Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos will try to sweep the Kansas City Chiefs and move closer to winning the AFC West title when they meet on Sunday Night Football.

The Broncos won the first meeting 24-17 back in Week 2 but did not cover the spread as 13-point home favorites, and they are small road chalk this time around as they look to beat the Chiefs for the sixth straight time.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 49.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.1-30.4 Chiefs

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver has won its last 10 road games against AFC West opponents, going 9-1 against the spread. The Broncos know they cannot mess around anymore if they want to repeat as division champs and try to make a run at home-field advantage in the AFC.

With the New England Patriots visiting the Green Bay Packers earlier in the day, they have an opportunity to possibly pick up a game in the standings if the Patriots lose and they win.

Denver will also be facing a Kansas City team that is coming off a surprising loss to the Oakland Raiders and could be questioning itself a little bit after winning five in a row.

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs should be motivated to bounce back from their road loss to the Raiders as seven-point favorites and beat the Broncos now as home underdogs.

All it took was one loss to knock them down following a five-game winning streak, and they will be looking to get back up and dedicate this game to safety Eric Berry, who was placed on the non-football illness list after a mass was found in his chest.

Berry was one of the key cogs in the team’s defense, and he will be sorely missed. Kansas City will rally around Berry’s absence and try even harder to win this game for him.

Smart pick

The Chiefs may look like an intriguing play in this spot as home dogs, but Denver knows how important this game is to the team’s hopes of making it back to the Super Bowl.

A loss here would put the Broncos into a tie with Kansas City atop the AFC West and keep them from potentially gaining ground on New England. The Chiefs are just 6-15 ATS in their last 21 home games against divisional opponents, including 2-6 in their past eight.

Meanwhile, Denver is 6-3 versus the line in the previous nine meetings with Kansas City and won 35-28 at Arrowhead Stadium around this time last year. Look for the Broncos to find a way to complete the sweep of the Chiefs again here.

The smartest pick might be over the total. In 12 Sunday night games this year so far, the over has prevailed 11 times.

Betting trends

• Denver has won 10 straight divisional road games (9-1 ATS).
• Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last five games at home.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark . Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.