Ranking the NBA's Hot-Starting Teams
Four NBA teams finished the 2013-14 campaign with a winning percentage above .675. None of them are among the five clubs that have opened the 2014-15 season by winning their games at or above an 80 percent clip.
With roughly a month's worth of data in hand, it's hard to tell exactly what the basketball world is witnessing. These could be fiery starts or the early signs of a league-wide changing of the guard.
Chances are that there are elements of both in play.
Not all of these teams are going to end this year where they started it. Some will slowly fizzle away, plagued by unsustainable production or schedules that increase in difficulty. It hardly seems coincidental that none of the league's five hottest teams have faced even a top-third schedule in terms of difficulty, per ESPN.com.
But some of these early-season juggernauts appear built to last. With deep rosters and two-way balance, they have the ingredients for something far more substantial than a quick spurt out of the gate.
Judging these teams based on what they have accomplished to date and how they project to perform down the road, let's take a worst-to-first run through the league's strongest starts.
5. Houston Rockets
1 of 5
Record: 12-3
Strength of Schedule (Rank): .455 (27th)
The Houston Rockets have done some incredible things to start this campaign.
Despite having three different starters—Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverley and Terrence Jones—miss time due to injury, Houston has stayed within the elite ranks by barricading the defensive end of the floor. The Rockets have allowed a league-best 94.5 points per 100 possessions, a number that grows even more impressive when considering James Harden is getting 37.2 minutes a night.
Swingman Trevor Ariza has given the Rockets a relentless defensive presence on the perimeter, and Howard has been phenomenal (team-best 93 defensive rating, 11.3 rebounds and 2.3 blocks) when his bothersome right knee has allowed him to play.
But the biggest factor in the Rockets' early-season success could be their pillow-soft schedule. Houston has already defeated the Philadelphia 76ers (twice), Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics, Minnesota Timberwolves, depleted Oklahoma City Thunder, New York Knicks and a San Antonio Spurs team playing without Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, among others.
The Rockets shouldn't be penalized for playing some easy competition, but this early stretch hasn't instilled much confidence, either. Houston's offense has been a wreck (22nd in efficiency), Howard and Harden haven't proved they are better than before and this roster has major depth concerns.
"Last season's opening-round loss to Portland created real questions about how far James Harden and Dwight Howard can carry this team against top-shelf opponents," wrote Bleacher Report's Stephen Babb. "The supporting cast also took a step back with the departures of Chandler Parsons, Omer Asik and Jeremy Lin."
These issues haven't kept Houston out of the win column often, but that could change once the competition stiffens.
4. Portland Trail Blazers
2 of 5
Record: 12-3
Strength of Schedule (Rank): .494 (17th)
The Portland Trail Blazers have one of the league's top starting fives and an offense capable of overheating a scoreboard. But their bench has been shallow, and their defense has been too generous.
They can still work with that combination. Last season, they reeled off 54 wins and captured their first playoff series victory since 2000.
But the margin for error with that setup is paper-thin, especially if Portland wants to build off that success. One rough shooting night can change the outcome of a game, and one serious injury could spoil an entire season.
The Blazers have looked to give themselves more leeway this time around. Portland still boasts a world-class offense (third in efficiency), but it has shifted its defensive coverage to become similarly effective on that side of the ball.
"In general, they don’t gamble and they don’t pressure as strenuously on the perimeter as most other teams," wrote Vantage Sports' Ian Levy. "The defensive responsibility of guards and wings is not to take risks but to corral ball-handlers and direct them toward the sagging big men in the paint."
The Blazers rank sixth in defensive efficiency, a dramatic improvement after finishing last season at 16th. They have coaxed opponents into attempting the second-most mid-range shots per game (26.2).
The Blazers bench looks better, too, thanks to the arrivals of Chris Kaman (10.9 points, 6.9 rebounds) and Steve Blake (4.3 assists against 1.3 turnovers). But they need more consistency out of Allen Crabbe and Will Barton. They need the injury bug to spare C.J. McCollum (broken finger), so he can start performing like a former lottery pick.
Without more depth, that threat of regression will be hard to shake.
3. Memphis Grizzlies
3 of 5
Record: 13-2
Strength of Schedule (Rank): .491 (19th)
If the Memphis Grizzlies keep this up, they will have a tough time wearing their "grit-and-grind" label for much longer. It's not too often a gritty team grinds itself to a top-10 offense, but Memphis' 105.9 points per 100 possessions are good enough for a top-third standing.
There are a number of elements contributing to the Grizzlies getting offensive.
The career years put forth by Marc Gasol (19.8 points, 3.1 assists) and Courtney Lee (13.5 points on .528/.561/.893) surely haven't hurt. And neither has the recent emergence of a reserve group that could be among the NBA's best once sharpshooters Quincy Pondexter (26.8 three-point percentage) and Vince Carter (29.8) start hitting their marks.
"They just need to bring that firepower off the bench," Tony Allen said of the second-teamers, per Clay Bailey of The Associated Press. "They're very capable of sustaining the lead or building on the lead, or if we are down, then bring some energy."
The Grizzlies could have an upper-level offense throughout the year. Both Mike Conley (16.4 points per game) and Zach Randolph (16.1) are scoring less than they did last season (17.2 and 17.4, respectively). Even with Gasol's ascent as a go-to scorer, there should be enough left behind the big guy for Conley and Randolph to sniff out a little more production.
And Memphis' defense is always going to rank among the elite units. The Grizzlies currently sit fourth in defensive efficiency, and it's hard to see them slipping too far out of that spot.
The Grizzlies just need to prove they have enough shooting to make this a very-good-to-great attack. Only two teams average fewer three-point attempts than Memphis (15.3). This team may have to get more active from deep to keep defenses from crowding Gasol and Randolph on the interior.
2. Toronto Raptors
4 of 5
Record: 13-2
Strength of Schedule (Rank): .500 (15th)
For fans who want to quickly and easily digest the Toronto Raptors' rise to Eastern Conference contenders, they can find their answers in the play of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry.
While not the most efficient shooter (40.6 field-goal percentage), DeRozan has been able to supply consistent scoring volume (20.7 points per game). And the hard-nosed Lowry has done a masterful job balancing his scoring (18.1 points) and distributing (6.6 assists) duties.
It's easy to sell DeRozan and Lowry as the reasons for Toronto's success, especially for those who prefer their analysis in CliffsNotes style. But the Raptors have a wealth of intriguing individual parts, all of which add up to one devastating whole.
"Each night is going to be a different story," Dwane Casey said, per Scott Stinson of the National Post. "Each night is going to be a different hero."
Developing prospects Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross can change the course of a game on their own. Louis Williams has started an early campaign for Sixth Man of the Year honors with 14.2 points on .448/.424/.841 shooting in 20.3 minutes a night. Greivis Vasquez can find his own shot or create some for others. Swingman James Johnson uses his elite athleticism to wreak two-way havoc.
It's a complete team effort, and it's given the Raptors a plus-11.0 net rating. Not only is that the East's top mark (and third highest overall), it's the conference's only entry inside the top 10.
If any club can keep the Chicago Bulls and Cleveland Cavaliers from eventually clashing in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Raptors look like the team to do it. They deserve to be considered the favorites at this point, and they aren't going to give up that honor easily.
If this list didn't also feature the favorites out West, Toronto could have claimed the highest ranking here.
1. Golden State Warriors
5 of 5
Record: 12-2
Strength of Schedule (Rank): .513 (11th)
Of the five teams on this list, none have faced a tougher schedule than the Golden State Warriors. Despite the tougher competition, the Warriors own an NBA-best plus-12.0 net rating.
Golden State has balance on both ends of the floor, which is the ultimate mark for a true championship contender. The Warriors have climbed to the No. 2 spot in defensive efficiency and, under first-year coach Steve Kerr, fielded an equally menacing offensive attack (sixth in efficiency).
Golden State's offensive captain, Stephen Curry, a legitimate MVP candidate, has gotten more defensive under the leadership of new assistant coach Ron Adams. And defensive anchor Andrew Bogut has been freed to produce on the offensive side by Kerr and lead assistant Alvin Gentry.
"The beauty of this team is we can play both ends," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said, per the Associated Press. "We have the personnel to score. We have the personnel to guard."
The Warriors have the bodies to dominate both sides of the ball. More often than not, that's precisely what they have done. Of their 12 victories, nine have been of the double-digit variety.
Scary as this sounds, Golden State isn't close to its ceiling.
Two-time All-Star David Lee (hamstring) has played seven minutes on the season. Career starter, and former All-Star, Andre Iguodala has 14 games under his belt as a sixth man. Prized offseason pickup Shaun Livingston is still finding his place in this system.
The Warriors are still getting familiar with each other and this coaching staff. There is another level for this team to reach, despite how high it's already sitting.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
