NFL Playoff Scenarios 2014-15: AFC, NFC Picture, Wild-Card Picks Before Week 16

The NFL's playoff contenders have just two more games to secure a spot in January's action, and while some teams are currently thought of as favorites to enter the postseason, the final picture is far from settled.

Only four teams have officially clinched playoff berths heading into Week 16. The New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts have all claimed their respective divisions, while the Arizona Cardinals are the lone NFC team to punch its ticket for postseason play.

Making things even more complicated, there are 17 other teams still in contention for the remaining eight playoff spots—nine in the AFC and eight in the NFC. That said, we should expect a whirlwind of activity in the immediate future.

So, that brings us to the burning question: Who's in and who's out? While we don't know for sure just yet, there are interesting formulas that have the ability to generate the most likely candidates. Although, before we delve into that discussion, let's first take a look at the current playoff picture heading into Week 16.

Updated Playoff Picture

AFC Seed	Team	NFC Seed	Team
1	(x) New England Patriots (11-3)	1	(x) Arizona Cardinals (11-3)
2	(x) Denver Broncos (11-3)	2	Detroit Lions (10-4)
3	(x) Indianapolis Colts (10-4)	3	Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
4	Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1)	4	New Orleans Saints (6-8)
5	Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5)	5	Seattle Seahawks (10-4)
6	Baltimore Ravens (9-5)	6	Green Bay Packers (10-4)

AFC in the hunt: Kansas City Chiefs (8-6), San Diego Chargers (8-6), Buffalo Bills (8-6), Houston Texans (7-7), Miami Dolphins (7-7), Cleveland Browns (7-7)

NFC in the hunt: Philadelphia Eagles (9-5), Carolina Panthers (5-8-1), Atlanta Falcons (5-9)

Wild-Card Picks

So, this may need some explaining. Football Outsiders runs a playoff odds report each week leading up to the postseason. The report plays out the remainder of the season 50,000 times in an effort to give us the most comprehensive percentages for each team to earn a spot in the playoffs. Here's the outlook as we head into Week 16.

AFC Team	Percentage	NFC Team	Percentage
Baltimore Ravens	61.7%	Arizona Cardinals	54.1%
Cincinnati Bengals	51.6%	Detroit Lions	46.1%
Pittsburgh Steelers	34.1%	Seattle Seahawks	42.8%
Kansas City Chiefs	34.1%	Green Bay Packers	35.6%
San Diego Chargers	10.0%	Dallas Cowboys	15.5%
Buffalo Bills	6.4%	Philadelphia Eagles	5.9%
Houston Texans	2.2%	NFC South Teams	0.0%

Note: Division winners are not included in wild-card percentages.

Week 16 Games to Watch

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers

This game has plenty of playoff implications for the AFC. The Steelers simply need to defeat the Chiefs to earn a spot in the postseason. If that happens, a Chiefs loss would send them to 8-7 on the season, and if the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens win, they would be eliminated from postseason contention.

On the flip side, if the Chiefs beat the Steelers, it would be both good and bad news for the Bengals and Ravens. Pittsburgh would be further out of the playoff picture, but Kansas City would be a major factor heading into Week 17. A Chiefs win would also be bad news for the San Diego Chargers, potentially putting Kansas City ahead by a game before their Week 17 clash.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

This contest may not have any wild-card implications, but it may end up deciding the fate of the NFC South. If the Saints defeat the Falcons and the Carolina Panthers lose to the Cleveland Browns, they will take the division. However, if the Falcons win, they control their own destiny and can clinch the NFC South with a Week 17 victory over Carolina.

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys

Whether Indianapolis wins or loses, the AFC's wild-card picture won't be altered. However, a loss by the Colts could sent them down to the AFC's No. 4 seed if either Cincinnati or Pittsburgh wind up residing in the AFC North's top spot with a win.

It's a different story for the Cowboys. A win keeps them in the NFC East's driver's seat, but a loss could knock them out of the playoffs all together if the Philadelphia Eagles and two other 10-4 teams come away with Week 16 victories.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

The NFC West will be on the line in this one. Both of these teams control its own fate in the division, as winning out would ensure either would finish on top. If Arizona wins on Sunday, it clinches home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. If Seattle wins, it has a very good chance to clinch home-field advantage with another victory in Week 17.

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

The Broncos will be looking to keep pace with the New England Patriots in a race for the AFC's home-field advantage. Both team's are deadlocked at 11-3 entering the week, and the Patriots have a relatively easy game against the New York Jets. A loss by Denver would give New England the privilege of playing in Foxborough throughout the playoffs.

Cincinnati remains atop the AFC North, but it is being closely chased by the Steelers and Ravens. Baltimore is likely to defeat the Houston Texans in Week 16, and if the Bengals lose to Denver, they would relinquish the division lead. If Pittsburgh defeats Kansas City, it would take the reins in the AFC North following a Bengals loss.