Complete Guide to The Ultimate Fighter Season 20 Finale
The day is almost upon us! After 12 episodes of drama and brutality on The Ultimate Fighter, UFC President Dana White will strap a coveted UFC belt around the waist of one of these women on Friday night.
Unlike many recent seasons, the entire cast will return for official UFC bouts, with most of them appearing at the finale on Friday night. In addition to the eight fights featuring the cast, a sure-to-be-exciting bout between KJ Noons and Daron Cruickshank and an interesting featherweight tilt between Jeremy Stephens and Charles Oliveira will also take place.
So what do you need to know entering fight night? Who can you expect to win? Find out here!
Emily Kagan vs. Angela Hill
1 of 11
Division: Women's Strawweight
Records: Emily Kagan (3-1), Angela Hill (1-0)
See it on: Preliminary Card (Fight Pass)
Angela Hill was the only true prospect on TUF20, and that label is a double-edged sword. The 26-year-old muay thai practitioner's drive and potential are not in question. The issue with Hill, as one would expect with any kickboxer who is transitioning into MMA, is that she is susceptible to being grounded and pounded by an experienced wrestler. Emily Kagan, by the way, tends to ground and pound her opponents.
This is a standard grappler vs. striker matchup. If Hill can resist Kagan's takedowns, she should be able to outpoint the Jackson-Winkeljohn-trained fighter in the stand-up. If not, expect Hill to spend minutes on end pinned to the mat.
Prediction: Kagan, Unanimous Decision
Aisling Daly vs. Alex Chambers
2 of 11
Division: Women's Strawweight
Records: Aisling Daly (14-5), Alex Chambers (4-1)
See it on: Preliminary Card (Fight Pass)
Aisling Daly is one of the most experienced fighters of the season and actually one of the few strawweights with an above-average striking and grappling game. While Daly's mental state was questioned on the show (she once suffered from depression), her overall skill set is better than that of the vast majority of potential opponents.
Alex Chambers, in all likelihood, is among that lot. While she owns some solid knockout power, her lacking performance against Rose Namajunas somewhat exposed the holes in her game. While losing to a killer like Namajunas is nothing to be ashamed of, she was utterly dominated both standing and on the ground, which is a clear indictment of her overall game.
While Daly does not have Namajunas' diverse striking arsenal, she still has the overall savvy to beat Chambers in the clinch, on the ground and possibly standing as well. Expect Daly to cement her place as one of the best Irish footholds in the UFC.
Prediction: Daly, Submission, Round 3
Bec Rawlings vs. Heather Jo Clark
3 of 11
Division: Women's Strawweight
Records: Bec Rawlings (5-3), Heather Jo Clark (6-4)
See it on: Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Looking for the top pick for Fight of the Night? It's right here.
Bec Rawlings is one of the best pure boxers on the show and is capable of taking on anybody in the division in an all-striking affair. Heather Jo Clark, meanwhile, is a scrappy brawler who just keeps on going, no matter the circumstances. Neither lady knows how to quit, and that will almost certainly make for a slugfest.
Most pundits are dismissing Clark's chances in this fight, and it is hard to blame them. While she owns an advantage up close and could hypothetically win if she debuts some new cage-cutting skills, that likely won't be the case. Expect Rawlings to outpoint Clark in the center of the cage en route to a unanimous-decision win.
Prediction: Rawlings, Unanimous Decision
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Joanne Calderwood vs. Seo-Hee Ham
4 of 11
Division: Women's Strawweight
Records: Joanne Calderwood (8-0), Seo-Hee Ham (15-5)
See it on: Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Replacing the injured Justine Kish (who threw out her knee during the season) is Korean standout Seo-Hee Ham. And boy, the UFC is not being kind to her.
On top of being asked to move up from atomweight to strawweight, she faces a consensus top-five fighter in Joanne Calderwood. While Ham can conceivably get wins against many notable strawweights in both the UFC and Invicta, it is hard to imagine her being able to contend with the Scot.
Calderwood is a fearsome striker and has "prime" Alistair Overeem-like knees in the clinch. Ham, who does not really have the option to try and stay at range with Calderwood, and also doesn't have an elite-level ground game, won't have much choice but to try and work in the pocket. That, my friends, is not an ideal way to take on Jojo.
Prediction: Calderwood, TKO, Round 1
Tecia Torres vs. Angela Magana
5 of 11
Division: Women's Strawweight
Records: Tecia Torres (4-0), Angela Magana (11-6)
See it on: Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Tecia Torres and Angela Magana, despite their relative lack of success on the show, received more screen time than anyone else. Torres, who was upset in the show's opening by Randa Markos, received a second crack at the belt, advancing to the quarterfinals at the expense of Bec Rawlings.
Magana failed to advance past the opening round of the tournament after getting finished by Aisling Daly but became notable through her constant bullying of her teammates.
Now they fight each other!
While best known for her ability to manufacture drama, Magana is a legitimate fighter who has hung with some of the best ladies in the sport. That said, the impact Torres has made in her short career is astounding, and many of the fighters whom she has already beaten outrank Magana in a profound way. It is hard to believe that Magana will pull off what Rose Namajunas, Paige VanZant and Felice Herrig couldn't.
Prediction: Torres, Unanimous Decision
Felice Herrig vs. Lisa Ellis
6 of 11
Division: Women's Strawweight
Records: Felice Herrig (9-5), Lisa Ellis (15-8)
See it on: Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)
Grapplers vs. strikers is a running theme on this card, and this fight is no exception.
Lisa Ellis is fearsome on the mat. While she silently washed out of the show with a loss to Jessica Penne, she owns serious submission skills and a tough-to-deal-with top game.
Felice Herrig, despite being one of the best-known personalities in the women's strawweight division, is far from being one of its best fighters. In particular, she has historically struggled against solid wrestlers, with losses to Carla Esparza and Barb Honchak on her resume. That leaves her susceptible to being upset by a veteran grappler like Ellis.
If Herrig can remain on her feet, she will take the win with ease, courtesy of her formidable clinch striking. However, if Ellis can score a takedown in two of the three rounds, that likely won't be the case.
Prediction: Herrig, Unanimous Decision
Jessica Penne vs. Randa Markos
7 of 11
Division: Women's Strawweight
Records: Jessica Penne (11-2), Randa Markos (4-1)
See it on: Main Card (Fox Sports 1)
After discussing the prevalence of striker vs. grappler matches on this card, the curtain-jerker happens to be a grappler vs. grappler bout. Jessica Penne, the former Invicta atomweight champion, owns some slick submission skills. Randa Markos, meanwhile, has established herself as one of the strongest, most powerful wrestlers in the division.
This is a fight that could pan out in one of two ways; an intense ground battle or a sloppy kickboxing match. In that way, Penne has more tools to win, with the skills to hang with Markos on the ground and the generally stronger stand-up.
Prediction: Penne, unanimous decision
Joe Proctor vs. Yancy Medeiros
8 of 11
Division: Lightweight
Records: Joe Proctor (10-2), Yancy Medeiros (10-2 (1))
See it on: Main Card (Fox Sports 1)
Joe Proctor and Yancy Medeiros are two lightweights who have shown some glimmers of potential but suffered momentum-stopping losses. Both men own all-around skills, with Proctor slightly favoring his ground game and Medeiros preferring to throw hands. With that said, the two of them are fighting to maintain job security more than anything else.
The sample size for these two is too small to read into too deeply (they have a combined 4-3 (1) UFC record) so it could pan out in any given way. The current outlook, however, favors Medeiros and his superior striking.
Prediction: Medeiros, Unanimous Decision
KJ Noons vs. Daron Cruickshank
9 of 11
Division: Lightweight
Records: KJ Noons (13-7), Daron Cruickshank (16-5)
See it on: Main Card (Fox Sports 1)
In a fight that feels as though it was made in heaven, lightweight strikers Daron Cruickshank and KJ Noons face off in one of the most tantalizing matchups on the card.
Noons owns a highlight reel largely comprised of utterly savage knockouts, courtesy of his ability to deliver fearsome body shots and brilliantly timed right hands. Cruickshank, meanwhile, recently established himself as one of MMA's flashiest strikers with his back-to-back knockouts of Mike Rio and Erik Koch.
This is one of those fights that screams violence, and it almost certainly won't make it to the judges. In these situations, you can usually toss a coin to pick a winner. However, this writer will go ahead and lean in the direction of the more experienced Noons.
Prediction: Noons, Round 2, TKO
Jeremy Stephens vs. Charles Oliveira
10 of 11
Division: Featherweight
Records: Jeremy Stephens (23-10), Charles Oliveira (18-4 (1))
See it on: Main Card (Fox Sports 1)
In the co-main event, Charles Oliveira faces off with Jeremy Stephens.
The matchup is one of polar opposites. Oliveira is a young, fast-rising submission artist, while Stephens is a veteran who gets by on a heavy right hand. Not only that, but Oliveira is coming off one of the best wins of his career, while Stephens is coming off a disappointing loss.
Stylistically, this is all Stephens. His suddenly formidable takedown defense allows him to press the action and keep throwing his deadly fastballs. Oliveira, despite his ground work, just doesn't have the wrestling skills to get things to the mat. That should allow Stephens to just keep throwing haymakers until one of them lands.
It is worth noting, however, that Stephens' UFC career is basically defined by his inability to bounce back after losses. His lightweight career followed a general win-win-win-loss-loss-loss pattern, and he dropped the fight to Cub Swanson following three good wins. If you're a fan of patterns, you might find some smart money on Oliveira...but all other signs point to an emphatic win for Stephens.
Prediction: Stephens, TKO, Round 2
Carla Esparza vs. Rose Namajunas
11 of 11
Division: Women's Strawweight
Records: Carla Esparza (9-2), Rose Namajunas (2-1)
See it on: Main Card (Fox Sports 1)
The subtitle for this season of TUF was true after all! A champion will be crowned with this fight. Invicta champion Carla Esparza faces off with the surging Rose Namajunas. It's a battle in the same vein as the two semi-final fights, with an explosive wrestler facing a crafty submission wizard.
Esparza (the wrestler) won her fight with Penne (the submission whiz) in fairly straightforward fashion, using quick combinations to score points en route to a handy 30-27 decision win. Namajunas (the submission whiz) fought Randa Markos (the wrestler) and used absurd groundwork to lock up a kimura.
Picking this fight comes down to how much you feel Namajunas has developed. The Namajunas fans saw on TUF, with utterly scary groundwork and a diverse striking arsenal, is a mile better than the fighter we saw in July 2013 at Invicta FC 6. It is very possible that Namajunas has eclipsed Esparza at this point, but it is also possible that "Cookie Monster" remains just a bit better.
It could go either way in this writer's book!
Prediction: Esparza, Unanimous Decision
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