NFL Week 14 Picks: Rounding Up Top Experts' Predictions

Follow your heart.

It's almost always good advice, right?

Not so when it comes to picking NFL games. Every single week in this ruthless league, it seems there are a couple of games that have funhouse-mirror versions of the expected scorelines. Emotion won't help, and in some cases, neither will straight logic.

You don't have to go any further back than Week 13 to find shocking results. The Arizona Cardinals led (and still lead) the NFC West, while the Atlanta Falcons were (and still are) representatives of the worst division in football, the NFC South. Surely, that game would be a win for Patrick Peterson and Co. Final score: Falcons 29, Cardinals 16.

The Baltimore Ravens put up 33 points at home against the Chargers in Week 13. In most cases, one could stop reading right there because that sounds like an automatic win for Baltimore and its crushing defense. But of course, we all know the Bolts pipped the Ravens in the final moments of the game and won 34-33.

Making NFL picks requires a clear mind and an indifferent heart, lest your better judgement ultimately ends up clouded. If you're finding it tough to rid yourself of emotional and cognitive biases, take a look at this roundup of predictions from Bleacher Report's NFL experts.

They're capable of the kind of cold-blooded calculus one needs to perform in order to parse out the winners from the losers.

Matchup	Matt Bowen	Mike Freeman	Matt Miller	Ty Schalter	Michael Schottey	Mike Tanier
PIT at CIN	PIT	PIT	CIN	PIT	CIN	CIN
STL at WAS	STL	WAS	STL	STL	STL	STL
NYG at TEN	NYG	TEN	NYG	TEN	NYG	NYG
CAR at NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO	NO
NYJ at MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	NYJ	MIN
BAL at MIA	BAL	BAL	BAL	BAL	MIA	MIA
IND at CLE	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	CLE
TB at DET	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET
HOU at JAX	HOU	HOU	HOU	JAX	HOU	HOU
BUF at DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN
KC at AZ	AZ	KC	AZ	AZ	KC	AZ
SEA at PHI	SEA	SEA	PHI	SEA	PHI	SEA
SF at OAK	SF	SF	SF	SF	SF	SF
NE at SD	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE	NE
ATL at GB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB

Note: You can view the picks from all of Bleacher Report's experts here. 

Top Games to Watch

New England Patriots (9-3) at San Diego Chargers (8-4)

Gail Burton/Associated Press

This is the best quarterback matchup of Week 14. It features December Philip Rivers, a winter variety of top-tier quarterback with a 33-6 career record in the last month of the year, squaring off against Tom Brady, a man for all seasons.

Rivers has a 102.8 quarterback rating this season and is the key to the Chargers' chances of holding off a rabid pack of 7-5 teams and securing an AFC wild-card spot. New England is ranked 16th in pass defense efficiency, per Football Outsiders. That bodes well for Rivers, who is coming off a three-touchdown, 383-yard performance against the Ravens.

"They pose a lot of problems. I see another high-powered, explosive offense led by the quarterback and the quarterback-driven system," said Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, via the Boston Herald's Karen Guregian.

Part of Rivers' recent return to form is due to a renewed telepathic connection with wideout Keenan Allen, who has amassed 25 catches for 288 yards and three touchdowns in his past three games. His athleticism was on display against the Ravens, per NFL on CBS:

Fortunately for the Patriots, they have just the man to shut him down in cornerback Darrelle Revis, who will be Allen's toughest test since matching up against Miami's Brent Grimes in Week 10. If Revis does his part, Rivers might not be able to keep up with Brady.

The Chargers could also have major issues on the offensive line. According to U-T San Diego's Michael Gehlken, mammoth right tackle D.J. Fluker suffered a concussion in practice on Wednesday. 

Losing a fantastic run-blocker such as Fluker and relying on an inexperienced center to call out line adjustments could very well slow down Ryan Mathews, who has been in fine form since returning from injury.

As Gehlken notes, the Chargers are already working on an issue in the center of the offensive line:

"

Along with possibly Fluker, the Chargers line could be out a second starter.

Center Chris Watt (calf) has yet to practice this week. If inactive, Trevor Robinson is expected to become the Chargers' fifth starting center this year. They started just one center, Nick Hardwick, the previous four seasons.

"

Working with center No. 5 in the midst of a playoff run is a true absurdity, one that could be difficult to overcome without any noticeable impact on the field.

The communication between a center and a quarterback is crucial, so Rivers' production could also dip if he and Robinson aren't on the same page. Of course, if either Watt or Fluker is able to play, the potential impact on the Chargers offense is limited considerably.

The Bolts have the 30th-ranked defense in terms of overall efficiency, per Football Outsiders. Brandon Flowers is a fine cornerback, but he won't be working against the Pats' top target, tight end Rob Gronkowski. He's a worldbeater with 910 yards and nine touchdowns this season. Gronk will have no trouble getting open in Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday night. 

Tom Lynn/Associated Press

The Patriots run game, whether it's Jonas Gray or LeGarrette Blount or whoever else leading the charge, should be able to make life difficult for the Bolts and keep the Patriots offense moving. There is no stopping the Brady-Gronkowski connection, so the Chargers would be wise to key in on the run.

It may not be pretty, though, as the Bolts have allowed opponents to average 4.3 yards per carry and score eight rushing touchdowns this season, per ESPN.com.

Then again, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is the kind of coach who will lock up an opposing team's best-laid plans and throw away its keys to the game. Look for him to outwit Chargers head coach Mike McCoy and ensure the Pats come out on top with a crucial road win.

Prediction: Patriots 31-24 Chargers

Seattle Seahawks (8-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (9-3)

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

This could very well be a career-defining game for the Eagles' Mark Sanchez. Thrust into the starting role when Nick Foles broke his collarbone in early November, the fifth-year pro has performed admirably, throwing eight touchdowns against six interceptions in five games this season.

He is the key to the Eagles' hopes of beating the Seattle Seahawks and staying ahead of the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC North. The 'Boys beat the Chicago Bears 41-28 on Thursday, so there can be no major letdowns in the final quarter of the season.

The Seahawks pass defense isn't quite what it was in 2013, but it's still one of the best in the league. Quarterbacks have put up a collective 85.9 rating against Seattle this season, per ESPN.com.

John F. Rhodes/Associated Press

Sanchez would be wise to avoid Richard Sherman at all costs. The feisty corner is coming off one of his best games of the year, notching two interceptions in the Seahawks' Week 13 win over the San Francisco 49ers. 

ESPN's Colin Cowherd is a fan of Sherman's exploits:

Coach Chip Kelly will need to coax another fine performance out of running back LeSean McCoy and ease the pressure on Sanchez. ESPN Stats & Information noted how the strong rushing attack against the Cowboys on Thanksgiving helped Sanchez on play action:

"

The strong running attack helped Mark Sanchez on play-action plays. Sanchez was 6-of-9 for 61 yards and threw his only touchdown off play-action fakes, and he didn’t even attempt a non-play-action pass in the second half. 

Play action has been vital for Sanchez. The only quarterback this season with a worse touchdown-interception differential on non-play-action passes than Sanchez (-3) is Blake Bortles (-6). 

"

It doesn't help that the beleaguered Sanchez's opposite in this game is Russell Wilson, one of the coolest customers in the NFL. A strong pass rush from linebacker Connor Barwin and Co. will be an absolute necessity in this game, as Wilson can beat teams with both his arm and his legs.

Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images

Kelly noted some of Barwin's best attributes when it was announced he was named NFC Defensive Player of the Month for November, via Philly.com's Les Bowen:

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He'll be the first to tell you that some of his sacks were the result of maybe Fletcher Cox stunting out, taking up two blockers, and he's coming off of it in a twist game. But also, we'll do the same exact thing (with Barwin, allowing someone else to go free). That and the fact that Billy (Davis, the defensive coordinator), can move him around and put him in a lot of different spots, I think, puts him in situations where he can make plays.

"

Of course, a diabolical pass rush is often mitigated by a good power running game. The Seahawks have one of the best halfbacks between the tackles in Marshawn Lynch. His ability to grind out tough yards, chew up the clock and open up the pass against the league's 11th-ranked rushing defense will be one of the keys to the game.

Expect a shaky Sanchez to open the door for the Seahawks to snatch an early lead and come up with a huge road win.

Prediction: Seahawks 27-21 Eagles