NFL Predictions: Week 14 Awards Watch

It was a banner week for some of the top awards candidates.

A head-to-head matchup of top MVP candidates was a worthy tilt that may have decided the award for one, while the league's most dominant defensive player emphatically interjected himself into the conversation.

There is still plenty of time with four weeks to go, but the races for NFL awards are really starting to shape up for some players. Let's take a closer look.

Most Valuable Player

Tom Lynn/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL MVP Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	1
2	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	2
3	J.J. Watt	DE	Texans	N/A
4	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	4
5	Peyton Manning	QB	Broncos	3

 

Winner: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2014 NFL MVP—Aaron Rodgers.

The stud Green Bay quarterback all but won the award with a stellar performance in victory against the vaunted New England Patriots. He was masterful in throwing for 368 yards and a pair of touchdowns—and it realistically should have been three, given rookie receiver Davante Adams dropped an easy touchdown.

Tom Brady put up a good fight, but he was harassed into many mistakes and couldn't hang with Rodgers at Lambeau Field.

J.J. Watt had been lurking just outside the top five here for a while, waiting to pounce like he is wont to do against opposing quarterbacks. Another huge performance got him there this week, as he scored his fifth touchdown of the season.

The award is Rodgers' to lose at this point, however. He is having a marvelous season rivaling his record-breaking MVP campaign in 2011, as Fox Sports' Alex Marvez recently pointed out: 

"

This sentiment is not a slight on Houston defensive end J.J. Watt. He may still get my MVP vote on the ballot that I will submit to the Associated Press at season's end. But Rodgers is playing the game's toughest position at the highest level possible. Rodgers has thrown for 32 touchdowns with just three interceptions. His quarterback rating of 118.4 ranks just behind the NFL single-season record of 122.5 that Rodgers himself set in 2011. His statistics would be even gaudier if Packers head coach Mike McCarthy hadn't made the prudent decision to pull Rodgers early in four blowout wins. And the most important thing: Green Bay (9-3) enters the home stretch sitting atop the NFC North with an excellent chance to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

"

His head-to-head win over Tom Brady all but cinched it, barring an injury or collapse over the last four games. 

Don't bank on the latter.

Coach of the Year

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

"Turn Mark Sanchez into a quality starter? Challenge accepted."

In the Running

NFL Coach of the Year Race

Rank	Coach	Team	Last Week
1	Bruce Arians	Cardinals	1
2	Bill Belichick	Patriots	2
3	Jim Caldwell	Lions	4
4	Chip Kelly	Eagles	5
5	Mike Pettine	Browns	3

 

Winner: Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals

Are the wheels starting to come off in Arizona?

Bruce Arians has been outstanding this season, guiding his injury-ravaged club to the top of the NFC West. A pair of consecutive losses—including a tepid showing against the 4-7 Atlanta Falcons—has Cardinals fans nervous. 

A playoff spot was never assured, despite that 9-1 start. Now, with quarterback Drew Stanton floundering and the defense beginning to crack, Arians' once-assured Coach of the Year award is no longer a sure thing. 

But he's sticking with Stanton through it all saying on SiriusXM NFL radio, "There's no thought on changing QB's. Drew will take us were we need to go."

Where the Cardinals want to go is the playoffs, but if they wind up missing the playoffs—a distinct possibility at this point—Arians could surrender the prize, but to whom? 

Right now the best candidate would be Bill Belichick, who is also coming off a loss, albeit to Mike McCarthy and the Green Bay Packers. The Patriots are still poised to win the AFC East and make a deep playoff run after that shaky start, after all.

Speaking of which, McCarthy has begun to make his case for this honor, and he could easily crack the top five here if the Green Bay Packers continue to win. It helps that he has the likely MVP under center, but McCarthy has gotten a lot out of a team that has had a rough time in the trenches in recent seasons.

Then there is Jim Caldwell, who has his Detroit Lions in the hunt for the NFC North in a dramatic turnaround. A strong finish could vault him to the top.

Chip Kelly's transformation of quarterback Mark Sanchez in Philadelphia should qualify him alone, but his Eagles are soaring, too.

In the end, it still seems likely Arians will win the award. He has done too much with too little to ignore, and only a complete collapse to close the season will knock him out of the top spot here.

Offensive Player of the Year

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	2
2	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	4
3	Peyton Manning	QB	Broncos	1
4	DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	3
5	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	5

 

Winner: Andrew Luck, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Two offensive heavyweights have traded blows in recent weeks, but a third contender for this award has forced his way into the conversation.

It was Andrew Luck's turn to shine this week. Despite turnovers on his first two offensive drives of the game, the Colts quarterback threw for 370 yards and five touchdowns against Washington.

Of course, that defense isn't exactly elite, so the performance might be a bit hollow. It still padded his season-long statistics—he is already past 4,000 yards on the year to go with along with 34 touchdowns.

His main competition in recent weeks has been Peyton Manning, but he had a particularly pedestrian week against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Aaron Rodgers, meanwhile, had another fantastic showing against the New England Patriots, one that, again, could have been even better statistically had rookie receiver Davante Adams not dropped an easy touchdown that would have given his quarterback three on the day.

Anything could happen over the next four weeks, though—Peyton Manning still leads the league in touchdown passes with 36, after all, and he's capable of getting to 50.

Defensive Player of the Year

Scott Halleran/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	J.J. Watt	DE	Texans	1
2	Justin Houston	OLB	Chiefs	2
3	Luke Kuechly	MLB	Panthers	4
4	Ndamukong Suh	DT	Lions	3
5	Dont'a Hightower	MLB	Patriots	N/A

 

Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans

Another week, another huge performance for J.J. Watt, who thrust himself back into the NFL MVP conversation as the Houston Texans thrust themselves back into the playoff picture.

In most other years, Justin Houston would be the clear-cut front-runner for this award. He is having a monster season, in a contract year no less. 

Houston notched another sack last week to boost his league-leading total to 14, and he has been vital to Kansas City's defensive success.

Unfortunately for him, Watt is running away with this award. He is on pace to break his own rating record over at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) for the third consecutive season after that monster game against the Tennessee Titans.

With a realistic shot at the MVP, there is no question Watt is the Defensive Player of the Year.

You may have noted a newcomer to the top five this week—Dont'a Hightower.

The New England Patriots middle linebacker has made fans forget about injured starter Jerod Mayo, as Greg Bedard pointed out on the Felger & Massarotti show on CBS Boston:

"

Let me preface this by saying that I believe I value Jerod Mayo more than most do. I think he’s a very good player and I think he will be a very good player. But in my opinion, Dont’a Hightower has done what Jerod Mayo normally does — take on blocks, be tough in the running game and be adequate in coverage — and he’s taken it to another level with his athletic ability.

"

Hightower has been integral to New England's surge on the defensive side, and he deserves consideration here even if he has no shot to win the award.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Rob Foldy/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Mike Evans	WR	Buccaneers	1
2	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	Giants	3
3	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Panthers	2
4	Jordan Matthews	WR	Eagles	4
5	Joel Bitonio	OG	Browns	N/A

 

Winner: Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

No top first-year pro did much to bolster his Offensive Rookie of the Year resume last week, so there hasn't been much change at the top.

Jordan Matthews scored a touchdown in victory against the Cowboys, but he may have been too far behind the pack to really reel them in. He is putting some heat on Odell Beckham Jr. and Kelvin Benjamin, but it will take a spectacular finish to vault him to the top.

Beckham, meanwhile, had the best Sunday performance among the top receivers, and his one-handed catch is still smoldering on the minds of the public, having been burned into memory.

NFL.com's Marc Sessler thinks he might win the award based on the catch, as mentioned in this column last week: 

"

No first-year receiver has been better of late than Beckham, averaging 7.6 catches and 118.6 yards per outing since Week 9. His earth-rattling catch against the Cowboys two Sundays ago might have put him over the top for Offensive Rookie of the Year -- an astounding feat for someone who missed the first month of the season.

"

It's quite probable, but right now Mike Evans still holds a sizable statistical lead for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and he should finish the season as the top rookie at his current pace relative to the others. 

Sessler also pointed out Joel Bitonio's quality play this season for the Cleveland Browns, and he has supplanted fellow rookie guard Zack Martin here.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Tom Gannam/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Aaron Donald	DT	Rams	1
2	C.J. Mosley	ILB	Ravens	2
3	Khalil Mack	OLB	Raiders	3
4	Chris Borland	ILB	49ers	4
5	Anthony Barr	OLB	Vikings	5

 

Winner: C.J. Mosley, ILB, Baltimore Ravens

Being a part of a 52-0 shellacking has to count for something, right?

That is what the St. Louis Rams did to the poor Oakland Raiders, and Aaron Donald was literally at the center of it all. 

The big defensive tackle continues to impress as a rookie, playing dominant football and notching another sack on the season. He was the team's best-rated defensive player yet again last week according to PFF, and he is now the top-rated defensive tackle in the entire league.

His main competition is still C.J. Mosley, who had a relatively quiet day with just six total tackles against the San Diego Chargers. He is still among the top 10 tacklers in the league, however, and that sort of statistic might keep him near the top of the list among voters.

Khalil Mack is still a dominant outside linebacker as a rookie, but playing on a defense that was just thwacked by a mediocre offense like St. Louis isn't a great look.

He is currently the second-best 3-4 outside linebacker in the league behind Defensive Player of the Year candidate Justin Houston, per PFF—and he certainly looks the part on the field—but he doesn't quite have the statistical muscle to force his way to the top.

NFL Rookie of the Year

Cliff McBride/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Mike Evans	WR	Buccaneers	3
2	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Panthers	1
3	Aaron Donald	DT	Rams	2
4	C.J. Mosley	ILB	Ravens	N/A
5	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	Giants	N/A

 

Winner: Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Four of the past six NFL Rookie of the Year honors went to different players than those who won the Offensive or Defensive Rookie of the Year awards.

For a while it seemed like whoever won the offensive award would be the winner here. But there could well be another split.

That's because Mike Evans should pace all rookies in receiving yards and touchdowns this season, but Odell Beckham's amazing catch could propel him to the overall award here. 

Comeback Player of the Year

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	1
2	Rob Gronkowski	TE	Patriots	2
3	Rolando McClain	ILB	Cowboys	3
4	Julio Jones	WR	Falcons	5
5	Geno Atkins	DT	Bengals	4

 

Winner: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

Rob Gronkowski hasn't quite been his cyborg self the past couple of weeks, at least not statistically. 

He has still been an integral part of the New England offense, however, garnering far more attention than your average tight end. 

Jeremy Maclin, meanwhile, had another nice day in victory against the Dallas Cowboys, grabbing eight receptions for 108 yards. Rob Gronkowski missed the end zone yet again, but he wasn't far behind Maclin with 98 yards receiving against the Green Bay Packers.

Gronkowski leads all tight ends in receiving yards and touchdowns while Maclin is in the top 10 in both categories at a crowded receiver position, so it is difficult to tell who is more deserving based on statistics alone.

Both have been major impacts on their respective teams, though Gronkowski's return to full health has driven New England's offensive machine to lead the league in scoring. He has even been mentioned as an MVP candidate in some social media circles.

This award has been split in the past, and there is a real possibility both these guys might win it if they continue playing this well.

That is not to say there aren't other deserving candidates with a shot. McClain continues his improbable renaissance in Dallas, and Julio Jones has recently gotten hot for the Atlanta Falcons in his comeback season from a broken foot.

It'll be one or both of the top two guys here in the end if everything holds steady, however.

Fantasy Player of the Year

Doug Pensinger/Getty Images

In the Running

Fantasy Football Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week	Fantasy Points
1	DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	1	225.0
2	Antonio Brown	WR	Steelers	2	193.1
3	Rob Gronkowski	TE	Patriots	4	145.0
4	Demaryius Thomas	WR	Broncos	N/A	185.5
5	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	N/A	368.9

 

Winner: DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Another 100-yard game from DeMarco Murray. Ho-hum.

Murray pulled up from a bit of a dive in recent weeks to turn in another big performance for the Dallas Cowboys and his fantasy owners last week, and he easily remains atop the leader board at running back.

Last week we featured Emmanuel Sanders, who has been outstanding for the Denver Broncos and a great value at receiver for his fantasy owners. His teammate, Demaryius Thomas, has nearly caught Antonio Brown for the lead at wide receiver, however, and his consistent output—even in games where he hasn't scored—has been a blessing for his fantasy owners.

Andrew Luck has only had one real stinker of a week this season, but he bounced back in a big way with a five-touchdown performance against Washington last week. He remains the top scoring quarterback in fantasy football by a good margin.

Not bad for a guy who wasn't one of the top quarterbacks taken in most drafts.

 

All fantasy statistics courtesy of FFToday.com. Unless otherwise stated, all other statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com.

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