Bowl Predictions 2014: Last-Minute Playoff Projections, Odds Before Week 14
If we are going to get any chaos in the race for the College Football Playoff, it is bound to happen during "Rivalry Saturday."
After all, end-of-season showdowns against hated opponents elicit a different type of emotion and effort level, and the pressure that comes with being a playoff contender could come into play if the games are tight down the stretch.
With that in mind, read on to see some last-minute playoff projections from StatMilk, championship odds from Odds Shark and my own playoff predictions before the games start Saturday.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
(Note: As the table header indicates, the logo shown at the far right of each team's row is for that team's next opponent and not for the ranked team itself.)
StatMilk and Odds Shark Playoff Projections and Odds
| Alabama | 19/10 |
| Oregon | 77/20 |
| Florida State | 15/2 |
| Mississippi State | 10/1 |
| Ohio State | 6/1 |
| Baylor | 8/1 |
| TCU | 8/1 |
*Odds to win national championship courtesy of Odds Shark, as of Friday night at 10 p.m. ET.
Scott Polacek Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)
Game to Watch: Auburn at Alabama
No game on the college football schedule has played a larger role in determining the national champion in the past decade than the Iron Bowl.
In fact, the winner of the Alabama and Auburn showdown has won four of the past five titles, and the one they didn’t win was when Auburn lost to Florida State in the championship game. Of course, the Tigers only got there because Chris Davis ran Alabama’s missed field goal back for a 109-yard touchdown on the game’s final play.
Alabama safety Landon Collins discussed that incredible play, according to the Associated Press, via ESPN.com, "It shows up on the TV every now and again, and it breaks our heart every time. In one second they took our whole chance away of winning anything, and definitely it rewinds in my head. Definitely it will rewind in my head constantly throughout this week."
It’s not like Alabama needs any extra motivation with the College Football Playoff and the heated Iron Bowl hanging in the balance, but reliving that play for 365 days is sure to have the players ready for some revenge.
That is a problem for Auburn considering it lost its past two SEC games to Texas A&M and Georgia, the second in blowout fashion. Interestingly, the Tigers are 6-0 in the last 10 Iron Bowls when they are ranked and 0-4 when they are not, so recent history would suggest ranked Auburn is going to win Saturday.
Playoff contenders hoping Alabama loses better pull for that to happen because next up for the Crimson Tide if they win is the SEC Championship Game against the same Missouri team that lost at home to Indiana. If Alabama is going to drop another game at all, it will likely be Saturday.
The Crimson Tide are the quintessential balanced championship threat because there is nothing they don’t do well. They are 25th nationally in passing yards per game, 35th in rushing yards per game, 28th in scoring offense and second in scoring defense. That shutdown defense is the key against Auburn’s no-huddle attack that gave the Crimson Tide so many issues last season.
Auburn is ninth in the country in rushing yards per game with quarterback Nick Marshall and Cameron Artis-Payne leading the way.
Artis-Payne’s 1,405 rushing yards is the best in the SEC, and it puts him in rare company, via Kyle Burger of Alabama’s 13:
However, Alabama’s powerful defense will make Auburn one-dimensional much the same way that Georgia did in its blowout win over the Tigers. Marshall finished 11-of-23 on the day for 112 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception and looked lost when the team couldn’t get much going on the ground early.
The Crimson Tide will also have the home crowd behind them, which will make life even more difficult for the Auburn offense.
Revenge is in order Saturday, and Alabama will take another step toward the College Football Playoff in decisive fashion.
Prediction: Alabama 31, Auburn 14
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