, they're about to face a quarterback who is far more dangerous than Johnny Manziel. In fact, Peyton Manning has never lost to Cincinnati during his NFL career. Don't expect that trend to end this week.

While Denver's offense hasn't produced more than 29 points in any of its last three games, it is beginning to become more diverse with the emergence of running back C.J. Anderson in the backfield. That's bad news for a Bengals defense that ranks 24th in the league against the run.

Cincinnati does have a good secondary and currently ranks 11th against the pass; however, the team hasn't faced a wide receiver duo quite as prolific as Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders this season. The Bengals have also struggled against better tight ends (see: Week 5 versus New England), and they'll be up against a healthier Julius Thomas.

Quarterback Andy Dalton has been abysmal in prime-time games throughout his career, routinely failing under the bright lights. During Thursday Night Football against Cleveland in Week 10, Dalton accumulated a 2.0 passer rating. Yes, he was that bad.

The Bengals have been able to win games despite their quarterback due to a good ground game featuring Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. That duo racked up 227 rushing yards in Week 15, but they'll find it difficult to duplicate that number against Denver's second-ranked run defense, which is allowing an average of just 71.6 yards per game.

If Cincinnati can't run the ball effectively, it will need a big performance from Dalton to keep up with Manning and Co. That's highly unlikely.

Prediction: Broncos 27, Bengals 20