NFL Week 14 Picks: Final Predictions and Over-Under Odds Before Thursday Night

Headed into the final month, the race to the NFL playoffs resembles a giant mosh pit. Seven AFC wild-card contenders sit at either 8-4 or 7-5, while the automatic playoff berth for the NFC South champion leaves at least one NFC team currently sitting 8-4 or better out of the postseason entirely.

Week 14 should provide some more clarity, as a whopping seven games will pit teams with winning records against each other. The Ravens-Dolphins and Seahawks-Eagles matchups are among those that are going to produce massive ripple effects throughout their respective conferences, providing this Sunday with the feel of a playoff round come early.

From a betting perspective, the games are tougher to predict this week, since many contests are essentially coin flips. But while linemakers may profit overall, that does not mean the over-under crowd cannot continue to exploit sneaky favorable lines.

Using the updated odds from Odds Shark, let's provide an early forecast for all 16 games on the docket, highlighting a trio of games you should pounce on before the lines move.

Matchup	O/U	Pick
Dallas at Chicago	51.5	Over
St. Louis at Washington	44.5	Under
Houston at Jacksonville	42	Over
NY Giants at Tennessee	45.5	Under
Tampa Bay at Detroit	41.5	Over
Carolina at New Orleans	49.5	Under
Indianapolis at Cleveland	49.5	Under
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati	47	Over
NY Jets at Minnesota	40.5	Over
Baltimore at Miami	44.5	Under
Kansas City at Arizona	40	Over
Buffalo at Denver	47.5	Over
San Francisco at Oakland	41	Under
Seattle at Philadelphia	48	Under
New England at San Diego	51	Over
Atlanta at Green Bay	55.5	Under

Cowboys vs. Bears (Over 51.5)

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It's a little puzzling to see this line relatively low, as Dallas vs. Chicago seemed like a legitimate candidate for highest over-under line of the season. Both rank among the worst six teams in terms of yards per play allowed, and with a pair of big-play passing games, a bevy of long scores figure to occur on Thursday night.

There's also not the variable of short rest to worry about. Since both squads played on Thanksgiving, this Thursday game is essentially a normal week. The data from this season suggests that extra rest is important, as teams are averaging 5.3 yards per play on Thursday, versus 5.5 on Sunday and 5.7 on Monday, per Pro-Football-Reference.

That sounds like a minor difference, but consider that the Atlanta Falcons average 5.7 yards per play and are ranked 10th, while the 18th-ranked Bears average 5.3. The gap there is meaningful, and though the extra rest should help dinged-up defenders such as Rolando McClain and Kyle Fuller get healthier, it seems like the rest provides equal, if not more benefit to the offense.

Therefore, expect the game to soar past the current over-under line. This game should feature plenty of long possessions and defenses hemorrhaging yards; as long as the offenses do not repeatedly stall out in the red zone, 51.5 points seems like a low combined score.

Colts vs. Browns (Under 49.5)

Though Andrew Luck and the Indy offense can explode at any moment, it takes two competent offenses to reach this lofty threshold. However, considering how stagnant the Browns have been offensively the past month, it seems unlikely that they will chip in enough to push this game to the overs.

Now that Mike Pettine has made the decision to stick with Brian Hoyer at quarterback, Cleveland seems unlikely to exploit the lack of speed in Indy's secondary. Hoyer's presence almost certainly assures that this game remains under; the Browns have hit the under line in seven of their past eight games under the slumping Hoyer, per PFR. However, despite Pettine's decision, many pundits are still wondering if it will soon be time to turn to rookie Johnny Manziel:

It's not inconceivable that Hoyer gets the plug again, though. Based on his preseason tape, the Colts would employ a spy (perhaps rangy middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman) to contain Manziel in the pocket and blitz to force the ball out of his hands.

That's the type of high-pressure scheme that has given the other rookie quarterbacks issues this year, and given Indy's lack of elite pass-rushers, blitzing is the most logical avenue toward generating pressure, regardless of who is at quarterback.

Luck doesn't seem likely to carry this line over on his own. Despite suffering a rash of injuries—including devastating ones to Karlos Dansby and Tashaun Gipson—the Browns have been stingy at home all year, never allowing more than 24 points. Barring an unexpected explosive performance from Cleveland's quarterback, this line looks a few points too high.

Seahawks vs. Eagles (Under 48)

This line looks like an instance of Vegas underrating the recent improvements by both defenses.  According to PFR, the Seahawks and Eagles rank sixth and 16th respectively in terms of yards allowed per play over the past month.

Philly's ranking is affected by its 53-point debacle at Lambeau Field, but as the team demonstrated on Thanksgiving, the Eagles' supremely underrated front seven allows them to control the line of scrimmage.

That's particularly vital against a Seahawks team that runs the ball on 50.8 percent of its plays—the highest percentage in the league, according to TeamRankings.com. Seattle employs a similar zone-blocking scheme that the Eagles just wrecked against Dallas, which doesn't bode well for the Seahawks' offensive production.

In Fletcher Cox, Bennie Logan and Cedric Thornton, Philadelphia possesses a trio of throwback two-gapping 3-4 linemen who should be able to limit Marshawn Lynch on Sunday.

On the flip side, the Seahawks defense has started to resemble its Super Bowl-winning unit due to improved health. Since Bobby Wagner and Kam Chancellor returned to the lineup two games ago, the Seahawks have conceded six total points while allowing a preposterously minuscule 3.7 yards per play. 

Though offensive stars like Lynch, LeSean McCoy and Russell Wilson will receive top billing, the defenses are the two best units in this game. Therefore, expect a relatively low-scoring contest from Lincoln Financial Field when a pair of peaking defenses clash.