Power Ranking the College Basketball Conferences in 2014-15
In our first in-season power ranking of the college basketball conferences, the Big 12 edges out the Big Ten, Big East and ACC in what should prove to be a very debatable margin.
In honor of the ongoing ACC/B1G Challenge, the idea for power ranking these conferences was to ask which conference would win if its top five teams (in order) and its bottom five teams (in order) were to play against the identically ranked teams in every other conference.
With Kentucky at the top, the SEC is pretty much guaranteed one win against every conference, but wouldn't it go, at best, 3-7 against each of the other power conferences?
How unfair is it that the Big 12 would get to pit Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma State against the bottom feeders of other conferences? Kansas, Texas and Iowa State would have their hands full with the top teams in the ACC, but the ACC's Clemson, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech have virtually no hope against the aforementioned "bottom feeders" in the Big 12.
Ask hypothetical questions like those about a hundred times and you'll get the idea.
Wouldn't it be great if the top four or five conferences played a round-robin tournament of this ilk every February?
The Bottom 12
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We'll take a more in-depth look at the top 20 conferences, but we're merely listing the bottom dozen while parenthetically suggesting who we would want from that conference if absolutely forced to pick one team to win any given game.
32. Southwestern Athletic (Alabama State)
31. Northeast (St. Francis PA)
30. Mid-Eastern Athletic (North Carolina Central)
29. Southland (Stephen F. Austin)
28. Southern (Wofford)
27. Big South (High Point)
26. America East (Stony Brook)
25. Western Athletic (New Mexico State)
24. Patriot (Army)
23. Metro Atlantic Athletic (Iona)
22. Ohio Valley (Belmont)
21. Summit League (IPFW)
20. Atlantic Sun
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Torch Bearers
Without question, Florida Gulf Coast (6-1) is the best thing going for the Atlantic Sun. Not only do we know the Eagles because of their Cinderella run in the 2013 NCAA tournament, but they already have wins this season against UC Santa Barbara and San Francisco. They play tough defense and have an exceptional point guard in Brett Comer.
Depth
This is only an eight-team conference, and most of the teams are pretty bad. USC Upstate has a little bit of spunk, though. Led by the senior backcourt of Ty Greene and Fred Miller, the Spartans are averaging nearly 12 steals per game; however, 23 of them came against D-II Bob Jones University.
What to Watch For
Could FGCU run the table, and what happens if the Eagles falter in the A-Sun tournament?
They still play nonconference games against Massachusetts, Pittsburgh, Xavier, Iona and another game against UC Santa Barbara—all away from home. They should enter their 14-game conference schedule with a strong computer profile, but could it possibly be good enough for this to be a two-bid league?
19. Colonial Athletic
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Torch Bearers
Led by Scott Eatherton, Northeastern (5-1) is the team to beat. The Huskies already have a road win over Florida State and an impressive 14-point neutral-court win over Manhattan. Once they stop turning the ball over 16.2 times per night, they could be a legitimate mid-major sleeper.
Depth
We wouldn't call it quality depth, but the Colonial has a lot of second-tier teams that should eventually produce a contender.
Hofstra is my guess to emerge from the pack, as Joe Mihalich attempts to capture lightning in a bottle with four leading scorers who were each playing for a D-I school other than Hofstra two seasons ago. He has become the Fred Hoiberg of the minor conferences.
What to Watch For
Drexel's Damion Lee is some kind of special scorer. He tore his ACL less than a month into last season, but the year before that he averaged 17.1 points per game as a freshman. Colorado and Miami were able to keep him in check, but he has scored at least 22 points in four of six games. He has a chance to lead the nation in scoring.
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18. Big Sky
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Torch Bearers
Eastern Washington (6-1) was already going to be the Big Sky's top dog this season, but the Eagles really drove that point home with a road win over Indiana last week. Tyler Harvey (21.0 PPG) and Venky Jois (19.6 PPG) are leading the way as one of the best offensive shooting guard/power forward duos in the country.
Depth
Whereas Eastern Washington likes to play games in the 80s, Weber State can slow the game down and take you to task. Portland State is another potential threat out of the Big Sky as a team that very rarely commits turnovers.
What to Watch For
Don't kid yourself: You're checking Big Sky box scores to see what Harvey is up to. He averaged 21.8 points per game last year and is already shooting 45.9 percent from three-point range this year. If Damion Lee doesn't lead the nation in scoring, it's probably because Harvey outdid him.
17. Ivy League
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Torch Bearers
What was once unthinkable is now the norm, as Harvard (4-1) continues to be the Ivy League's best shot at an NCAA tournament upset. Led by Siyani Chambers and Wesley Saunders for what feels like the 12th straight year, the Crimson should have minimal difficulty reaching at least 20 wins for a sixth consecutive season.
Depth
Things get really ugly in the bottom half of this eight-team conference, but the Ivy League is more than just Harvard beating up on a bunch of bookworms. If Justin Sears had been able to get anything going against Providence, he and Javier Duren would have paced Yale to a big upset last week. Even without that win, the Bulldogs are 6-2 and should serve as a serious threat to Harvard.
What to Watch For
Can Saunders legitimately get into the Wooden Award discussion before becoming just the second Harvard alumnus to play a game in the NBA in the past 60 years?
He was listed as one of the 50 preseason candidates for the award, and he has not disappointed. Through five games, Saunders is averaging 21.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.8 steals per game.
After his most recent performance against Massachusetts, Minutemen head coach Derek Kellogg said, "He's probably the best player in their league and maybe one of the better players in New England, if not across the country."
16. Sun Belt
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Torch Bearers
The nonconference schedule has not been particularly kind to Georgia State (5-2), but the Panthers are the head of the Sun Belt class. There might not be a better scoring punch in the nation at the 1 and 2 than Ryan Harrow (20.3 PPG) and R.J. Hunter (22.9 PPG). Compared to the rest of the conference, they might as well be Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant.
Depth
Whether there's any depth in this conference may depend on Louisiana-Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns have stumbled out of the gate to a 2-3 record, but they're adjusting to life without Elfrid Payton and have played the past couple of games without Shawn Long as well. They're a work in progress, but they should eventually join Georgia Southern on the short list of teams that might be able to contend with Georgia State.
What to Watch For
Georgia State's Jelani Hewitt might mess around and flirt with a quadruple-double this year. In the season opener against Illinois, he had 22 points, eight rebounds, eight assists and three steals. Against a team like Louisiana-Lafayette that plays at a lightning pace, he has a chance.
15. Big West
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Torch Bearers
Now we're getting into the conferences with multiple legitimate contenders. For my money, though, UC Santa Barbara (3-3) is the cream of the Big West crop. Led by Alan Williams—aka the king of double-doubles—the Gauchos have hung with very tough opponents away from home in the form of Kansas, Colorado State and Florida Gulf Coast.
They may have a .500 record right now, but let's not penalize the Gauchos for aggressive scheduling. They'll be at or near the top of the conference standings at the end of the year.
Depth
Long Beach State already has wins over Kansas State and Xavier, and UC Irvine was ahead of Arizona on the road with less than 10 minutes remaining in the game. Throw in Hawaii's win over Pittsburgh, and there are four teams atop the Big West who can do some serious damage.
What to Watch For
Cal State Northridge, UC Santa Barbara and UC Irvine all play at Oregon in the latter half of December. Those games will give us a sense of whether Oregon has what it takes to dance this year.
Also, find a way to watch the battles between Williams and Mamadou N'Diaye on the last day of January and February. Williams is a 6'8" center who works his butt off night in and night out. N'Diaye is a 7'6" behemoth who can block shots without even leaving his feet.
14. Conference USA
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Torch Bearers
UTEP (4-1) has looked great in the early stages of the season. The Miners nearly won the Wooden Legacy and already have wins over Xavier and New Mexico State. Sophomore forward Vince Hunter is averaging 18.4 points and 12.6 rebounds per game. He has recorded a double-double in each of UTEP's first five contests.
Hunter has already been named the C-USA Player of the Week twice this season.
Depth
The bottom half of this conference is pretty appalling. Rice lost by double digits to D-II Alaska-Anchorage, and the Owls still might be better than Texas-San Antonio.
The top four teams, though, are solid. If we accept UTEP at No. 1, Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion and Charlotte are very close behind the Miners in some order. This has been a one-bid league for the past two years, but Conference USA might send at least three teams to the tournament for the first time in more than a decade.
What to Watch For
Can Louisiana Tech finally fulfill expectations?
Raheem Appleby looks healthy for the first time in at least two years. Michale Kyser is a shot-blocking machine in the paint. Kenneth Smith might lead the nation in assists. But we've witnessed this song and dance in each of the last two seasons, only to have the Bulldogs play in the NIT.
13. Horizon League
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Torch Bearers
Green Bay (5-1) was one of the biggest snubs from the 2014 NCAA tournament, and Keifer Sykes is back for his final year in hopes of leading the Phoenix to the promised land for the first time since 1996. They won the Gulf Coast Showcase last week, beating East Carolina, Evansville and Florida Gulf Coast in the process—all quality mid-major programs.
Depth
The Horizon League hasn't packed the same type of punch since Butler left a few years ago, but there are a few teams in this conference that can really ball. Valparaiso has jumped out to a 7-1 start—albeit without really playing anyone. Detroit already has three losses but was competitive in road games against Oregon and Michigan. And Cleveland State is always a threat to make some noise.
What to Watch For
What happens if Oakland figures out how to play even a little bit of defense?
The Golden Grizzlies have been dreadful defenders for the past several years, but they can make it rain from three-point range with the best of them. They have scored at least 70 points in each game this season. With road games still forthcoming against Arizona, Maryland, Michigan State and Pittsburgh, they should carry a respectable RPI into the conference schedule.
12. Mid-American
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Torch Bearers
With three undefeated teams and a preseason favorite (Toledo) that has already suffered four losses, it's tough to say who the top team is in the MAC. Let's give the honor to Buffalo (4-1), though, as the Bulls are the only team to lose to Kentucky by less than 20 points.
At the time, it was crazy that Kentucky was struggling so much with Bobby Hurley's club, but Buffalo is looking pretty strong less than three full weeks into the season.
Depth
What the MAC lacks in a clear favorite it makes up for with depth. Team No. 1 probably loses to most of the torch bearers we've already encountered, but it's pretty hard to argue with Akron, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan and Kent State as teams No. 4 through No. 7. Bowling Green (4-0) has also already been a pleasant surprise in Chris Jans' first season as a head coach.
What to Watch For
What can Saul Phillips do with Ohio?
Fresh off a great run with North Dakota State in which the team improved in four consecutive seasons, Phillips takes over a Bobcats program that has won at least 19 games in nine of the past 10 years. If he can keep Ohio in good shape, this is a conference that legitimately goes eight or nine deep with teams that could pull off a big upset in March.
11. American Athletic
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Torch Bearers
We've already definitively written off Connecticut's chances of repeating as national champions, but the Huskies (3-2) are absolutely the team to beat here. Once Ryan Boatright finds a reliable sidekick or two, Connecticut might go undefeated in conference play.
Depth
Seeing the American in 11th place might seem harsh, but have you actually looked at what this "major" conference is bringing to the table?
Who is the second-best team in the AAC? Memphis, SMU and Tulsa have each gotten out to a horrible start to the year, so it's probably Cincinnati—and the Bearcats just lost by double digits to the only top-100 team they have played (Ole Miss).
Even if you cut the worst team and made the AAC a 10-team conference, it would likely go 0-10 against either the Big East or Big 12 if paired off against each other in order of conference hierarchy.
What to Watch For
Who actually rises up from this conference to claim an at-large bid? No matter how weak the teams beyond Connecticut are, there will inevitably be (at least) a second team from the AAC that finds its way into the tournament conversation.
Could Temple be that team once Will Cummings and Quenton DeCosey start even remotely fulfilling their potential?
10. Atlantic 10
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Torch Bearers
With two losses last week, VCU (5-2) is trying like heck to pass the torch, but no one else seems fully qualified for the role yet. For now, the Rams remain the team against which all other A-10 squads are judged. We'll see if they can remember how to force steals with that patented pressure defense.
Depth
There may not be another No. 1 or even a surefire No. 2, but the A-10 is loaded with third-tier teams—teams that might never crack the Top 25 but will definitely be in the tournament discussion. Teams like Dayton, Massachusetts, George Washington and maybe even Rhode Island. Those Rams did score a win over Nebraska already this season.
Richmond also belongs in that club despite a 2-3 record to open the year. All three of the Spiders' losses came in close fashion on the road against quality teams.
What to Watch For
Can Cady Lalanne stay hot this year?
Massachusetts' big man is averaging a double-double, but he put up similar numbers over the first half of last season before devolving from Thomas the Tank Engine to Casper the Ghost. He and Maxie Esho are the beginning and the end of the interior game for the Minutemen, and they'll be lost in January and February if he disappears again.
9. Mountain West
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Torch Bearers
For most of the 2010s, San Diego State (5-1) has been the best team in the Mountain West, and that still holds true this season. A West Coast version of Virginia (or is Virginia an East Coast version of San Diego State?), the Aztecs have an unbelievable defense. This is a team that could win it all if and when it finds a go-to scorer and learns how to play a half-court offense.
Depth
Colorado State and Wyoming are a combined 13-0 and could serve as serious threats to San Diego State atop the conference standings. Boise State and UNLV are less likely to have the sustainability to win the conference during the regular season, but they are two exceptionally difficult teams to beat—especially at home.
What to Watch For
How much will UNLV develop?
The Rebels have a great veteran leader in San Francisco transfer Cody Doolin, but the rest of the team consists of almost entirely freshmen and sophomores. Rashad Vaughn is an excellent scorer. Christian Wood and Goodluck Okonoboh give UNLV a double-edged weapon in the paint similar to last year's combo of Roscoe Smith and Khem Birch.
There's plenty of talent. The Rebels just have to figure out how to harness it.
8. Missouri Valley
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Torch Bearers
From Final Four to 35-0, there might not be a better torch bearer in the country than Wichita State (4-0). We've barely had a chance to see the Shockers yet this season, as they have played just three games against D-I opponents. However, against each of those three top-100 teams, they scored at least 71 points while holding their opponent to 56 or fewer points.
Depth
As great as Wichita State is, the Shockers have some serious company this year in Northern Iowa. Led by Seth Tuttle, the Panthers are 7-0 while playing slow but efficient basketball.
Really, the entire Valley might be better than it was last year. Evansville, Illinois State and Indiana State look solid, and Missouri State is pretty good when Marcus Marshall is on the court. It's been a one- or two-team conference in recent years, but Arch Madness might finally be back.
What to Watch For
What kind of noise can the Valley make before beating itself up?
Wichita State still plays Utah, Alabama and Seton Hall. Northern Iowa has games away from home against Iowa and VCU coming up soon. Indiana State has key games against Butler and Iona. Even Evansville's road game against Belmont could score some serious RPI points. There are plenty of opportunities for the Valley to improve its chances of being a multi-bid conference.
7. West Coast
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Torch Bearers
Gonzaga (7-0) has won at least a share of 15 of the last 17 WCC regular-season titles, and it's all but a foregone conclusion that the Bulldogs are going to win the conference again this year. Kevin Pangos has been Wooden Award good, and Domantas Sabonis is going to end up in Freshman of the Year conversations if the big man keeps playing like he has thus far.
Depth
BYU played very well in the Maui Invitational and didn't deserve those two overtime losses to Purdue and San Diego State. Saint Mary's has opened the season 5-0 with a couple of nice wins over UC Irvine and New Mexico State. Depending on how those two teams do in their multiple upcoming games against quality opponents, the WCC might be a three-bid conference for just the third time in history.
What to Watch For
Can anyone slow down this conference's incredible guards?
We already touched on Pangos, but Tyler Haws (BYU), Johnny Dee (San Diego) and Evan Payne (Loyola Marymount) are averaging better than 20.0 points per game. Santa Clara's Brandon Clark (18.3 PPG) isn't that far behind them, either. Being a scoring guard in the WCC is roughly the equivalent of being a passing quarterback in the Pac-12.
6. Southeastern
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Torch Bearers
Big Blue Nation doesn't even fit anymore. Kentucky (7-0) is Gigantic Blue Nation.
It's tough to see how anyone in the country—let alone anyone in the SEC—is going to best John Calipari's platoons. The Wildcats probably won't have a single player average so much as 15.0 points this season, but they might finish the season with an average margin of victory of 30.0 points anyway.
Depth
The SEC is pretty much on an island between the other power conferences and the likes of the WCC, MVC and MWC. For as much as we've harped on the SEC's struggles to open the season, we'll let you decide who the conference's fifth-best team is, and we'll take that team to win nine out of 10 games against the fifth-best team in the WCC.
However, we're also picking that team to lose nine out of 10 games against the fifth-best team in the ACC, Big Ten or Big 12.
Arkansas has been great, and Florida should eventually turn things around, but at this point, it would be a surprise if the SEC sent more than four teams to the NCAA tournament—although LSU might make things interesting if it keeps playing as well as it did against Massachusetts on Tuesday night.
What to Watch For
Plain and simple: 40-0. Every Kentucky game is appointment television until further notice.
5. Pac-12
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Torch Bearers
We'll see what happens this Saturday when Arizona (6-0) faces Gonzaga, but the Wildcats are currently the torch bearers for the entire portion of the United States west of Texas.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson might as well already be named the nation's Sixth Man of the Year, and Stanley Johnson is one of the few players who will contend with Duke's Jahlil Okafor for the honor of top freshman. And despite those individual studs, Arizona's modus operandi is its defense. Unless Oregon catches fire and really speeds up one of its games against the Wildcats, they might not allow an opponent to score 70 points this season.
Depth
The Pac-12 might be extremely deep, but it's also inexperienced.
Utah should be the second-best team in the conference, but it hasn't been to the NCAA tournament since 2009. UCLA is incredibly young after losing five crucial players this offseason. California is shallow and relying heavily on sophomores, as is Washington. Oregon basically started over from scratch this summer. Yet, all of those teams could dance.
Translation: We're all still trying to get a grasp on this conference's hierarchy and how it relates to the rest of the country.
What to Watch For
How much will Joseph Young score when he starts hitting three-pointers?
Young shot 42 percent from three-point range over the last two seasons, but he's shooting just 28.0 percent thus far while really forcing the issue for a short-handed team. Yet, he's averaging 21.0 points per game and is 36-of-36 from the free-throw line. Once those triples start falling, get used to seeing 30-point games on a semi-regular basis.
4. Atlantic Coast
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Torch Bearers
Take your pick. Duke is ranked the highest, but Louisville, Virginia and North Carolina are all equally capable of winning this conference. The top four teams in the ACC are better than the top four teams of any other conference. Without question.
The ACC is so strong up top that CBS Sports' Chip Patterson (among many others) was left to wonder before the season, "Is the ACC the best college basketball conference in the country?"
Depth
Beyond the top four, though, there are some serious questions. Miami is off to a hot start, but can the Hurricanes keep it going? On the flip side of that coin, is Syracuse going to wake up? Does Notre Dame or North Carolina State have what it takes to knock off any of the ACC's top teams?
The gap between the top third and bottom third of the 15-team ACC is nothing short of a gulf. Clemson's loss at home to Rutgers should tell you all you need to know about how the bottom five teams in this conference would fare against their counterparts.
What to Watch For
Will anyone separate from the pack?
The ACC has four teams that could each earn a No. 1 seed, but what happens if they all go 13-5 in conference with 26-29 overall wins? Kentucky, Arizona, Wisconsin and either Kansas or Texas should be very worthy of a spot on the top line and could end up relegating the ACC to a plethora of No. 2 and No. 3 seeds.
3. Big East
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Torch Bearers
Add Villanova (6-0) to the list of potential No. 1 seeds mentioned on the previous slide. The Wildcats struggled in the opening week of the season with Lehigh and Bucknell, but they have been outstanding since then. Most impressive about Villanova is that there isn't really a singular go-to scorer. It's been a group effort with seven guys averaging between 7.8 and 12.5 points per game.
Depth
Lack of depth was a huge issue for the Big East last season. Villanova and Creighton were great at the top, but Xavier and Providence were fortunate to sneak into the tournament to keep the conference from only earning two bids.
This year, however, it's a completely different story. The Big East has eight legitimate tournament teams, and one of its two teams that is highly unlikely to dance (DePaul) just beat a very good Stanford team by 15 points.
Butler is back after a year off. Creighton is surprisingly back after losing a ton of seniors. Seton Hall looks pretty great through six games, and St. John's isn't far behind the Pirates. There are no nights off in the Big East.
What to Watch For
Can Seton Hall get over the hump?
The Pirates have been the definition of perennially average. Only once in the past decade have they finished more than six games above or below .500. Things are looking different this year, though. Sterling Gibbs is an early favorite for Big East Player of the Year, and Angel Delgado has been a pleasant surprise as a stud freshman.
Once Isaiah Whitehead improves (35.0 field-goal percentage, 4.0 turnovers per game) and starts delivering on preseason expectations, it will only be a matter of time before Seton Hall gets back into the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2001.
2. Big Ten
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Torch Bearers
Wisconsin (7-0) has been even better than expected—and we were expecting the Badgers to dominate the Big Ten en route to another Final Four. Frank Kaminsky has been every bit as good as advertised, but Nigel Hayes and Duje Dukan have been surprisingly outstanding in their own right.
Like Iowa State in recent years, every player who steps on the court for Wisconsin is capable of stretching the court and hitting some threes. Unlike Iowa State at any point in recent memory, Wisconsin bolsters that diverse offensive attack with one of the best defenses in the nation.
Depth
As it has proved in the early stages of the ACC/B1G Challenge, this is a very deep and talented conference. Penn State is arguably the 12th-best team in the conference, and the Nittany Lions are 6-1 with their lone loss coming in double overtime against Charlotte.
With Maryland and Illinois serving as early surprises and no one really underperforming with the possible exception of Nebraska, there's at least an outside shot that the Big Ten sends nine teams to the tournament.
Six Big Ten teams were ranked in the latest AP poll.
What to Watch For
Could the Boilermakers play spoiler(maker)?
Purdue has two 7'0" centers in Isaac Haas (freshman) and A.J. Hammons (junior) who will eventually play in the NBA, joining Kentucky as the only two teams in the country that can make that claim. The Boilermakers might not make the tournament, but once Colorado State transfer Jon Octeus starts playing up to his potential, they're going to cause some serious headaches for a lot of Big Ten teams.
1. Big 12
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Torch Bearers
Texas is ranked ahead of Kansas (5-1), but the Longhorns need to end Kansas' Big 12 title streak before they can even pretend to be the torch bearers.
The Jayhawks were embarrassed by Kentucky two weeks ago, but they have looked great since then, winning the Orlando Classic this past weekend.
Depth
While the Big 12 might not send as many teams to the tournament as the Big Ten, it will send a higher percentage of its teams. With West Virginia and Oklahoma State both still boasting undefeated records, it's tough to envision less than 70 percent of this conference making the NCAA tournament.
What to Watch For
Is TCU good?
The Horned Frogs haven't actually been tested yet, but do you realize how long it's been since they entered the month of December without a loss? The last time it happened was when they won their first nine games during the 1997-98 season before earning a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament—their most recent trip to the Big Dance.
We're talking about a team that went 0-18 in conference last year, losing those games by an average of 17.8 points per night. Even if TCU goes 0-18 again this year, what if the Horned Frogs enter conference play with a 13-0 record and become something more than an RPI land mine for every other team in the Big 12?
Thursday's game at Ole Miss is by far their biggest challenge until January.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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