Oregon Football Preview Week 4

Last week I predicted that the Ducks would have to earn it in the fourth quarter against a feisty Fresno State team—and Oregon proved me dead wrong.

It was long over by the time the fourth quarter rolled around. Once again, the Duck’s spread option offense performed admirably, putting up over three hundred yards on the ground against the Bulldogs, led by over a hundred sixty by star tailback Jonathon Stewart, including an impressive “I am faster than all of you and I am going to prove it” 88 yard touchdown run to set a new Autzen stadium record.

Dennis Dixon and his receivers didn’t put on a repeat clinic of their demolition of Michigan, but still got the job done, with tight end Ed Dickson recording three catches and his first career touchdown in an offense that is not usually tight end friendly.

But perhaps more impressive for Duck’s fans was the job done by Oregon’s defense, holding the Bulldogs to 21 points, seven of them in “garbage time,” and more importantly stiffening against the run and only allowing 60 net yards on the ground after weak showings against Houston and the Wolverines.

Perhaps more shocking than the Duck’s domination of the Bulldogs was Stanford’s performance against San Jose State, who the Cardinal beat 37-0. I’m just going to wait a moment and let that sink in: Stanford shut someone out.

For the first time in seemingly forever, Stanford won the battle in the trenches and produced over a hundred yards rushing while holding their opponents under the century mark. True, this was all against a reloading WAC squad, and true, the Spartans were using a tailback that had to convert from defense due to injuries to the starting ball carriers. But the fact remains that the Cardinal put together a solid effort in all facets of the game under new coach Jim Harbaugh. Whether they can repeat that performance against a talented Oregon unit remains to be seen.

The key for the Ducks this week is going to have to be focus. There is no question who the better team is on paper, but that does not guarantee a win (see Arizona against New Mexico last week, or just remember the name Appalachian State). It is tempting for fans to assume another dominant performance and look ahead to next week's payback match against California at Autzen stadium. But the team on the field cannot afford to not take care of business against a highly motivated Cardinal squad.

Beyond simply making sure they bring their A game to Palo Alto, the Ducks must continue to show improvement against the run. Stanford’s experienced, talented receiving corps will be a challenge even for a talented Oregon secondary, and if the safeties have to worry about run support, play action could allow the Cardinal to make big plays at key moments.

Stanford is not a strong running team, and if Oregon wants to win they can’t let this weakness go unexploited. It is in Oregon’s interest to come out firing in the first quarter and get an early lead. Despite what happened last week, this is still a Cardinal team that is used to losing football games—smack them in the mouth out of the gate and they may not want to come back for more. If the offense avoids turning the ball over and special teams mishaps, and Oregon’s defense keeps Stanford one dimensional so they can pin their ears back and rattle T.C. Ostrander, the Ducks should have too much firepower for Stanford to handle.

My Call: Oregon Ducks 42, Stanford Cardinal 21

 

Conference Calls

 
Arizona at California

So much for the Wildcats putting up Texas Tech like offensive numbers—turnovers and three and outs have continued the plague Arizona throughout the season so far, and the vaunted defense has not played up to expectations leading to an upset loss to Four Corners rivals the New Mexico Lobos last Saturday.

Though you wouldn’t know it if you listened to head coach Jeff Tedford of Cal, who handily defeated Louisiana Tech last weekend despite a very average day from DeSean Jackson. If the Golden Bears tighten up their execution, they simply have too many weapons for the Wildcats to cope with.

The key for Arizona to pull off an upset will be improved defensive play, especially by the highly touted secondary against Cal’s deadly receivers (DeSean Jackson matching up against Antoine Cason should be a great show).  Arizona must avoid turnovers  at all costs—against a team with Cal’s offense, nobody can afford to give Longshore, Forcett, and company a short field, and especially not when your team is struggling as much as Arizona has been.

 
Washington State at Southern California

The Trojans regained the nation’s admiration after dominating Nebraska on the road—now they return to the comfort of the Coliseum to begin Pac-10 play.

Alex Brink, Michael Bumpus and the rest of the Cougars’ receivers have the ability to make plays against USC’s secondary, but if the Trojans can dominate the line of scrimmage like they did in Omaha, WSU won’t see the ball enough to make it competitive.

Last year in Pullman the Cougars made it close, and if their defense can surprise it could be close once again—but I can’t help but think that USC’s tailback herd will find a way to move up and down the field for a second straight week.

 
Oregon State at Arizona State

Dennis Erickson’s crowning achievement during his tenure with the Beavers came in Arizona, with the wipe out of Notre Dame. Now he reunites with his old squad near the scene of their triumph on the other sideline.

Watch out for two of the conferences premier tailbacks (the Beavers' Yvenson Bernard and the Sun Devils' Ryan Torrain) to try to carry their teams to victory. This is probably the toughest game this weekend to predict, as both teams have improved over their non-conference schedules and have strong points to lean on. I give ASU the edge for home field and a more consistent passing game, but Riley beating out his one time successor’s team would not shock me, especially if Bernard can have a big game and OS (they’ve decided not to use a "U" on the end any more) keeps it close enough in the fourth quarter for Alexis Serna to work his magic.

 
Washington at California Los Angeles

Another tough call down south, with both teams coming off of disappointing outings after building up high expectations. It is tough to say who will win this because we only know that the Washington Huskies are playing—who their opponent will be is still up in the air.

Will it be the UCLA Bruins that dominated Stanford and finished off Brigham Young with a swift, swarming defense and balanced offensive execution? Or the tackle missing/interception throwing/fumble losing junior varsity squad that Utah beat up on last week?

As much as it galls me as a Ducks fan to say this, I give the Huskies the edge based on their stronger schedule and talented freshman QB Jake Locker, who could give the Bruins fits if they had so much trouble with the Utes' mobile signal callers.