2015 NFL Mock Draft: Breaking Down Each Team's Optimal Selection
The goal of every NFL team is to get better. It doesn't matter if they had the worst record in the league or won a Super Bowl, all 32 franchises are trying to find ways to improve their roster.
Unfortunately, due to the fickle nature of player development and the various ways teams evaluate talent, not everyone will find that success. The best teams strike gold more often than not, but even they will have their share of disappointment.
As the countdown to the NFL Scouting Combine in February begins, optimism will continue to grow. In the latest mock draft, here's a look at the players teams need to draft and those that have a lot of work ahead of them.
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No. 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Of the two big quarterbacks likely to go in the top 10, Marcus Mariota is the more volatile one. Even though his numbers at college wouldn't suggest it, we know better than to scout a stat line.
The biggest question for Mariota is what he will do when his first read isn't there. Does he become Russell Wilson, able to avoid tacklers and keep his eyes down the field, or Robert Griffin III?
During a conference call with reporters, ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper said there are some easy-to-identify flaws with Mariota's current skill set, via Dom Cosentino of NJ.com:
"Mariota is a quarterback with a lot of talent; I'm talking about ability in terms of running with the football, in terms of making any throw you want him to take. Now, is he as precise as you need to be, coming out of an offense where he's throwing into huge windows, and guys wide open? Some inaccuracy issues ... in the NFL, you've got to be precise.
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We have seen what happens to most of these mobile quarterbacks who run a lot in college when NFL defenses get tape and can identify tendencies. Mariota has the tools you want in a No. 1 pick and will look the part in shorts, but there's a wide gap between his floor and ceiling that gives him huge bust potential.
No. 2 Tennessee Titans: Leonard Williams, DE, USC
The Titans, despite their need for a quarterback, have many other needs to address before thinking about competing for a playoff spot. Leonard Williams is the best pure talent in this class, with elite speed off the edge and power to play in the middle of the line.
No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
Even though the Jaguars went receiver-heavy in last year's draft, a game-changing talent like Amari Cooper is just what Blake Bortles needs. He's not as big as some elite NFL receivers at 6'1" and 205 pounds, but his route running and ability to make plays in traffic are special.
No. 4 Washington: Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
Washington will have to figure out another solution at quarterback, either via free agency or later in the draft. That might be good news, because the defense in the nation's capital is also a mess. Brian Orakpo is on the brink of free agency, so the team needs to find another pass-rusher.
Shane Ray is the latest Missouri defensive standout to warrant a top-10 pick. He's not as physically impressive as Randy Gregory at 6'2", 240 pounds, but he is just as quick and can play on the line or at outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme.
No. 5 Oakland Raiders: Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
The Raiders defense is going to be scary in 2016, possibly sooner if this year's draft class develops quickly. Khalil Mack is already a star at the linebacker position, but he needs help from the front line to really unleash his skills.
B/R NFL draft expert Matt Miller has Gregory listed among the top pass-rushers in this class, ahead of Shane Ray and Dante Fowler:
Gregory is thin for the position at 245 pounds, but his 6'6" frame suggests adding bulk shouldn't be a problem. He's also one of the fastest edge-rushers in the nation and can get around an offensive lineman in the blink of an eye.
No. 6 New York Jets: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
Jameis Winston's list of off-field issues makes him a volatile pick, especially in the top five, but he's more pro-ready than any quarterback in this class. He's got prototypical size at 6'4" and 235 pounds, with elite arm strength.
The questions about his accuracy are legitimate, as we've seen Winston make many simple mistakes this year. But if you're given the chance to start a team with a quarterback whose game starts in the pocket or a runner who happens to play quarterback, what would you take?
No. 7 Atlanta Falcons: Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
Even though an instant-impact player is what the Falcons need to help this defense, Shaq Thompson's ceiling is too much to pass on at this spot. He's raw, with a lot of development ahead, and needs to add muscle to his 224-pound frame, but the Washington star has elite speed and has handled the transition from defensive back to linebacker with aplomb.
No. 8 New York Giants: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
Giants fans don't want to hear about another problematic offensive lineman joining the team, but Cedric Ogbuehi's stock is all over the place.
Bucky Brooks of NFL.com noted that Ogbuehi seemed to lose steam this season when Texas A&M moved him off of left tackle in November:
"If the left tackle is able to handle one-on-one matchups on the backside, the offense can slide protection in the opposite direction to protect an inferior player on the right. This is standard operating procedure at every level, so I can't fully buy what Sumlin is selling, especially after seeing the Aggies recently produce a pair of offensive tackles drafted in the top 10 (Luke Joeckel and Jake Matthews) after honing their respective skills at left tackle during their final collegiate season.
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There's enough raw potential for Ogbuehi to warrant a first-round pick and a strong history of performance to suggest he can climb as high as the top 10. However, he seems like a player benefiting from the recent success of Texas A&M offensive linemen.
No. 9 Chicago Bears: Landon Collins, S, Alabama
Alabama defensive backs have a spotty track record in the NFL. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix is still growing into his spot with Green Bay, but Dee Milliner looks like a bust for the New York Jets.
Whether that has any impact on Landon Collins, who is a first-round talent, remains to be seen. His ability to read the quarterback has been evident throughout his junior season, though it would be nice to see him show better instincts as a playmaker in the middle of the field.
The Bears are desperate to find help at any defensive position, especially in the secondary. Collins is the best defensive back available and will upgrade Chicago's atrocious defense.
No. 10 Carolina Panthers: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
Cam Newton has gotten destroyed this season. The Panthers' running game has been nonexistent most of the season. No team needs help on the offensive line more than the 2013 NFC South champions, who lost their leader when Jordan Gross retired.
Brandon Scherff isn't a high-ceiling player, but his massive 320-pound frame and power give him the foundation piece Carolina needs to build around.
No. 11 Minnesota Vikings: Dante Fowler, DE, Florida
The Vikings went after help on defense last year by drafting high-ceiling pass-rusher Anthony Barr in the first round. They still need help in that area and should opt for a safer play in Dante Fowler.
ESPN's Mel Kiper (Insider subscription required) wrote about Fowler in updating his big board last month, noting the Florida star "isn't dominant in one area, but he's pretty good pretty much anywhere you line him up."
While adding a wide receiver in this spot is also a possibility, the Vikings need to focus on taking the best player available. Fowler also gives the team another weapon to use since it has to go against Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford twice each year.
No. 12 St. Louis Rams: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
On raw talent, no one denies that Marcus Peters has the potential to be a special player. He's got good size (5'11", 193 pounds) and speed to play cornerback in the NFL, as well as some of the best ball skills in the class.
However, Peters does come with the kind of baggage that makes him a difficult player to project. He was kicked off Washington's team in the middle of the season due to clashes with assistant coaches, according to Adam Jude of The Seattle Times:
"Peters got into an argument with an assistant coach during practice Wednesday, a source said, apparently the final straw in a series of run-ins with Washington’s new coaching staff. He also got into an argument with coaches during UW’s victory at Colorado on Saturday and then missed practice on Tuesday, sources said.
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Bucky Brooks of NFL.com wrote that some NFL people he talked to wouldn't mind Peters' "strong personality":
"...I've had several scouts tell me that his character and personality wouldn't be an issue at other major programs. An NFC scout told me that coaches comfortable dealing with kids who have a bit of an edge wouldn't have a problem getting the best out of Peters or helping him assimilate into a structured program.
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The Rams are building a special defense with a stacked defensive line, but one missing piece is a cornerback who can lock down the opposing team's top wideout. Peters has that kind of potential, as long as he can control his emotions in key moments.
No. 13 Houston Texans: La'el Collins, OT, LSU
Whatever the Texans decide to do with the quarterback spot, they can use help on the offensive line. La'el Collins has been battle-tested playing SEC defensive lines, and he's a monster in the running game at 324 pounds, with better speed off the line than you would expect.
Collins also brings versatility, being able to play tackle or guard if the situation arises. He's got work to do in pass protection, but the Texans are a run-first team that will take advantage of his skills while growing in other areas.
No. 14 Cleveland Browns: Devante Parker, WR, Louisville
Whoever is the quarterback for Cleveland in 2015, it's clear help is needed in the passing game. Josh Gordon's return hasn't been the elixir to fix things, due in part to poor routes by his own admission that left Brian Hoyer hanging out to dry.
Devante Parker is a big-play threat with good separation off the line and tremendous speed. He does have erratic hands, but they're not so bad that he will turn into a bust. Putting him alongside Gordon suddenly gives the Browns a dynamic one-two punch on the outside that will help their quarterback next season.
No. 15 San Francisco 49ers: Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan
There are a lot of problems the 49ers have to fix this offseason, but wide receiver has to be a top priority. Anquan Boldin is still reliable, though he's been victimized by drops more than usual and is 34 years old. Michael Crabtree and Brandon Lloyd are going to be free agents, so who knows if they will return.
Devin Funchess will give the offense more versatility than it has had in the passing game. He's a 6'4", 235-pound playmaker who can line up on the outside or as a tight end, which could also be an area of need, with Vernon Davis falling off the map.
Even though speed is a problem for the 49ers that Funchess doesn't solve, he gives them depth at a spot where they need a quick fix to help Colin Kaepernick.
No. 16 Miami Dolphins: Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
The Dolphins need to get an impact edge-rusher, because Dion Jordan looks like a bust. Cameron Wake is getting older, though he still plays at a high level. Bud Dupree gives Miami someone to build with who can learn from Wake along the way.
Plus, as Eric Edholm of Yahoo Sports wrote in his mock draft, in which Dupree went No. 7, the Kentucky star is effective getting after the quarterback and stopping the run.
Eric Galko of SportingNews.com noted how much better Dupree has gotten today compared to where he started the season:
"Dupree started off his 2014 campaign with ample excitement over his upside, and he’s developed even further this season with great body control, lateral quickness and suddenness, and instinctive reactions to opposing blockers. His combination of production, development and potential could make him a top-10 pick by draft day.
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Dupree has answered every challenge put in front of him this season and will make a dynamic NFL talent wherever he goes.
No. 17 Kansas City Chiefs: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
However they do it, the Chiefs need to find help at wide receiver. Alex Smith isn't the kind of quarterback who wants to look down the field, which becomes an even bigger problem when you don't have speed at the receiver position.
Kevin White has shown some holes in the short passing game and running precise timing routes, but there's no one in the country who can match his ability to go over the top and create big plays. The Chiefs need more home run threats to at least give Smith something to think about before he goes into the checkdown.
No. 18 San Diego Chargers: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
For the second straight year, San Diego is forced to upgrade its secondary through the draft. Jason Verrett, last year's first-round pick, was placed on injured reserve in November with a torn labrum. Brandon Flowers, who came over from Kansas City, is on a one-year deal.
Michigan State has become a haven for defensive backs, with Darqueze Dennard last year and Trae Waynes this year. Waynes isn't the same kind of cornerback, but he is excellent at reading the ball and adds valuable support in the running game with his tackling skills.
No. 19 Cleveland Browns (Acquired from Buffalo): Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
Despite improvements as the season has gone on, the Browns are still struggling on defense. Stopping the run has been especially problematic, because they have built a roster loaded with pass-rushers but lack size in the middle.
After taking a high-upside player with their first pick, the Browns should go after a player with a higher floor. Danny Shelton lacks ideal height at 6'1", but his 332-pound frame and ability to absorb multiple blockers while making tackles are rare. He will immediately upgrade Cleveland's defensive front.
No. 20 Philadelphia Eagles: Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
Things seem to point toward the Eagles drafting a defensive player in the first round again, though Chip Kelly is an offensive guru who found out this year that his quarterbacks aren't good enough to make just anyone look good.
Assuming the Eagles re-sign Jeremy Maclin, they still need to find another receiver on the outside to take full advantage of Kelly's wide-open attack. Jaelen Strong is the powerful option who can get those tough yards after the catch on short routes in this offense.
Jon Solomon of CBS Sports posed a question involving Strong and another top receiver in this class that should tell you how the Arizona State star looks on film:
Cooper deserves his spot as a top-10 pick, though Strong certainly has a compelling case as the No. 2 receiver in this class. If he falls this far, Philadelphia should be thrilled to land him.
No. 21 New Orleans Saints: Leonard Floyd, LB, Georgia
Because of Rob Ryan's defensive scheme, which employs a number of blitz packages, the Saints need to have players with closing speed to be effective. Floyd has shown above-average speed on the field and moves all over the field as well as any linebacker in this class.
No. 22 Pittsburgh Steelers: Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
The Steelers were so desperate for help on the defensive line when the season started that they had to give 36-year-old Brett Keisel a one-year deal late in the preseason. It's helped them stop the run, but the pass defense is poor thanks to an aging secondary and lack of pressure from the defensive line.
Eddie Goldman isn't a true pass-rusher as a defensive tackle, but he causes so many problems for opposing defenses because of his size (6'3", 315 pounds) and strength. Kevin Weidl of ESPN raved about the Florida State star's potential after reviewing some of the film:
Those great Steelers defenses from previous years were built from the inside out. It's time for this franchise to get back into that mode and help an offense that has become one of the best in football.
No. 23 Baltimore Ravens: Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson
The Ravens love versatility on defense and are starved for a pass-rusher up front, which makes Beasley a perfect fit for John Harbaugh's roster.
According to Kiper, via Aaron Brenner of The Post & Courier, Beasley can play in a 4-3 or 3-4 scheme at the next level:
Few teams are able to add instant-impact talent, especially on defense, like the Ravens. Beasley should be another addition to a talented team.
No. 24 Cincinnati Bengals: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
The Bengals' offensive line depth has been challenged this season, most notably following a season-ending injury to Andre Smith. Marvin Lewis wants this offense to have a physical running game, so dominating in the trenches is essential.
Andrus Peat doesn't have the ceiling of many offensive tackles in this class, but his floor is as high as anyone's. He has the measurables at 6'6" and 315 pounds, throws defenders away with ease when he's able to get set and can move in the running game.
The only real knock on Peat is that he tends to get too aggressive in both phases of blocking, which leaves him open to making mistakes when he doesn't sit back and allow a play to develop.
No. 25 Dallas Cowboys: Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon
The knee injury suffered by Ifo Ekpre-Olomu during Oregon's preparation for the Rose Bowl has left his draft stock up in the air. Paul Myerberg of USA Today reported through a source that it "may be more serious than an ACL tear."
That's devastating news for Ekpre-Olomu, who will miss Oregon's quest for a title and could lose a lot of money along the way. Until the official diagnosis comes out, it's not a stretch to keep him in the first round with a team that desperately needs cornerback help.
Even though the Cowboys have been improved on defense this season, thanks largely to their offense being on the field a lot more, there are still gaping holes to plug. The secondary has to be their top priority. Morris Claiborne was struggling before he got hurt. Orlando Scandrick has been hot and cold.
Ekpre-Olomu isn't tall, but he's lanky to make up for the lack of size. He moves well in man-to-man coverage and has no problem dropping back into zone. Few defensive backs play the ball better than the Oregon star, so he's got all the tools to be a starter right out of the gate.
No. 26 Detroit Lions: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
Even if the Lions had bigger needs, they are almost forced to go with a defensive tackle in the first round. Ndamukong Suh is going to be a free agent, and Nick Fairley's option for 2015 wasn't picked up by the team. Those are two massive holes for Detroit's defense to plug.
Malcom Brown isn't the athlete Suh is, but he's more polished as a player than Fairley. Dane Brugler of CBSSports.com thinks the adjustments from the Texas star this year have been impressive:
"Brown looks natural on his feet with the range and redirection skills to make plays away from the line of scrimmage. He needs to improve his functional strength and won't generate much movement off the snap with an average punch and undeveloped understanding of leverage and pass rush.
However, Brown has shown the ability to take on multiple blocks while keeping his eyes elevated to track the ball and his development as a junior in 2014 will be interesting to track for both fans and NFL scouts.
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The Lions have built one of the NFL's best defenses based on the strength of their defensive line. They have to keep supplementing that moving forward to keep the unit producing at its current level.
No. 27 Indianapolis Colts: Daryl Williams, OT, Oklahoma
The Colts didn't have a first-round pick last year and haven't used a Round 1 pick on an offensive lineman since Anthony Castonzo in 2011. No one will argue selecting Andrew Luck first in 2012, but it's time to give the star quarterback better protection to see what he's really capable of doing.
Daryl Williams isn't an athletic offensive tackle, but his power and discipline in pass protection are exactly what the Colts need. He's also a strong run-blocker, which is an area this team has struggled in for a long time.
No. 28 Green Bay Packers: Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State
The Packers have improved on defense thanks to moving Clay Matthews inside at times, though that does limit what he does best as a linebacker. For the team's performance to be sustained moving forward, finding a permanent solution is essential.
Benardrick McKinney certainly looks the part of an NFL inside linebacker at 6'4", 249 pounds. He's also a tremendous athlete with speed and instincts to make plays in the running game.
According to Brugler and Rob Rang of CBSSports.com, the biggest area McKinney needs to improve is in pass defense:
"McKinney is an impressive athlete for a man his size, but while he's a stout run defender, he isn't as consistent in space. There is a lot to like about McKinney, but there are some concerns that his struggles against the pass will limit him to a two-down thumper role in the NFL.
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Whether that improvement comes right away or takes a season, McKinney is the kind of high-upside athlete the Packers can afford to gamble on because their offense will cover a lot of problems on defense.
No. 29 Seattle Seahawks: A.J. Cann, G, Stanford
The Seahawks are as unpredictable as any team outside of New England in the NFL draft, so trying to narrow down what they are thinking is virtually impossible. One area in which they need to get younger is the offensive line.
A.J. Cann is the kind of offensive lineman you don't notice—in a good way. He's not an exceptional athlete, but he understands positioning in the passing game. He's also got underrated agility and first-step quickness off the line in the running game.
Seattle's offense is built around power running, so finding an offensive lineman who provides an upgrade in that area is essential.
No. 30 New England Patriots: Shawn Oakman, DE, Baylor
As previously mentioned, the Patriots are an enigma in the draft. We can try to pinpoint what they need, but Bill Belichick marches to his own drum. No one saw Dominique Easley coming last year, though the jury is still out on whether that's a good or bad thing.
Shawn Oakman isn't in the same category as Williams, Gregory or Ray, but the gap between the Baylor star and those other players isn't as steep as you might think.
David Smoak of ESPN 1660 in Waco, Texas, noticed that Oakman's evolution in 2014 has resulted in him becoming a more complete defensive lineman:
Belichick loves versatility as much as anyone, so Oakman's ability to be a factor against the run or pass makes him doubly attractive in this spot.
No. 31 Arizona Cardinals: Denzel Perryman, LB, Miami
The Cardinals don't have many needs on defense, but one that hasn't been addressed is inside linebacker. Denzel Perryman lacks the measurables teams are looking for at 5'11" and 242 pounds, but he's not dissimilar to Chris Borland coming out of Wisconsin last year.
Borland slipped to the 49ers in Round 3 but has done nothing but produce since becoming a starter after Patrick Willis got hurt. Perryman has those same kinds of instincts and wrap-up skills to overcome his limited measurables.
No. 32 Denver Broncos: Ty Montgomery, WR, Stanford
The Broncos need to keep Peyton Manning's receiving corps strong, because his arm strength continues to dissipate. This offense will be more reliant on everyone else to make plays to help out the future Hall of Fame quarterback.
Denver also has to look at pass-catchers early, because Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas are free agents after the season. Ty Montgomery hasn't gotten a lot of national attention because Stanford's offense isn't dynamic, but he's the one big-play threat to put up numbers.
Stanford head coach David Shaw also pointed out that Montgomery may have been better this season were it not for some erratic quarterback play, via David Lombardi of ESPN.com:
Manning's strengths as a passer are accuracy and timing, so route running is essential to having success. Montgomery has that and good top speed to make big plays for this offense.
Note: Stats and measurables via ESPN.com
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