NFL Playoff Picture Week 15: Updated AFC, NFC Standings Entering Sunday

This late into the NFL season, one game can change everything.

Since 23 teams remain in contention, several are bound to cross paths during the closing stretch. All but two matchups (Giants vs. Washington, Jets vs. Titans) on the Week 15 docket will impact the playoff picture, some more than the others.

Three divisions, all on the AFC side, can be sealed up on Sunday, but the night's showdown will redirect one NFC grouping's power structure. No clear outlook will exist heading into Week 16 but some members of the 7-6 surplus need a win to remain relevant, or else they'll tighten up the hunt a tad.

AFC Picture

Seed	Team	Week 15 OPP
In the Hunt
1	New England Patriots (10-3)	Miami
2	Denver Broncos (10-3)	at San Diego
3	Indianapolis Colts (9-4)	Houston
4	Cincinnati Bengals (8-4-1)	at Cleveland
5	Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)	at Atlanta
6	San Diego Chargers (8-5)	Denver
	Baltimore Ravens (8-5)	Jacksonville
	Houston Texans (7-6)	at Indianapolis
	Miami Dolphins (7-6)	at New England
	Kansas City Chiefs (7-6)	Oakland
	Buffalo Bills (7-6)	Green Bay
	Cleveland Browns (7-6)	Cincinnati

Had the Miami Dolphins defeated the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday, their Week 15 bout with the New England Patriots would suddenly bear much more significance. After beating them to start the season, another win could have willed them one game behind their rivals while holding the tiebreaker.

Instead, they're fighting for their playoff lives against a vengeful foe looking to clinch the AFC East.

According to ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss, a divisional adversary has not swept the Patriots since 2000, when the New York Jets and Buffallo Bills each beat them twice as rookie Tom Brady watched from the sideline.

New England, which has yet to lose at Foxborough this season, leads the NFL in point differential (+134). A surging rushing game can expose a Miami defense that surrenders 123.5 yards per game through the ground, making it likely that a once stout playoff threat drops to 7-7.

The Dolphins could then close out the year with victories over the Minnesota Vikings and New York Jets, but 9-7 likely won't cut it with three wild-card competitors already perched at eight wins apiece.

One of those, the Ravens, turned their season around after collapsing two weeks ago against the San Diego Chargers, another 8-5 club. Armed with a plus-101 point differential and third-best weighted Defensive-adjusted Value over Average, via Football Outsiders, Baltimore sports the strongest resume of the crowded pack.

After proving they can hang with another strong opponent, the Ravens move on to play the Jacksonville Jaguars before getting the Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns in ensuing weeks. Equipped with the No. 5 rushing offense and No. 4 rushing defense, they can run the gauntlet and capture the AFC North at 11-5.

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

San Diego is not so fortunate in terms of scheduling. After falling short to New England, it now must find a way to upend the Denver Broncos, or else yield the AFC West while dipping down the wild-card picture. Then they tangle with the slipping San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, still two dangerous 7-6 clubs with potent defenses.

Outside of the four 2-11 squads jousting for draft positioning, every other AFC team sports a winning record entering Week 15. Yet there's only room for half of those dozen squads to survive.

NFC Picture

Seed	Team	Week 15 Opponent
In the Hunt
1	Arizona Cardinals (11-3)	at St. Louis (12-6 W)
2	Green Bay Packers (10-3)	at Buffalo
3	Philadelphia Eagles (9-4)	Dallas
4	Atlanta Falcons (5-8)	Pittsburgh
5	Seattle Seahawks (9-4)	San Francisco
6	Detroit Lions (9-4)	Minnesota
	Dallas Cowboys (9-4)	at Philadelphia
	San Francisco 49ers (7-6)	at Seattle
	New Orleans Saints (5-8)	at Chicago
	Carolina Panthers (4-8-1)	Tampa Bay

For the second time in three weeks, the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles will clash for NFC East supremacy.

When the two foes met on Thanksgiving, Philadelphia demolished Dallas behind a season-high 159 rushing yards from LeSean McCoy and season-low 73 rushing yards from DeMarco Murray. One may have expected Jason Garrett to ease up on Murray's brazen workload after his tamest output of the year.

Nah. The following week, the NFL's leading rusher handled 32 carries for 179 yards along with 49 yards on nine catches. Per ESPN Stats & Info, no team has utilized a running back so much in eight years.

Murray's 373 touches creates a grave concern going forward, especially if he piles on more snaps in postseason play. Yet he has averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in every game other than the loss to Philadelphia, and the Eagles rank a modest No. 18 in rushing defense.

He should rebound on Sunday night. As should Tony Romo, who fired two picks with no scores on Thanksgiving, snapping a 38-game touchdown streak. The 34-year-old bounced back with three touchdowns against the Chicago Bears, making Week 13 a blemish on an otherwise phenomenal year.

And he's doing it with virtually no intact body parts. In addition to an offseason back surgery and two transverse process fractures, he also admitted to playing through a broken rib.

"It'll be nice when it's just about the back [surgery] instead of all the other junk," Romo told ESPN.com's Todd Archer.

As he learned the hard way, the Eagles bring an unrelenting pass rush that leads the NFC with 44 sacks. Attacking Romo can orchestrate a series sweep, but their secondary is also prone to relinquishing huge gains, allowing 258.1 passing yards per game on 7.6 yards per attempt.

Not only does the winner assume the divison's driver seat, it also stays at arm's length of a first-round bye. The Arizona Cardinals made it tougher for either to catch them after topping the St. Louis Rams on Thursday night. They also, however, had another dreadful offensive outing with no touchdowns.

Regression will hit hard when they face the Seattle Seahawks in Week 16. If Seattle handles the San Francisco 49ers this Sunday, that showdown will determine first place in the NFC West.