Monaco Will Be Tougher Than You Think, but Arsenal Have the Right Formula to Win
Arsene Wenger may be happy about returning to Monaco in the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League. But he and the Arsenal fans shouldn't start popping the champagne corks just yet.
Wenger's old team is a cagey foe that will be tougher than you think. Yet Wenger has the right formula to win and progress in a tournament in which Arsenal are a severely underrated threat.
First thing's first though, Wenger must mastermind a win over the team he guided to a Ligue 1 crown and Coupe de France trophy between 1987 and 1994.
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Wenger built Monaco into regular Champions League participants during his time in charge. His teams were typically defined by goals and fluid football.
Playmaker Glenn Hoddle was a revelation when he joined the French side in Wenger's first year. Strikers such as Mark Hateley, Jurgen Klinsmann and George Weah all featured. Even future stars Thierry Henry, Emmanuel Petit and Lilian Thuram all received their starts at Wenger's Monaco.
Despite a semi-final appearance on Wenger's watch in 1994, Monaco's Champions League highlight remains the run to the final during the 2003/04 campaign. Didier Deschamps' free-scoring team was very different to the Monaco of today.
The current vintage doesn't have the same firepower Deschamps' team boasted, or the fluidity of Wenger's predecessors. There's no Ludovic Giuly, Fernando Morientes, Dado Prso or Yaya Toure like there was in 2003/04.
Instead, Leonardo Jardim's Monaco is all about defensive solidity and physical power in midfield. That was obvious during the group stage when Jardim's men topped Group C after conceding just one goal in six matches, per UEFA.com.
What should concern Wenger is that Monaco's blend of strength and organisation is the exact combination that often frustrates his forward-thinking squad. Simply put, the Gunners can struggle to break down well-drilled, stubborn and defensive-minded teams.
Those adjectives certainly describe Jardim's team and approach. The platform for the solidity is in midfield.
Jardim is blessed with two of the kind of brute-force runners many wish Wenger would sign. Geoffrey Kondogbia is a dynamic young colossus. He's equally adept breaking up attacks as he is at launching them with powerful, striding runs.
A long-term thigh injury has sideline the gifted 21-year-old until 2015, per Sky Sports, though he should be back for the last 16. But Monaco have hardly missed Kondogbia because of Tiemoue Bakayoko.
Signed from Rennes in the summer, the 20-year-old is equally as robust as Kondogbia. If anything, his playing style is actually more destructive. Bakayoko is fast developing into the perfect minder for a defence.
If he wants to get really miserly at the back, Jardim can even include Jeremy Toulalan. The experienced former-Malaga star is a tough and resourceful anchor man who's currently been filling in at central defence due to injuries.
Among the injured is ex-Chelsea centre-back Ricardo Carvalho. His savvy and ruthless pragmatism are still valuable at the top level of European football. Another player currently sidelined, per FourFourTwo, is mooted Arsenal target Layvin Kurzawa, a versatile defender who can play in the middle as well as at left-back.
But the real key to Monaco's resolute rearguard is Jardim's approach. You'll rarely ever see the Monaco back four left unprotected. Usually, there are two rugged holding players in close proximity.
Monaco don't press with ferocity but hold stable lines in midfield and defence, lines that offer very few passing lanes between gaps. The midfield power is also complemented wonderfully by another Arsenal target, Joao Moutinho, per David Wright of the Express.
The Portuguese schemer is a sly pass-master who can launch a quick attack behind teams pouring numbers forward to try and break Monaco down. Moutinho gives Jardim the ideal midfield combination of brawn and technical artistry.
With Bakayoko or Kondogbia able to drive from deep, Monaco's chops on the counter could cause plenty of problems for an Arsenal team often guilty of being exposed on the break.
The uncompromising defence, the rugged midfield and Jardim's natural pragmatism have given Monaco the perfect combination to stifle and spoil passing teams like Arsenal.
They recently offered ample proof of how effective that combination has become by beating Ligue 1 leaders Marseille 1-0. Managed by Marcelo Bielsa, a coach who preaches the same quick and intricate passing Wenger adores, Marseille still drew a blank against Jardim's wall.
Marseille couldn't score despite bossing 62 per cent of the possession, per BBC Sport. That's just typical of Jardim's Monaco.
They did something similar when they beat the Gunners by the same scoreline during the Emirates Cup in August. Jardim's men closed off Arsenal's passing lanes and negated their pace, while Kondogbia dominated the middle.
Of course, Monaco also had the benefit of Radamel Falcao that day. The Colombian striker headed the winner barely a month before joining Manchester United.
Since his departure, it's been one-time United striker Dimitar Berbatov most often leading the line. The mercurial Bulgarian has rarely been prolific, although he has hurt Arsenal in the past. He did exactly that when he bagged a brace to help Fulham draw 3-3 at the Emirates Stadium in October 2012.
Berbatov is another Monaco player who is currently injured. But when he's healthy, he and tricky winger Lucas Ocampos represent a credible threat going forward.
That's despite Monaco's less-than-flattering attacking numbers from the group stages, per Squawka Football:
Monaco have earned the right to approach this tie with a healthy amount of confidence. That was reflected by Toulalan's comments once the draw was made, comments that referenced Monaco's proud defensive resilience per ESPN FC:
"We did well against them in pre-season, though this will be a completely different challenge. For me, we have a 50/50 chance. It'll make Arsene Wenger happy, I think, to come back here, as well as the French players in the squad.
The Arsenal players are technically gifted and fleet of mind and foot. Of course it'll be difficult. I know Olivier Giroud well, it'll be nice to come up against him on the pitch. We'll go to the Emirates with our strengths. We're not an easy team to play against. We'll have freshness and insouciance on our side.
"
While it's easy to like somebody who manages to work the word "insouciance" into describing a football match, Wenger's biggest concern needn't be what type of team Monaco field.
His primary focus will be integrating returning players while sticking to the same formula that's worked so well in recent matches. It's a blend of pace, economy and efficiency in possession and a willingness to play on the break.
That's the potent brew mixed up by Wenger that's helped the Gunners win five of their last six matches since losing to United at home. The formula worked to perfection in the recent 4-1 home win over Newcastle United.
It was a game in which usual ball hogs Arsenal only enjoyed 52 per cent possession, per Nick Miller of The Guardian. But that economy on the ball still led to four goals, proof that Arsenal were ruthlessly efficient with their chances for once:
That ruthless streak has been inspired by a better overall team structure, one made possible by playing three strikers. Whenever Wenger has used the front three of Danny Welbeck, Alexis Sanchez and Olivier Giroud this season, it's worked.
The trio offers pace, aerial strength, goals and, perhaps most important, hard work. They are part of the significantly improved attacking resources Wenger has available this season:
But scoring proficiency isn't the only benefit of the Sanchez-Welbeck-Giroud alliance. With this three-pronged attack in place, Arsenal's midfield and forward players seem to know their roles better.
Giroud knows he's going to press the centre-backs from the front. Sanchez and Welbeck know they'll sometimes help him, but they'll also cover Arsenal's full-backs.
Whenever they double up out wide, the Gunners have a massive tactical advantage. First, they aren't vulnerable to quick passes down the flanks, which is how Arsenal are so often punished on the counter.
Speaking of the counter, Arsenal are perfectly structured to break when they steal possession. Against Newcastle, Giroud was often joined by Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain in pressing Magpies defenders and deep-lying midfield players.
Chamberlain's fellow central midfielders Mathieu Flamini and Santi Cazorla were then able to drop deeper and cover the back four. With Sanchez and Welbeck toiling out wide, Arsenal surrendered the middle. But it was a deliberate and sly concession.
Newcastle were allowed to work the middle because there were times when the Gunners had eight players in deep areas. That challenged United to play through heavy numbers—something that's not easy.
It was made even more difficult when Newcastle could hardly work the ball into the middle because of the intense pressing in forward areas. The sight of United defenders looking up frustrated and launching the ball long in hopeful—but wayward—fashion was as good as any of the goals Arsenal scored.
It was proof that the Gunners had the right symmetry in both their strategy and performance. Or, as Wenger put it post-match, per Arsenal.com:
"We can score goals and we showed that again tonight. Overall it was a dynamic game where defensively - despite the fact that we were depleted at the back - we were quite solid. Going forward we always looked dangerous. In the end we won in a convincing way. We scored four goals and that was needed.
"
The question is can, or perhaps will, Wenger keep that dynamic in place? That question is especially tough to answer when you take the eventual return of some of Arsenal's injured stars into account.
For instance, Santi Cazorla is playing as well as he's ever played in an Arsenal shirt at the moment. But what happens when Mesut Ozil is fully fit?
Ozil playing passes for a buoyant front three certainly is an exciting prospect. But that won't happen if Wenger persists in trying to play the Germany international and Cazorla together.
That has usually meant deploying one on the flanks. But that would mean dropping Sanchez or Welbeck. Not only are both Ozil and Cazorla better in central areas, but neither will work as hard to help provide the defensive balance that Welbeck and Sanchez will.
What exactly does Wenger do with Theo Walcott? The lightning-fast wide forward is close to a return to full fitness, per Daily Star reporter Adrian Kajumba.
Walcott, along with Lukas Podolski, will certainly score more goals than Welbeck. But neither will work as hard for the collective good of the team.
Being loaded with firepower is a nice scenario. But finding the right balance is a tricky dilemma Wenger must solve, even if it means making tough decisions.
This isn't the first time this season Wenger has faced this dilemma. But if he has to use Walcott from the bench, if he has to drop Chamberlain and Cazorla to the same lumber, Wenger must do it to keep the balanced, counter-attacking formula in place.
Playing on the break is this Arsenal squad's best route to success this season. With players such as Aaron Ramsey, Ozil, Mikel Arteta and Jack Wilshere still to return, along with Walcott and centre-back Laurent Koscielny, that formula can take Arsenal far in this competition.
First though, Wenger must keep the balance right to avoid being frustrated by Jardim's cagey Monaco.
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