College Football Rankings 2014: Predicting Playoff Teams Following Week 14
College football has nearly reached zero hour. The four teams fighting to get into the College Football Playoff will decrease with the kickoff of rivalry weekend, where upsets always happen and chaos reigns supreme. It's why this is such a magical weekend.
This also becomes a time when we will find out what the selection committee really uses to evaluate teams. There have been glimpses of it throughout the process so far, notably the way quality wins mean more than anything else.
When it comes to the final standings, though, who knows if the committee's thinking will change? While that's not until December 7, here are some predictions for what will happen over the weekend and how that will impact the standings coming out on Tuesday.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Before diving into what the Top Four will look like next week, here's how things currently stand in the playoff race.
(Note: As the table header indicates, the logo shown at the far right of each team's row is for that team's next opponent and not for the ranked team itself.)
Predicted Playoff Standings For Week of December 1
| Rank | Team | Current Record | Remaining Schedule |
| 1 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 10-1 (6-1 in SEC) | vs. Auburn, SEC Championship Game (Pending outcome of Auburn game) |
| 2 | Oregon Ducks | 10-1 (7-1 in Pac-12) | at Oregon State, Pac-12 Championship Game (Opponent TBD) |
| 3 | Florida State Seminoles | 11-0 (8-0 in ACC) | vs. Florida, vs. Georgia Tech (ACC Championship Game) |
| 4 | TCU Horned Frogs | 10-1 (7-1 in Big 12) | vs. Iowa State |
The Top Three is boring since that stays the same. Alabama has the Iron Bowl matchup with Auburn on Saturday. Normally, this would be a showdown to watch closely. It's lost some luster thanks to the Tigers losing their last two SEC games against Texas A&M and Georgia.
Alabama has gotten better as the season has gone on, peaking at the right time. The Crimson Tide aren't blowing opponents out, but since losing to Mississippi on October 4, they have won six straight games and are allowing 13.3 points per game during that stretch.
That's where the difference lies between these two teams, as the offenses have been nearly identical in terms of points scored. Auburn averages 35.1 points per game; Alabama averages 35.
On defense, though, it's no contest because Nick Saban's team wipes the floor with Auburn, as this graphic from StatMilk shows:
Assuming Alabama holds serve in this spot, which it should given the recent directions of these two teams, it will retain the top spot in the rankings.
Immediately following the Crimson Tide will be Oregon, which has its own rivalry game on Saturday against Oregon State. Unlike Alabama, which at least faces a quality opponent, the Ducks should have no problems.
Even though Oregon is traveling to Reser Stadium, the Ducks are a vastly superior team. They are third in scoring offense, 14th in passing offense and 23rd in rushing offense. Oregon State is 24th in passing offense, but just 84th in scoring and 114th in rushing.
Plus, Oregon will know to be on its toes after watching Arizona State's season get ruined by the Beavers two weeks ago. Marcus Mariota has yet to lose against Oregon State in his career. That won't change on Saturday.
Florida State may not look pretty doing what it does, but the end result is all that matters. The Seminoles might be better prepared for a must-win game this year than they were in 2013 because of how all their close games and wins so far.
Don't underestimate Florida in this spot. While the Gators have had problems this season, they do have a formula that's given Florida State problems. The gap in scoring isn't as significant as you might think, while Florida's rushing offense plays into a weakness for Jimbo Fisher's defense, via StatMilk:
Florida State has earned enough clout over the last two years, so predicting a loss in this spot would be foolish. Just know that it wouldn't be a surprise to see another game where the Seminoles struggle.
The fourth and final spot has never been cloudier. Mississippi State is likely hanging on by a thread, while TCU and Ohio State have found their groove late in the year. The Bulldogs will get a huge boost if they win and Alabama loses because it guarantees them one more game for the SEC championship.
Even though an Alabama loss would hurt Mississippi State's opponents' record, having more opportunities to impress the committee seems important.
However, the Bulldogs haven't looked sharp lately and are going to take on a Mississippi defense that leads the nation with 13.5 points allowed per game. Dak Prescott, while he is being named a finalist for many postseason awards, hasn't been the same quarterback lately.
Edward Aschoff of ESPN.com highlighted Prescott's erratic performance of late as the key for Mississippi to expose to pull off an upset:
"Force Prescott to make mistakes. The Achilles heel of the one-time Heisman Trophy frontrunner has been taking care of the football. For as good as Prescott has been at carving up defenses, he's turned the ball over too many times in recent weeks, including throwing three interceptions in the loss to Alabama.
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In fact, taking things deeper, Prescott has thrown eight of his 10 interceptions this season in the last four games against SEC teams.
This opens the door for TCU, which has already taken care of its business with a dominant effort against Texas on Thanksgiving. The Horned Frogs need help to win the Big 12. Baylor still has two games left, including a critical showdown next week against Kansas State.
While there is time to debate that game and TCU's standing, there's no doubt that if Mississippi State were to lose, then Gary Patterson's team stands to move into the final spot. The committee clearly loves TCU's body of work with wins over Oklahoma, West Virginia and Kansas State.
Ohio State, while it has slowly moved up the totem pole, still has to overcome the stigma of that early-season loss to Virginia Tech. The Buckeyes are also playing a Michigan team that's been a disaster virtually all year.
Next week will do Urban Meyer's team some good, especially if it gets to play Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game. Until that time, though, don't expect the Buckeyes to jump TCU in next week's rankings.
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
