Odds on the Last Undefeated Team in College Basketball: Handicapping the Field

Could we be headed for a second straight college basketball season with an undefeated team at the start of the NCAA tournament?

Perhaps a better question: Are we more likely to have two 34-0 teams or zero?

After a little more than one month of play, only nine undefeated teams are left in the country. Today, we're ranking those teams by the likelihood that they will serve as the last undefeated team remaining in 2014-15.

It's a delicate balance of strength of roster and strength of schedule, but it won't come as any surprise that Kentucky is No. 1 and TCU is No. 9. It's in between where things start to get interesting. Duke at No. 5, for instance, might surprise some people, but you have to factor in who each team is playing, when and where.

On these slides, we list each team's percentage of being undefeated on January 1 as well as on February 1. We determined those numbers by their chance of winning each game as calculated on KenPom.com (subscription required).

TCU, for example, has at least a 95 percent chance of winning each of its remaining games between now and New Year's Day, but it goes downhill in a hurry after that.

We'll also note which game we think will result in each team's first loss, list up to five other games that could also result in losses and then provide each team's odds of lasting the longest without a loss.

9. TCU Horned Frogs

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Likely First Loss: January 7 @ Kansas State

Other Potential Losses: January 3 vs. West Virginia, January 10 @ Baylor, January 19 vs. Texas, January 24 @ West Virginia

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 91.2 percent

Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.02 percent

Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 100-1

Last week, I took a long, hard look at TCU's impressive start to the season.

The moral of the story: The schedule is disgustingly weak, but this team is a whole lot better than yesteryear. Against an equally abysmal schedule in 2013-14, the Horned Frogs struggled regularly and even lost a home game to Longwood.

This year, though, they're beating up on everyone, averaging 75.0 points per game with an average margin of victory of 19.4 points.

They should get to 13-0 with three easy games remaining before New Year's Day, but they're about to get a not-so-subtle reminder that they play in the best conference in the country.

TCU will still be undefeated when the calendar flips to January, but it would take a significant amount of chaos in the next few weeks for the Horned Frogs to be the last unbeaten standing.

8. Colorado State Rams

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Likely First Loss: January 3 @ New Mexico

Other Potential Losses: December 27 @ New Mexico State, January 7 vs. Wyoming, January 24 vs. San Diego State, January 27 @ Boise State

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 14.9 percent

Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.3 percent

Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 40-1

If we're being perfectly honest, I have no idea what to make of this Colorado State team.

Aside from having a great assist rate (65.2 percent), the most noteworthy thing the Rams do is attempt significantly more free throws than their opponents—and a good percentage of that advantage is due to the fact that they have been leading late in close games all season.

There isn't one thing they do exceptionally well, nor is there one area where they're particularly weak.

Colorado State seems to just be winning by the power of experience.

The primary seven-man rotation consists of one sophomore, three juniors and three seniors. The three seniors are leading the team in minutes, points and rebounds.

In tight games, that type of leadership has been paying dividends in the form of wins over quality opponents like Georgia State, UC Santa Barbara, UTEP and in-state rival Colorado.

Even though the start of the season may have been partially smoke and mirrors, it's tough to see the Rams losing in the immediate future. New Mexico isn't anywhere near as strong as usual, and Wyoming has had a tendency to struggle away from home in recent years.

They may well get to 19-0 before being tested again, but 23-0 seems nearly impossible, as they would need to go through San Diego State at home and road games against notoriously good home teams in Boise State and Wyoming.

7. Washington Huskies

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Likely First Loss: December 20 vs. Oklahoma (neutral court)

Other Potential Losses: January 2 @ California, January 4 @ Stanford, January 22 @ Colorado, January 25 @ Utah

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 28.5 percent

Chance Undefeated on February 1: 0.3 percent

Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 35-1

For a while there on Sunday night, I didn't think this slide would even need to be written.

Washington trailed Eastern Washington late into the second half before storming back from a 13-point deficit to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, improving to 8-0.

(It may not seem like a quality victory, but Eastern Washington does have road wins over Indiana and San Francisco already this season. The Eagles are going to give a team fits in the NCAA tournament, provided they represent the Big Sky.)

So how long can Robert Upshaw, Nigel Williams-Goss and company keep this up?

The Huskies have a rough stretch of games away from home coming up in the next six weeks, but don't underestimate the power of a great shot-blocker. In 2011-12, Anthony Davis led Kentucky to a national championship. In 2012-13, Gorgui Dieng's defense in the paint was crucial for Louisville. Last year, Connecticut wouldn't have been the same without Amida Brimah's rejections.

No, I'm not saying that these Huskies are going to win the 2015 national championship because of Upshaw. What I am saying is that their start to this season after going 17-15 last year isn't a fluke. Last year's team was woeful defensively and had no real inside presence.

Regardless of how soon Washington suffers its first loss of the season, this is a serious Sweet 16 contender. I'm not sure you can say that about Colorado State, and I'm pretty sure you shouldn't say it about TCU.

6. Louisville Cardinals

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Likely First Loss: December 29 vs. Kentucky

Other Potential Losses: January 10 @ North Carolina, January 17 vs. Duke, February 7 @ Virginia, February 18 @ Syracuse

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 44.3 percent

Chance Undefeated on February 1: 7.1 percent

Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 10-1

It's funny how the second letter in the conference abbreviation changes everything.

If Louisville was still in the AAC, we'd be viewing this Kentucky game as the last significant hurdle between the Cardinals and a 34-0 start to the season. Yes, the AAC is that bad. Sam Vecenie of CBSSports.com made a compelling argument last week that the conference could be headed for just one bid. Deal with it.

In the ACC, though, they would need to get to at least 23-0 before we start seriously asking whether they have a chance at running the table.

That's because to get that far without a loss, they will have to win home games against the two best teams in the country and road games against two of the four best teams in the ACC. KenPom.com gives Louisville a 6.2 percent chance of winning all four of those games, and even that seems generous.

It won't come to that, though, because Louisville will lose the grudge match against Kentucky.

Say what you will about the Buffalo and Columbia games, but when the Wildcats are engaged, they cannot be beaten. And if there's any game this season that they'll get up for, it's this one.

It doesn't matter that it's a home game for the Cardinals. They might lose by double digits.

5. Duke Blue Devils

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Likely First Loss: January 17 @ Louisville

Other Potential Losses: December 18 vs. Connecticut (neutral court), January 28 @ Notre Dame, January 31 @ Virginia, February 14 @ Syracuse

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 79.2 percent

Chance Undefeated on February 1: 4.2 percent

Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 9-1

The Blue Devils have a couple of minor hurdles between now and mid-January, but if they do get to 16-0, I hope they lose that game against Louisville.

Why, you ask?

Because Mike Krzyzewski shouldn't have to celebrate his 1,000th career win in the KFC Yum! Center. It should happen the following Monday at home against Pittsburgh.

Ignoring the historical aspect of the game, a road tilt with Louisville will likely be the most difficult battle Duke faces until the Final Four. Louisville's guards trap about as well as any other team in the country, and the Cardinals are one of the only teams with a guy (Montrezl Harrell) who is big , strong and confident enough to win a war with Jahlil Okafor.

Duke has been incredible through its first nine games, beating each and every opponent—including a few quality ones—by at least 10 points apiece. But if the Blue Devils aren't the underdogs against Louisville, it would be a bit of a surprise.

Should they survive that game, they'll still have road games against Notre Dame and Virginia before the end of January, hence their roughly 1-in-24 odds of still being undefeated on February 1.

4. Arizona Wildcats

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Likely First Loss: February 28 @ Utah

Other Potential Losses: December 19 @ UTEP, January 8 @ Oregon, January 22 @ Stanford, January 24 @ Cal, February 13 @ Washington

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 57.5 percent

Chance Undefeated on February 1: 6.0 percent

Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 8-1

For as much as the entire world is talking about whether the Kentucky Wildcats can go 40-0, there sure haven't been many rumbles about the Arizona Wildcats potentially running the table.

That's a mistake.

As is the case with both the Big Ten and SEC, we're still waiting on the second-best team in the Pac-12 to please stand up. Utah seems to be the best early candidate, but if you could get 15.5 as the over/under for number of Pac-12 wins Arizona will have this season, you'd be crazy not to pound the over.

So why not 18-0?

This is an excellent defensive team that is starting to wake up on offense. Even after the 27-point thrashing of Michigan over the weekend, it's possible we still haven't seen Arizona at its best.

3. Villanova Wildcats

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Likely First Loss: January 19 @ Georgetown

Other Potential Losses: December 20 vs. Syracuse, January 6 @ St. John's, February 14 @ Butler, February 28 @ Xavier

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 69.1 percent

Chance Undefeated on February 1: 8.7 percent

Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 6-1

All for one and one for all.

Villanova has seven players averaging between 7.0 and 13.0 points per game and also has seven players averaging at least one assist per game. For as much as we praise John Calipari getting his guys to buy into the platoon system at Kentucky, there might not be a more selfless team in the country than Villanova.

Not only do the Wildcats do a wonderful job of sharing the rock on offense, but their team defense is right up there with the best in the country. They're averaging better than nine steals per game.

Villanova got out to a slow start against Lehigh and Bucknell in mid-November but has been pretty dominant since then. After taking care of business against Temple on Sunday, the Wildcats have now won five straight games by at least 14 points—even though three of those games were part of the Philadelphia Big 5 rivalry and another was a neutral-court game against a solid Illinois team.

The Big East is better than last year, but this conference isn't exactly overflowing with Sweet 16 candidates. Butler, Georgetown and St. John's are tournament-worthy teams, but there's no individual game left on the schedule that stands out as a definite loss for Villanova.

2. Virginia Cavaliers

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Likely First Loss: January 31 vs. Duke

Other Potential Losses: December 21 vs. Harvard, January 3 @ Miami (Fla.), January 10 @ Notre Dame, February 2 @ North Carolina, February 7 vs. Louisville

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 80.3 percent

Chance Undefeated on February 1: 15.8 percent

Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 5-1

No team in the country has impressed me as much as Virginia.

That isn't to say the Cavaliers are necessarily the best team in the country or even in the ACC, but they have defied my expectations.

Most of my expert Preseason predictions are looking feasible, at worst, but I'm looking pretty darn moronic in saying that Virginia would be the most disappointing team this season.

Come on, though, who knew that Justin Anderson would not only fill Joe Harris' shoes but look better in them to boot?

Were it not for Kentucky pacing to set NCAA records in defense, Virginia would have to be regarded as the nation's best defense. The Wahoos are top five in adjusted defensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage allowed, defensive rebounding percentage and two-point defense, according to KenPom.com.

But we already knew they'd have a great defense. They've had one since Tony Bennett became the coach. The big surprise is how efficient they have been on offense, particularly their offensive rebounding percentage.

Harris was tough to replace, but one could make an argument that replacing Akil Mitchell was going to be even tougher. However, Mike Tobey and Darion Atkins have been outstanding on the glass on both ends of the court. Anthony Gill has been no slouch, either.

As great as they've been, no one is going undefeated in the ACC. It's just a matter of pinpointing when they'll finally slip up.

They have it pretty easy until the last day of January, but playing three consecutive games against Duke, North Carolina and Louisville is an impossible task. There's a better than reasonable chance Virginia will get that far without a loss, but it won't survive that gauntlet.

1. Kentucky Wildcats

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Likely First Loss: None

Other Potential Losses: December 20 vs. UCLA, December 27 @ Louisville, February 7 @ Florida

Chance Undefeated on January 1: 40.5 percent

Chance Undefeated on February 1: 19.3 percent

Odds of Being Last Undefeated: 2-1

If Kentucky beats Louisville next Saturday, it's full steam ahead on the 40-0 train.

The only other game left on the Wildcats schedule in which KenPom.com gives them a less than 80 percent chance of winning is the road game against Florida—which they still have a 68 percent chance of winning.

Alex Poythress is an outstanding player, but losing him doesn't change much about this team. According to KenPom.com's O-Rating, Poythress was actually the least efficient offensive player on the roster. According to Sports-Reference.com, he was ninth on the team in points per 40 minutes.

Poythress' main contributions were blocking shots and emphatically finishing alley-oops, but at least three or four other regulars in the rotation do plenty of that already.

Literally since early May, we've been using one hand to talk about how unbeatable Kentucky will be this year while using the other to try to find potential weaknesses. We've about reached the point, though, where it's time to just sit back and enjoy the ride.

Maybe the Cats slip up and lose a game along the way. Perhaps it even happens in the tournament. But put this team in a seven-game series against any other team in the country, and any analyst worth his or her weight in salt is picking Kentucky to win in no more than five games.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.