Introducing Your New College Football Dark-Horse Playoff Contenders
One week does not a season make—or does it?
With the 2014 college football season coming to a close next weekend, sans Army-Navy, the playoff picture is as clear as it has been all year. On the flip side, that makes the opportunity for chaos that much more concentrated.
Here's what we know—or, at least, feel confident enough in guessing: The top three teams in Tuesday's playoff poll should be some variation of Alabama, Florida State and Oregon. Jockeying for the fourth and final spot will be Baylor, Ohio State and TCU.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
If all things go according to plan—a dangerous assumption to make—the selection committee has a fairly simple job, all things considered. That's not to say picking No. 4 will be easy, but it is easier than trying to pick three or four spots in a wide-open field.
What if things get wacky, though? What if Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Oregon all lose their respective conference championship games? What if TCU does a face-plant against Iowa State and Baylor falls to Kansas State?
The odds of all of those things happening at once are small, but things can shake up abruptly all the same. That paves the road for teams like Arizona, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin to enter the playoff conversation.
What hasn't been measured is how much winning a conference matters.
"I don't think there is any way to project that," committee chair Jeff Long said earlier this month, via Ralph D. Russo of The Associated Press. "It will certainly be weighed into the equation on Dec. 6 and 7."
Arizona, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin all have a chance to win their respective conferences and get key resume-building wins next weekend. Would those be enough to crash the playoff? Here's the rundown:
| Game | At Stake |
| Arizona vs. Oregon | Pac-12 Championship |
| Florida State vs. Georgia Tech | ACC Championship |
| Ohio State vs. Wisconsin | Big Ten Championship |
| Alabama vs. Missouri | SEC Championship |
| Iowa State vs. TCU | Big 12 Co-Championship |
| Baylor vs. Kansas State | Big 12 Co-Championship |
Arizona
Record: 10-2
AP Rank: No. 8
Key Wins: at Oregon (Oct. 2), Arizona State (Nov. 28)
Losses: USC (Oct. 11), at UCLA (Nov. 1)
Given how highly the committee regards the Pac-12, it wouldn't be surprising to see Arizona make a last-second push toward the playoff with a week remaining. The Wildcats are in prime position: They're ranked in the AP Top 10, and should be a Top 10 team in the playoff poll, with the chance to win a conference championship. Additionally, Arizona has the chance to beat the same playoff-bound team, Oregon, twice.
With critics picking apart every win, it's tough to argue against a team that could potentially beat the Ducks twice away from home. There aren't any terrible losses for Arizona, either. The 28-26 loss to USC came on a missed field goal, and the 17-7 loss to UCLA isn't the worst thing in the world.
Arizona easily has the best chance of the dark-horse contenders to reach the final four.
Georgia Tech
Record: 10-2
AP Rank: No. 12
Key Wins: Clemson (Nov. 15), at Georgia (Nov. 29)
Losses: Duke (Oct. 11), at North Carolina (Oct. 18)
Georgia Tech was one of the quietest two-loss teams heading into Week 14. After a wild 30-24 overtime win against Georgia, though, the Yellow Jackets aren't creeping up on anyone anymore.
Georgia Tech doesn't have that one signature win that Arizona has—yet. Paul Johnson's team will meet Florida State in the ACC Championship Game, and the Seminoles are the sole remaining undefeated team in college football.
The good news for Georgia Tech is that Florida State has been playing like a team that could easily have three or four losses. These are not your 2013 Seminoles, not by a long shot. And Georgia Tech, with its triple-option offense, can be a nightmarish opponent to prepare for in a week.
It feels like the Yellow Jackets would need some help elsewhere, but beating the last undefeated team would open up a slot.
Wisconsin
Record: 10-2
AP Rank: No. 11
Key Wins: Nebraska (Nov. 15), Minnesota (Nov. 29)
Losses: at LSU (Aug. 30), at Northwestern (Oct. 4)
Like Georgia Tech, Wisconsin doesn't yet have a win to give it that extra push. Additionally, the Badgers have a glaring loss at Northwestern, which finished the season 5-7. Not even Ohio State's loss to Virginia Tech is that bad.
What Wisconsin does have going for it is a seven-game win streak and arguably the best player in college football, running back Melvin Gordon. In a 34-24 win over Minnesota on Saturday, Gordon had 151 yards and averaged 5.2 yards a carry with a touchdown.
It was his worst game in nearly a month.
Ohio State's defense is good, though it's a tad more susceptible against the run lately. Earlier this month, Indiana running back Tevin Coleman put up 228 yards on the Buckeyes. A win over Ohio State would at least put Wisconsin in the playoff conversation, but the Badgers probably need a ton of help elsewhere.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
