AS Roma vs. Manchester City: Tactical Preview of Champions League Game
The situation in UEFA Champions League Group E is complicated, but Manchester City can progress if they beat Roma at the Olimpico and CSKA Moscow don't beat Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena.
It's a must-win game for Manuel Pellegrini, and despite picking it up in the league, the pressure will be heavy should the club drop out at the group stage...again.
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Roma need a 0-0 (bettering their result of 1-1 at the Etihad Stadium by an away goal) or a victory here, and they must also hope CSKA Moscow don't beat Bayern if they draw.
Morgan De Sanctis' horror show at the weekend vs. Sassuolo could see Lukasz Skorupski play in goal, while Davide Astori is fighting with Kostas Manolas and Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa for a spot in defence.
Jose Holebas, Maicon and Radja Nainggolan are presumed starters, with Kevin Strootman not yet sharp enough for such an occasion. Adem Ljajic could start after rescuing the Giallorossi at the weekend, with Gervinho and Francesco Totti joining him in Rudi Garcia's classic 4-3-3.
Vasilis Torosidis (right-back) is a doubt, while Leandro Castan has been ruled out for the season after undergoing brain surgery.
Manchester City
Per BBC Sport, Sergio Aguero is out for four-six weeks with a knee ligament injury. It's nowhere near as bad as first feared, but it's still a gutting blow to the team.
It leaves City's attack in the half-fit hands of Edin Dzeko and Stevan Jovetic. Pozo came on for Aguero against Everton to play the lion's share of minutes to make sure the first-choice strikers were not placed under any fitness-related duress.
Pellegrini has also said he will check on the fitness of David Silva, but to start him here would be uncharacteristically bold. Yaya Toure is still suspended, so expect a Fernando-Fernandinho midfield pairing.
Vincent Kompany is a maybe due to injury; he'll be assessed before kick-off and replace one of Eliaquim Mangala or Martin Demichelis.
Key Tactical Point 1: Examining City's Defence
City have looked defensively awful this season at times. Even Kompany is making individual errors that are leading to goals, and the less said about Mangala's previous errors, the better.
The way to get at City is to hold possession long enough for them to shrink into a defensive shell and then test the channels either side of the centre-backs. Whether that's directly between the centre-back and full-back or hitting the byline and dragging them over, it doesn't matter; there's joy to be had.
West Ham crucified Mangala by beating the full-back and forcing him to defend the wide areas, and Swansea flummoxed Kompany by catching him out of position during intricate build-up play.
There's a chance the Giallorossi—who play slow, uninventive football at times it must be said—will sit off and try to release Gervinho on the counter-attack, but there's a big chance in possession if you put City under enough pressure.
If any forward is clever enough to spring the space, it's Totti.
Key Tactical Point 2: City's (Hardworking) Midfield
Roma's 4-3-3 is obvious and expected, but the shape of City's is to be determined. We're expecting a 4-4-1-1 look with Dzeko up front, meaning Samir Nasri could play in the hole just behind if Jovetic can't start.
By default, Jesus Navas plays right and James Milner left, creating a very hardworking—if a teensy bit uninspiring—midfield selection to do battle in Rome. Pellegrini will need the brawn on Wednesday night; going up against Radja Nainggolan, Daniele De Rossi and one of Miralem Pjanic or Seydou Keita is not a fun task for anyone at the Olimpico.
Whoever gains the physical edge will get the upper hand, but City can create momentum by upping the tempo, pressing and passing quickly.
Against Southampton they were rampant for 20 minutes, tearing through the Saints' defence with ease. By contrast, we watched Roma spin around helplessly as they were decked 7-1 by a quick-moving, hardworking Bayern Munich midfield.
The Giallorossi play slow and expect the opponent to reciprocate—a natural instinct given the tempo in Serie A. Liven it up and there's a chance their heads start swimming.
