Bahamas Bowl Betting: Central Michigan vs. Western Kentucky Odds, Analysis, Pick

Western Kentucky went 8-4 last year but was snubbed when it came to bowl invitations. This season the Hilltoppers, with a 4-0 straight up, 3-1 against-the-spread finish, went 7-5 and received a bowl bid, and a nice one at that. Western Kentucky will take on 7-5 Central Michigan in the inaugural Bahamas Bowl Wednesday, December 24 at Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau.

Bahamas Bowl Point Spread: Hilltoppers opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 65.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 34.8-32.3 Hilltoppers

Why the Chippewas Can Cover the Spread

The Chippewas started just 2-3 this season, although one of those victories came at a Big Ten school— Purdue. CMU then won five of its next six games, including an upset of eventual MAC champion Northern Illinois, before falling in its season finale to Western Michigan.

So the Chips are back in a bowl after a one-year absence. On the season they only rank 83rd in the country in total offense and 69th in rushing, but they have a quarterback who has completed 64 percent of his throws and owns a 20/12 touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio, and a 1,000-yard rusher.

The Chippewas defense ranks 16th overall and 18th against the run.

Why the Hilltoppers Can Cover the Spread

The Hilltoppers sat at just 3-5 one month ago, but won their last four games, including a 67-66 overtime upset of eventual AAC champion Marshall. That victory came as a 24.5-point underdog on the betting line. Western Kentucky racked up 738 yards of offense on the Herd, and only 25 of those came in the overtime period.

So the Hilltoppers are in a bowl for the second time in the last three seasons. Western Kentucky ranks sixth in the country in total offense, averaging 528 yards per game, as senior QB Brandon Doughty threw for 4,300 yards and 44 touchdowns, against just 10 interceptions.

Running back Leon Allen ran for almost 1,500 yards and 12 scores. If this game becomes a shootout, the Hilltoppers have the ability to simply outscore the Chippewas.

Smart Pick

Western Kentucky owns the edge on offense, while Central Michigan owns the advantage on defense. And in close calls like this the smart money usually resides with the better defense. So the choice here is with the Chippewas.

Trends

• Central Michigan is 5-2 SU in its last seven games
• The total has gone over in nine of Western Kentucky's last 13 games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.