Duke vs. Wisconsin Film Study: Mismatches That Hold the Key to Top 5 Showdown

The nonconference season's most high-profile game will take place Wednesday when fourth-ranked Duke travels to second-ranked Wisconsin for a battle between the two best offenses in college basketball.

Neither team has faced an opponent that presents the challenges that both will deal with on the defensive end on Wednesday night. Games like this can often be determined by some unpredictable X-factor, but the coaches putting together the game plan will likely zero in on one potential mismatch.

When the Blue Devils have the ball, it would make sense to have freshman wing Justise Winslow go after junior forward Sam Dekker on his bad wheel—he has a nagging ankle injury that forced him to miss practice on Monday, according to Jim Polzin of the Wisconsin State Journal.

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

For the Badgers, senior center Frank Kaminsky should be licking his chops at the possibilities of being guarded by Duke freshman center Jahlil Okafor.

Let's start with the Kaminsky-Okafor matchup because it has the possibility of being the most lopsided.

Okafor was expected to be a star on the offensive end from the get-go at the college level. But he's never been known as a great defender, and some struggles were expected.

He has actually been respectable on the defensive end so far this season. He's held his ground in the paint, and the Blue Devils have wisely not asked too much of him when it comes to perimeter defense. They've also not faced a big man who can stroke it like Kaminsky.

Okafor's strategy when his man leaves the paint so far has been to stay back and close late when it's obvious a shot is going up, as seen below:

Credit: truTV screen shot

The Badgers could really expose Okafor in the pick-and-pop game with Kaminsky.

Duke has had Okafor play a contain role against ball screens. When his man has set a screen, he sags back and allows his teammate plenty of room to get around the screen while he clogs up the paint to try to discourage the ball-handler from driving into the lane:

Credit: truTV screen shot

This is a fine strategy when Okafor is guarding a non-shooter. He has time to recover if his man rolls to the bucket. But when the screener decides to pop out to the perimeter, as seen here, he is wide open and has plenty of time to get off a shot, as Okafor isn't exactly fleet of foot:

Credit: truTV screen shot

This is playing with fire when it comes to Kaminsky, who is a 40.7 percent three-point shooter and also has the ability to attack off the bounce if Okafor tries to close hard.

The best strategy for Duke could be to not have Okafor guard Kaminsky at all and instead opt for the quicker Amile Jefferson to check him.

But then Okafor would likely be guarding Nigel Hayes, and Hayes presents the same challenges. He's an improved jump-shooter and has been deadly as a roll man in pick-and-rolls—scoring or getting fouled on all five opportunities he's had thus far this season, via Synergy's data (subscription required).

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

So what's the solution? It would be a bit of a surprise, but Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski could elect to go zone when Okafor is on the floor.

The Blue Devils played a lot of zone in their opener against Presbyterian, but the Badgers aren't exactly the ideal team to zone. They've fared well against zone in limited opportunities this season and ranked second in the country in scoring efficiency against zones last year, according to Synergy's numbers.

But don't sweat it too much, Blue Devils. The good news for Coach K's bunch is it can combat a few defensive weaknesses with the most efficient offense in the country, as rated by KenPom.com, and a nightmare of a matchup in Winslow.

While Okafor has been as good as advertised thus far, there's an argument to be made that Winslow has been Duke's best player in most games. He's definitely Duke's top defender and has brought a much-needed toughness on that end, but he's also been a better-than-expected scorer with a respectable jumper—39.1 percent from deep—and a mean slashing game.

This is not the man you want to guard with a hobbled defender, but the Badgers don't really have a choice.

Dekker has held up pretty well so far. The ankle hasn't appeared to slow him down much, and he's made the adjustment to playing more on the perimeter this season pretty seamlessly. He moves his feet well and can make up for any kind of quickness disadvantage by playing off a few feet because of his length.

But one adjustment he hasn't made that well has been defending ball screens.

Dekker has tried to fight over the top of most screens, and he's ended up either playing a step from behind or running right into the screen: 

Credit: Big Ten Network

Dekker has also been beaten several times this season trying to take a cheat step over the screen, and when he's leaned that way, the ball-handler has denied the screen and driven the other direction:

Credit: Big Ten Network screen shot

Winslow's first priority off the bounce is to always try to get to the rim. What makes him really difficult to slow in ball screens is that he's shown the ability to drive around the screen or deny it and go the opposite way. And if you go under, that doesn't detour him because then he just has a head of steam and can drive downhill:

Credit: truTV screen shot

Even with the lane as crowded as it was, once Winslow began his drive in the play above he was still able to navigate his way into the paint and score. All he needs is a small opening, and if the defense collapses, Winslow has plenty of options on the perimeter to pass out to for open threes.

This is why Duke and Wisconsin are so hard to guard. They both space the floor really well, have great one-on-one scorers and have knockdown shooters who will burn you when left open. 

Neither team is prone to turnovers, so the game will mostly be played in the half court. That puts a premium on execution, especially late in the shot clock. And in those situations, that's when mismatches are usually attacked.

Both teams could end up trying to exploit these weaknesses only a handful of times, but they are so evenly matched that those possessions could end up being the difference one way or the other.

How these two great coaches adjust in the chess game will be fun to watch.

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.