NFL Predictions: Week 15 Awards Watch

Is J.J. Watt the league's MVP? The dominant Houston Texans defensive end is certainly making a strong case, but he may not have enough to catch a certain quarterback in Wisconsin.

There are three weeks to go in the NFL season, and the awards picture is becoming clearer in many cases. While we may not have a clear winner, as alluded to with Watt's candidacy, the top guys have begun to separate themselves from the rest of the pack.

Here is this week's look at the awards picture in the NFL, predicting winners based on performance and likely voter outcome.

Most Valuable Player

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL MVP Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	1
2	J.J. Watt	DE	Texans	3
3	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	2
4	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	4
5	DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	5

 

Winner: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

It's true. J.J. Watt is the best defensive player in the league, the most dominant we have seen in a while. The problem is that Aaron Rodgers has set himself apart at the most important position in team sports—quarterback. 

There have been 59 winners of the NFL MVP award since its inception in 1957. All but three have been offensive players, 36 of those being quarterbacks. 

The wizard of Lambeau is head and shoulders above the rest of the competition this season, and he is the main reason the Packers are in prime position to grab a first-round bye in the playoffs.

His most recent exploits include 327 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Atlanta Falcons. He extended his streak of interception-free football at home, increasing his league-leading touchdown-to-interception ratio to 35-to-three. 

That is absurdly good, as are his league-leading 8.8 yards per attempt, 119.0 passer rating and 86.3 QBR.

Above all, he eviscerated the Falcons on prime-time television for the world to see, with ESPN announcers Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden gushing about his MVP candidacy.

The fact Rodgers plays for a team leading its division rather than one on the outside of the postseason looking in also helps. Here is what Peter King of The MMQB had to say about that:

"

It would be hard enough for a defensive player to win the award, of course. But on a mediocre team it would be doubly hard.

That’s the case particularly because we’re in the golden age of quarterbacks, and so many of them are playing so well at the position of most influence in football. “Doesn’t the MVP always have to be a quarterback simply by virtue of how the game is played [today]?” asked Schatz. Possibly, but Adrian Peterson, in his 2,096-yard season two years ago, lifted the Vikings into the playoffs with mediocrity all over the roster, and he edged Peyton Manning that year.

"

As good as Watt has been, history is not on his side. Just two defenders have won the award, the last one being Lawrence Taylor back in 1987. He will get votes, but not nearly enough to overcome Rodgers—barring a collapse or injury in the next three weeks, at any rate.

Everyone else is jockeying for third place.

Coach of the Year

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL Coach of the Year Race

Rank	Coach	Team	Last Week
1	Bruce Arians	Cardinals	1
2	Bill Belichick	Patriots	2
3	Jim Caldwell	Lions	3
4	Chip Kelly	Eagles	4
5	Pete Carroll	Seahawks	5

 

Winner: Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals

The next three weeks are going to be a real test for the Arizona Cardinals.

At 10-3, Bruce Arians' squad is poised to make the postseason despite key losses on both sides of the ball and a tough schedule. Unfortunately, a brutal closing stretch could still knock them from the playoffs.

Even if the Cardinals fade and miss the playoffs, it's difficult to imagine anyone else winning this award at this point. Perhaps Jim Caldwell might if the Detroit Lions catch the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North, or enough voters may deem New England's midseason turnaround worthy of awardly praise for Bill Belichick.

Despite technically being in the playoff picture, the Cleveland Browns are in a tailspin and surrounded by controversy. Head coach Mike Pettine has had to deal with issues at quarterback as calls for Johnny Manziel were rebuffed until this week despite Brian Hoyer's increasingly abhorrent play.

Then there is his handling of mercurial receiver Josh Gordon, who hit the ground running after his suspension but was purposefully kept off the field last week because he was rumored to be out of shape, as tweeted by ESPN's Chris Mortensen.

The Browns might exceed expectations by hitting .500, but this late-season slide has helped other coaches move up here.

The new kid on the block is the second-oldest coach in the league—Pete Carroll—though you wouldn't know it by his youthful look and demeanor. 

Carroll's team has overcome a relatively tough start due to some injuriesand perhaps a bit of a Super Bowl hangover—to regain its championship form in recent weeks. The Seattle Seahawks are nipping at Arizona's heels, with a chance to catch the Cardinals in a head-to-head tilt during Week 16.

Offensive Player of the Year

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	2
2	DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	3
3	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	1
4	Le'Veon Bell	RB	Steelers	N/A
5	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	5

 

Winner: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Don't look now, but Le'Veon Bell is coming for this award.

The Pittsburgh Steelers running back has been on a record-breaking tear over the past three weeks, amassing 711 total yards and five touchdowns in that span to vault himself into the conversation for Offensive Player of the Year.

The torrid run has Bell just 74 total yards and one total touchdown behind league-leader DeMarco Murray, who has been a rock at running back for the Dallas Cowboys. 

It's difficult to believe Bell will continue terrorizing opponents at such a ridiculous clip, but a strong finish could see him overtaking Murray for the lead. 

Both players could threaten Chris Johnson's season record of 2,509 yards from scrimmage. Should that happen, they will have a strong case for the award.

Right now, however, quarterback Aaron Rodgers is playing too well to take off the top of this list. True, he may be a front-runner for the MVP—which could give voters perceived license to go a different route here—but Rodgers' incredible efficiency more than makes up for the fact he doesn't quite have the volume numbers of some of his peers.

Defensive Player of the Year

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	J.J. Watt	DE	Texans	1
2	Justin Houston	OLB	Chiefs	2
3	Luke Kuechly	MLB	Panthers	4
4	Von Miller	OLB	Broncos	N/A
5	Darrelle Revis	CB	Patriots	N/A

 

Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans

It really is too bad that Justin Houston is having a career year this season—as far as the Defensive Player of the Year award is concerned, at any rate.

Houston is quite deserving of the honor, but he simply cannot catch J.J. Watt. On the contrary, Watt is running away with the award despite Houston's strong efforts.

Watt was dominant yet again against the Jacksonville Jaguars, amassing three sacks and upping his total to 14.5 on the season, putting some heat on Houston's league-leading 16. 

It's not just sacks, however—Watt has 87 total quarterback pressures this season, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required), by far the most in the league. He has also recovered five fumbles, caught an interception and scored five total touchdowns this season.

We have already discussed Watt as a serious contender for MVP. Why wouldn't he be the clear winner here?

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Leon Halip/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Mike Evans	WR	Buccaneers	1
2	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	Giants	2
3	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Panthers	3
4	Joel Bitonio	OG	Browns	5
5	Isaiah Crowell	RB	Browns	N/A

 

Winner: Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is shaping up to be an epic battle down to the wire.

Mike Evans currently leads all rookies with 935 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns on the season, but there are a few guys in hot pursuit.

Two of those guys—Kelvin Benjamin and Sammy Watkins—have fallen off in recent weeks, but both are within striking distance. The more pressing contender has been on a roll, however—Odell Beckham Jr.

The Giants rookie stumbled out of the gate thanks to injury, but he has made up for lost time in a big way. Beckham has five 100-yard games on the season, and he has had at least seven receptions and 90 yards over his last six games.

Evans will have his hands full fending Beckham off for the award if the latter keeps up that pace.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Aaron Donald	DT	Rams	1
2	C.J. Mosley	ILB	Ravens	2
3	Khalil Mack	OLB	Raiders	3
4	Chris Borland	ILB	49ers	4
5	Preston Brown	OLB	Bills	N/A

 

Winner: Aaron Donald, DT, St. Louis Rams

Another week, another shutout for the Rams and another sack for rookie defensive tackle Aaron Donald.

That marks the fourth consecutive week with a sack for the big man in the middle, who now has seven on the year. That ranks fourth among all defensive tackles, and he has the most out of any rookie defender.

Of course, sack numbers aren't everything, which is why it's far more impressive that Donald continues to lead all defensive tackles over at Pro Football Focus despite having played far fewer snaps than his main competition.

Fellow rookie C.J. Mosley is probably close behind—if not, perhaps, ahead—thanks to some gaudy tackle numbers that were bolstered with another nice performance against the Miami Dolphins last week. 

There is a newcomer here, an unlikely name out of Buffalo.

Bills outside linebacker Preston Brown has been a pleasant surprise this season, filling in nicely for reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Kiko Alonso. The latter was slated to move to the outside before injury struck in the preseason, pressing Brown into starting action.

Brown is currently the top-rated rookie at his position over at PFF, surpassing Minnesota's Anthony Barr. Here is what head coach Doug Marrone recently said of his rookie linebacker, per Matthew Fairburn of Syracuse.com:

"

I really like our linebackers. I think that each one of them brings a lot to the table. I think that Nigel Bradham's having an outstanding year. Preston (Brown) is almost the equivalent to what we had with Kiko (Alonso) last year: A three-down player that has done a lot. I think Brandon Spikes has brought leadership and toughness to our group, so I'm happy with how we're playing at that position.

When you lose someone like Kiko and the year he had, you're thinking about where we go and how we replace him. Then all of the sudden, Preston Brown really popped.

"

He won't seriously challenge for the award, but Brown shoudl be recognized as one of the league's top defensive rookies after a nice season.

NFL Rookie of the Year

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Mike Evans	WR	Buccaneers	1
2	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	Giants	5
3	Aaron Donald	DT	Rams	3
4	C.J. Mosley	ILB	Ravens	4
5	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Panthers	2

 

Winner: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants

Back and forth we go. Who will win, nobody knows?

As mentioned last week, we could well see two different offensive rookies split the Offensive Rookie of the Year and NFL Rookie of the Year awards. Given the contentious nature at the top, that may be what voters want to see.

Odell Beckham Jr. enshrined himself in memory with that wonderful one-handed catch a few weeks ago, an indelible moment that could put him over the top for at least one of the awards.

Comeback Player of the Year

Al Bello/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Rob Gronkowski	TE	Patriots	1
2	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	2
3	Julio Jones	WR	Falcons	3
4	Rolando McClain	LB	Cowboys	4
5	Von Miller	OLB	Broncos	N/A

 

Winner: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

Here is what NFL.com's Chris Wesseling had to say about Gronkowski a few weeks back:

"

Gronkowski has gone from dragging his surgically repaired knee around in August and struggling to separate from defenders in September to dominating the NFL over the past eight weeks. The Patriots are averaging a league-best 40 points per game and haven't lost since Gronkowski recaptured pre-injury form in Week 4. Over the past three years, Tom Brady's production hinges almost entirely on his go-to receiver's health. That's MVP material. If Gronkowski wins the award, he will become the first tight end in history to do so.

"

The big tight end has only bolstered his case since then, and he is a veritable shoo-in for the award at this point.

Fantasy Player of the Year

David Richard/Associated Press

In the Running

Fantasy Football Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week	Fantasy Points
1	DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	1	253.8
2	Rob Gronkowski	TE	Patriots	3	159.7
3	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	5	401.3
4	Le'Veon Bell	RB	Steelers	N/A	240.4
5	Antonio Brown	WR	Steelers	2	204.8

 

Winner: DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys

For all the turnovers we have seen out of Andrew Luck this season, his fantasy scores have been affected relatively little. He is still the top quarterback in fantasy football by a good margin, and he was certainly not the top quarterback taken in most fantasy drafts.

Le'Veon Bell has been making a ton of noise in recent weeks, to the point where he has pulled into second place at his position behind DeMarco Murray. The latter has been far more consistent throughout the year, though—his owners have enjoyed an advantage at running back that nobody else in the league likely saw.

It's likely that Murray takes this award barring a collapse over the next couple of weeks, something we shouldn't expect given how great he has been all season long.

 

All fantasy statistics courtesy of FFToday.com. Unless otherwise stated, all other statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com.

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