Rose Bowl 2015: Updated Odds and Full Preview for Oregon vs. Florida State
The 2015 Rose Bowl has everything a college football fan could ask for, including the pressure that comes with being in the semifinals of the initial College Football Playoff.
Oregon and Florida State are two national brands that are instantly recognizable by even the most casual followers of the sport. The Seminoles feature last season’s Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback in Jameis Winston, while the Ducks counter with this season’s overwhelming Heisman favorite in Marcus Mariota.
The two teams combined to go 25-1 this season, and Florida State has not lost in two years. Oregon typically destroys its opponents (winning by just over 26 points a game the past eight contests), while Florida State has worn out the cliche “finds a way to win” saying with escape acts against North Carolina State, Louisville, Clemson, Notre Dame, Miami, Boston College, Florida and Georgia Tech.
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Here is a look at the essential information for the game before digging into a preview.
2015 Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State
When: Thursday, Jan. 1
Where: Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, California
Start Time (ET): 5 p.m.
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Odds (via Odds Shark): Oregon -9.5, as of December 8
Preview
Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher could not have set up this game much better, via Andrew Greif of The Oregonian:
"It's what college football is all about. That makes for great TV and great competition and what it's all about. Getting the best against the best. Oregon is a national brand-name team. They have earned that right, the team is recognized all the way across this country. … Florida State is a national brand-name. When you put two quarterbacks like that, brand names like that as far as college football it's what the playoff was designed to do.
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While Florida State has won every game it has played the last two seasons, the key to this one will be stopping the high-octane Oregon attack. Jared Shanker of ESPN.com believes that the Seminoles caught a break getting matched up with the Ducks instead of Alabama:
"It sounds crazy -- and maybe it is considering Oregon is outscoring opponents by almost 24 points per game -- but football is a game of matchups, and the Seminoles are better off against the Ducks, an early 8.5-point favorite.
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Oregon’s offense is “off the charts,” Fisher said, but the Seminoles have the luxury of three-week period to prepare for the Ducks’ dynamic spread. Although no offense is soaring quite like the Ducks’, Florida State’s last three games have been against Boston College, Florida and Georgia Tech. All or some of those teams are predicated on the run, have mobile quarterbacks, use a lot of misdirection and run some variance of the option.
That experience may help, but stopping Boston College, Florida or even the tricky option offense of Georgia Tech pales in comparison to stopping Marcus Mariota and company.
The good news for Florida State is that it is loaded with dynamic athletes along the defensive line who are explosive enough to counter Oregon’s speed and strong enough to stuff the middle. Eddie Goldman in particular will be asked to plug the middle, while Mario Edwards must contain the edge and find a way to redirect plays back to Goldman and the linebackers.
Oregon’s one weakness on the offensive side this year was protecting Mariota, and it allowed 29 sacks throughout the campaign. While much of that was when there were injury problems along the front, Goldman and Edwards represent the protection’s biggest challenge of the year.
Florida State will have to generate pressure because the rest of the matchup with Oregon’s offense doesn’t look promising. The Ducks only turned the ball over eight times this entire season and should be able to run all over Florida State’s 60th-ranked rush defense with Mariota and Royce Freeman.
Mariota is the face of college football this season, but Freeman gave Oregon’s offense an extra dimension down the stretch with 12 touchdowns in his last eight games. The freshman is a physical presence in the backfield who improved as the season progressed.
Remember, the Seminoles allowed 331 rushing yards to Georgia Tech the last time out. Oregon should have plenty of lanes to attack on the ground. Of course, that will force Florida State to devote more attention to stopping the run, which will open up the passing game over the top for Mariota.
On the other side of the ball, Florida State will have to establish the run for multiple reasons. For one, freshman Dalvin Cook is a budding superstar who carried the offense with 392 yards in his last two games and won an ACC Championship Game MVP award. What’s more, Oregon’s defense is a mediocre 57th in yards per rush, so there should be some openings along the line.
If the Seminoles can keep the chains moving and the clock running, it would also keep Mariota and the powerful Oregon offense on the sidelines for longer and give the Florida State defense a much-needed rest.
Running the ball consistently should open up the pass for Florida State as well, which is critical because Oregon is an abysmal 103rd in the country in passing defense. The Seminoles counter with the No. 14 passing offense.
That disparity is the biggest advantage Florida State has on paper in this game, and it needs to exploit it to come away with the victory. Look for deep-threat Rashad Greene and Nick O’Leary, who is Winston’s security blanket on critical third downs, to make some pivotal plays in the passing attack.
However, before you just assume Florida State’s offense is going to destroy an overmatched Oregon defense, it is important to point out that the Ducks thrive by creating turnovers. Only seven defenses in the country scored more points off turnovers per game than Oregon this year, while Florida State’s offense ranked an alarming 116th in the country with 27 turnovers.
The game will ultimately be determined by a costly Florida State turnover. Playing against Mariota and Oregon’s offense puts an incredible amount of pressure on the opposing offense to score almost every time it touches the ball. Winston will press given the circumstances and throw a crippling interception.
Mariota will make him pay.
Prediction: Oregon 34, Florida State 24
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