Big Ten Championship Game 2014: Early Predictions for Title Clash
We know the Ohio State football team will be in Indianapolis on Dec. 6 for the 2014 Big Ten Championship game, but the only question now is, which team from the West Division will join the Buckeyes?
Minnesota travels to Wisconsin Saturday to take on the Badgers in front of a raucous crowd. The winner will clinch a spot in the conference title game, so there is more than just the Paul Bunyan Axe on the line between the two rivals.
As already mentioned, Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes will be in Indianapolis, regardless of what happens Saturday against the hated Michigan Wolverines. There will be plenty at stake for the Scarlet and Gray in that showdown, including a potential spot in the College Football Playoff, redemption for last season’s loss and the team’s first Big Ten Championship game victory since the game was instituted before the 2011 season.
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The Buckeyes struggled in the aftermath of Jim Tressel's departure and Terrelle Pryor's suspension in 2011, they were ineligible in 2012 because of the same scandal—which was unfortunate, considering they were undefeated and could have played their way into the national title game—and lost to Michigan State in the 2013 championship game with a national championship berth on the line.
Ohio State came up short under pressure in that game against the Spartans; Michigan State seized a 17-0 lead, but the Buckeyes came back before losing their lead in the fourth quarter.
It’s not a stretch to suggest that the two times a team would feel the most pressure with a spot in the title game on the line (right when the game starts and in the closing quarter) is when Ohio State struggled. It will have to avoid that type of tight play in the 2014 conference title tilt if it wants to make the playoffs.
Regardless of the winner of the Minnesota and Wisconsin game, the prediction is that the Buckeyes will emerge victorious as a result of that painful experience a year ago.
If it is the Golden Gophers, we have already seen that matchup in Minnesota. The Buckeyes were able to put 31 points and 489 total offensive yards on the board in a snow storm in a 31-24 win. It would not have been that close without three costly Ohio State turnovers that led to Minnesota scores and took what was sure to be a Buckeyes touchdown off the board after a fumble inside the five-yard line.
The Big Ten Championship game will be indoors on a fast turf, and between J.T. Barrett, Ezekiel Elliott, Jalin Marshall, Michael Thomas, Curtis Samuel and Devin Smith, the Golden Gophers would not be able to handle Ohio State’s speed for four quarters on that surface.
They couldn’t even do it in the snow in Minnesota.
Minnesota’s David Cobb did run for 145 yards and three scores in that game and would represent a challenge for the Ohio State defense, but not as much of a challenge as Melvin Gordon would in a game against Wisconsin.
Gordon—a one-man wrecking crew when carrying the ball—is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, with 2,109 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns on the ground. JBook of Bucknuts.com pointed out that the Buckeyes would have trouble with Gordon after Ohio State struggled to stop the run against Minnesota and Indiana:
Gordon put up 408 rushing yards in three quarters against Nebraska earlier this season and has propelled himself into the Heisman discussion. He talked about what that award would mean, via Brian Bennett of ESPN.com:
"You obviously think about it. When you walk in our new academic center, before you get to the elevators, the Heisman Trophy is right there. There's a little iPad next to it, and sometimes I'll read the stats and things on it. Or sometimes I'll just sit there and look at it and just think, 'It's not easy winning that.’
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Wisconsin represents quite a predicament for Ohio State.
On the one hand, it would be good to see Minnesota win against the Badgers so it could avoid a potential matchup with the game’s top running back, especially since it just allowed 228 rushing yards and three touchdowns to Indiana’s Tevin Coleman.
However, a win over Wisconsin, which is No. 14 in the current College Football Playoff rankings but could climb as high as the Top 10 by next week after losses by UCLA and Arizona State Friday, would be much better for the playoff resume.
Gordon would certainly get his yards against the Buckeyes, but the Ohio State offense would counter with more points of its own.
The Buckeyes are fifth in the nation in scoring per game at a ridiculous 44.3 points, and all the points about speed on turf that were mentioned when discussing a matchup with Minnesota still apply here. The Buckeyes would put up enough points in Indianapolis to win the game and the Big Ten championship against either Wisconsin or Minnesota.
Whether it will be enough to impress the selection committee remains to be seen.
Predictions: Wisconsin beats Minnesota to earn a spot in the title game. Ohio State then beats Wisconsin, 31-24, in the Big Ten Championship game.
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