College Football Playoff Rankings 2014: Predictions for Week 15

With the regular season in the books, the College Football Playoff committee is facing a decision that will set the selection-making precedent for years to come.

Though the Top Three are relatively uncontroversial, the CFP committee must now decide between one-loss teams for the fourth and final playoff berth.  Does an Ohio State squad without J.T. Barrett deserve consideration over TCU, especially if it takes the Big 10 title game next week?  What about Baylor, which beat the Horned Frogs and could very well be the best of the entire trio?

This is the type of no-win controversy straight out of the BCS handbook, one that will elicit plenty of discussion and furor regardless of the verdict.  Taking a look at the odds for Week 14, let's try to forecast how the committee's outlook may change based on Saturday's results.

1. Alabama Crimson Tide

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After Alabama's come-from-behind 55-44 barnburner over Auburn, there's little doubt that Nick Saban's crew has become the nation's best team once again.  The Crimson Tide have finally provided consensus stability at the top after months of turmoil, a familiar position after two losses to end the 2013 campaign left the program shellshocked.

The Iron Bowl illustrated what has been a prevailing theme, namely the transformation of Bama from an old-school smashmouth team into one capable of keeping up with the proliferation of spread offenses throughout the FBS.  With the SEC West title in hand, the Tide also have some auspicious recent history in their favor:

In the SEC title game, Alabama will face Missouri, who won the SEC East for the second consecutive season.  The Tigers have not played Alabama over the past two seasons, so Missouri's balanced offense led by Maty Mauk and Russell Hansbrough could allow them to keep pace against a Bama offense that has been uncharacteristically explosive this year, ranking fourth in the SEC in yards per play.

Missouri can bring the pressure, having accrued an 8.83 percent sack percentage that ranks 11th in the nation, per TeamRankings.com.  It's doubtful that a two-loss Alabama team without an SEC title would reach the playoff, so Saban's crew has no margin for error against an underrated Tigers squad.

2. Oregon Ducks

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After a breezy win over rival Oregon State, the Ducks will now cruise into the Pac-12 title game against the team that handed Oregon its only defeat of the season.  The Arizona Wildcats sprung one of the season's biggest upsets at Eugene, pulling out a 31-24 stunner on a quiet Thursday night.

However, repeating the feat at Levi's Stadium next weekend will be more difficult, especially when considering how the Ducks have gotten healthier since that defeat.  The Ducks have won by an average of 22 points per game since that Wildcats loss, including blowouts over Pac-12 South contenders UCLA and Utah.

Marcus Mariota is also healthier, as the Arizona game came on a short week of rest after he had been sacked seven times against Washington State.  Oregon offensive coordinator Scott Frost admitted that the Heisman candidate was not fully healthy for that game, one in which Mariota posted by far his lowest QBR of the entire season.

Because of Oregon's dominance since the loss, advanced metrics like Football Outsiders' Fremeau Efficiency Index have consistently ranked the Ducks as the best or second-best team in the country most of the season.  Oregon figures to remain second this week, and it would be surprising if they budged from the postseason picture at all.

3. Florida State Seminoles

The Seminoles may be the shakiest team here based on their regular-season resume.  Nevertheless, it is impossible to leave out the undefeated defending champions, and although Florida State has not always fulfilled the potential of its high-end talent, it is clear that they will reach the playoff with an ACC title.

Headed into Saturday's action, Florida State's plus-12.1 average margin of victory ranked just 12th in the nation, per TeamRankings.com, nearly four touchdowns worse than their dominant FBS-leading plus-38.8 margin of victory last season.  Indeed, metrics derived from Vegas betting lines suggest that the Seminoles have not been a top-four squad this season:

In the conference title game, Florida State will play a Georgia Tech team that it has not faced in the Jameis Winston era.  At 10-2, the Yellow Jackets are one of the nation's underrated teams, having bounced back from a pair of midseason losses to notch their most regular-season wins since 2009.  

Nevertheless, even if the Seminoles do not win in dominant fashion, leaving out an undefeated defending champion would be an improbable precedent for the committee to set.  If only by sheer force of pedigree, an uber-talented Florida State squad may force its way into the playoff field and adopt the unfamiliar role of underdog.

4. TCU Horned Frogs 

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This selection is sure to provoke widespread protests and discourse no matter who is selected, but TCU is the cleanest choice.  Picking Ohio State would have made more sense before the Barrett injury, but even if the Buckeyes prevail over Wisconsin next week, it's hard to justify them as one of the four best teams in the nation.

In truth, despite their earlier loss to Baylor, the Horned Frogs look like the Big 12's best team.  The aforementioned FEI rankings placed TCU fifth in the country, five spots ahead of 10th-ranked Baylor.  That gap only figures to grow after the Horned Frogs thrashed Texas and the Bears struggled with Texas Tech.

If the Buckeyes do beat Wisconsin, however, they would have reason to have significant beef with this outcome.  Because we do not have a meaningful sample from which to evaluate, there would be plenty of guesswork as to whether or not a Cardale Jones-led squad is capable of winning the national title.

TCU also has the advantage of not needing to play a conference championship game, as a breezy home win over Iowa State next weekend would put a wrap on an already impressive resume.  Unless someone like Arizona or Missouri springs a conference championship upset, it doesn't look like there is much room for debate.