UNC vs. Kentucky: Preview and Prediction for Top-25 Showdown

Two of the most successful—and popular—college basketball teams renew their rivalry on Saturday when No. 21 North Carolina (6-2) visits top-ranked Kentucky (10-0) in one of the more anticipated nonconference games of the season.

This is the tail end of a home-and-home series, with UNC knocking off Kentucky in Chapel Hill last December. The schools have met 36 times in their history, with the Tar Heels owning a 23-13 edge that includes a 2-1 advantage in NCAA tournament contests.

It is the first of three straight games away from home for Carolina, which plays at UNC-Greensboro on Tuesday and then faces UCLA in Chicago on Dec. 20 in the inaugural CBS Sports Classic. Kentucky will be at that event as well, playing Ohio State in its next game after Saturday's clash.

Click through the slideshow for our detailed breakdown of this battle of ranked teams that sit first (Kentucky) and third (UNC) all time in college basketball victories.

What You Need to Know

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When: Saturday, Dec. 13; 12 p.m. ET

Where: Rupp Arena, Lexington, Kentucky

TV: CBS

North Carolina (6-2) is already showing signs of being the same kind of team it was in 2013-14 in terms of overall performance, despite a much deeper team and more balanced lineup. The Tar Heels have already lost twice but not to the teams where defeats would be expected.

UNC lost to Butler in the opening round of the Battle 4 Atlantis then went on to beat UCLA and Florida in the consolation bracket. The Heels then returned home and dropped a 60-55 decision to Iowa in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge.

Junior guard Marcus Paige has struggled with his shooting so far, making only 35.5 percent of his shots after hitting at a 44 percent clip last season. UNC's frontcourt has shown marked improvement thanks to the efforts of junior Brice Johnson (who is coming off a 19-point, 17-rebound performance against East Carolina) and sophomore Kennedy Meeks, but in both losses UNC has been massively outrebounded despite a significant size advantage.

Kentucky (10-0) is one-fourth of the way toward a perfect 40-0 season, a goal that seems possible with how its innovative platoon system has played out so far. Coach John Calipari has assembled two five-man units that he rotates in and out every few minutes to keep his players fresh and keep opponents off balance, though in the last few games injuries and individual breakdowns have caused the platoon plan to get scrapped at times.

An additional blow to that system was learned Friday when the school announced junior forward Alex Poythress has torn the ACL in his left knee and was out for the season.

The Wildcats are dominating opponents defensively, holding every foe to under 40 percent shooting. They lead the nation in scoring defense (45.8 points per game) and field-goal defense (28.7 percent), and they have won every game by at least 10 points despite several sluggish starts.

Seven players are averaging more than seven points per game, with junior forward Willie Cauley-Stein atop the charts at 10.3 points and 6.9 rebounds while shooting 61.8 percent.

Players to Watch

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North Carolina

Kennedy Meeks: Down nearly 50 pounds from a year ago, the 6'9" sophomore has shown how his slimmed-down body can make him more of a weapon. He's averaging a double-double (13.8 points, 10.3 rebounds) while shooting 63.8 percent from the field.

Meeks has five double-doubles, tied for ninth in Division I, and he's made 20 of his last 29 shots over three games.

Marcus Paige: The junior guard is the engine that runs the Tar Heels offense, but he's sputtered to this point. His scoring was expected to drop this season, thanks to additional offensive support, but he's struggling to get going with his shot.

Paige has made only 10 of 32 field goals in his last three games and just four of 19 from three-point range. Without consistent scoring from him, the Tar Heels become too one-dimensional.

Kentucky

Willie Cauley-Stein: One of two juniors (along with Alex Poythress) sprinkled in among Kentucky's overabundance of underclassmen, the 7'0" forward has raised his game to another level this season. Beyond just the numbers—which, if spread over 40 minutes, would come out to 17.1 points and 11.5 rebounds per game—Cauley-Stein is bringing a level of leadership that this young team needs.

He's also anchoring the strong defensive effort the Wildcats have put forth this season, blocking 16 shots and rebounding more than 15 percent of available misses when he's on the court.

Karl-Anthony Towns: The only freshman who's part of the Wildcats' starting platoon, Towns has done most of his damage on the defensive end. With 28 blocks he is eighth in the nation, and that's only playing 18.8 minutes per game.

The 6'11" Towns averages 19.4 points and 14.3 rebounds per 40 minutes.

UNC Will Win If...

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Marcus Paige starts (and stays) hot

North Carolina has the bigs to battle with Kentucky's loaded front line, as reserves Joel James and Isaiah Hicks have shown the ability to fill in for Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks when needed. UNC's play from the wings has been mostly good, with Justin Jackson and J.P. Tokoto contributing.

But where this game hinges for the Tar Heels is through the play of its catalyst, Marcus Paige. Last year he had to do it all, and this was possible in most cases but also proved to be too much to handle down the stretch. This season he's struggled to get his shot to fall and without consistency from outside opponents can overload the box to defend the frontcourt.

If Paige makes a few shots early, thus stretching the defense, he'll be able to drive and dish to get the rest of the team involved. With balanced scoring comes a strong chance for a win but only if Paige instigates this balance.

Kentucky Will Win If...

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The slow starts stop

Kentucky has managed to overcome very uneven first-half performances on numerous occasions this season, but those have come against teams like Buffalo, Boston University and, most recently, Columbia. Those opponents wore down under the burden of having to play 40 minutes against a deep and rested team, one that had far too much talent to handle.

The Wildcats didn't start as slowly against their toughest foes, Kansas and Texas. Had they done so the ability to come back would have been challenged, as it will be against North Carolina.

As the platoon system starts cycling out and a smaller rotation of players gets used by Kentucky, relying on just wearing down opponents in the second half won't also be a viable game plan. Hot starts are just as important as strong finishes.

Prediction

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North Carolina has 13 wins against No. 1 teams, more than any other school, including last year's victory at Michigan State. It also beat Kentucky last season and is a better all-around team in 2014-15 in terms of talent and balance.

Yet the Tar Heels might be even more inconsistent than a season ago, which makes it hard to predict what they'll do from one game to the next. Getting outrebounded by Butler and Iowa was completely out of character from the rest of their games and negated the Heels' biggest improved area this season.

Any interior struggles on Saturday will doom UNC because of how strong Kentucky is on the inside, but even if it can play even in the paint there's still the issue of finding consistent outside and mid-range shooting. It hasn't been there for the Heels, nor has it existed for Kentucky.

Both schools are in the bottom 50 teams in Division I in three-point shooting, but one of them is going to find its shot in this game. It will be Kentucky, which will get off to its hottest start of the season and win handily.

Prediction: Kentucky 84, North Carolina 63

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.