Clippers-Rockets Clash a Proving Ground for Both Teams
Not every early-season game carries a high level of significance, but a post-Thanksgiving battle between the 12-3 Houston Rockets and 9-5 Los Angeles Clippers at 8 p.m. ET is one crucial exception. Both Western Conference powers have strayed from the preseason expectations, and now it's time for a bit of proving.
The Rockets, even though they've stormed out to that 12-3 record and continued winning while Dwight Howard rested his strained right knee, have more than their fair share of doubters. They could certainly use a marquee win against a team with multiple superstars.
Meanwhile, the Clippers need to continue winning games to show that their rough start to the year was nothing more than a high-quality squad stumbling out of the blocks before regaining its footing. It's not as though the early-season flaws have to hold them back forever.
Each team has a chance to prove itself further, even if it's LAC looking to change the narrative while Houston attempts to validate itself. And thus, the stage is set for a memorable November clash.
Houston Hoping to Diminish Doubters
Despite winning 12 games in 15 attempts, the Rockets still haven't proven that they're true championship contenders, especially since they play in that brutally difficult Western Conference.
Basketball-Reference.com actually shows they've been the No. 10 team in the league, according to their SRS (simple rating system, which takes margin of victory and strength of schedule into account) of only 3.86. That puts them behind squads like the Cleveland Cavaliers, New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings.
Why?
Because Houston has played one of the league's easiest schedules at the start of the year, racking up wins against overmatched competition and doing so without posting an exorbitantly high margin of victory. So far, they've gone just 4-2 against teams that made the playoffs in 2014. Included in the victory column are outings against the LeBron James-less Miami Heat and the decimated Oklahoma City Thunder, against whom they scored only 69 points in a winning effort.
That's why it's so important for them to take advantage of every opportunity on the schedule that features one of the league's more potent opponents.
Up to this point in the season, the Rockets have allowed only 98 points per 100 possessions, the No. 2 mark in the league, and they've done so largely when Howard and Trevor Ariza have been on the floor. As Bleacher Report's Kelly Scaletta wrote earlier this season, the defensive rating skyrockets when that combination is broken up:
"Based on data from NBAWowy.com, the Rockets are giving up .946 points per play when both are on the court. They’re giving up .919 when Howard is on the court without Ariza and .965 when Ariza is on the court without Howard.
When neither is on the court, the Rockets yield a whopping 1.176 points per possession.
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Howard's return date from his knee strain is still uncertain, so what better time for the team to validate its early efforts than with him out of the picture and the remaining contributors going up against one of the league's more effective offenses? LAC, early struggles and all, has the league's No. 5 offensive rating, and the brutal combination of Chris Paul and Blake Griffin is tough for any team to slow down.
And it's tougher still for Houston, who likely won't have either Howard patrolling the paint or Patrick Beverley wreaking havoc on the perimeter.
Without those two defensive aces, the identity of this Houston team is unclear, but it has a great chance to prove itself Friday night. Whether it's showing it can prevent points without the stoppers or improving on the other end, it has to do something in order to get this important victory. The Rockets have survived without Howard and Beverley in the past, but the Clippers are a new test.
Still, what better chance to get the offense rolling than against a defense that hasn't looked all that special during the early part of the year?
Los Angeles Looking to Leap
While the Clippers do have a 9-5 record that currently leaves them in position for a playoff spot, they're still not living up to the sky-high expectations they drew at the beginning of the season. This team, which actually ranks one spot ahead of Houston in the SRS rankings, was supposed to be competing for the top spot in the Western Conference, and it was a popular pick—yours truly is guilty as charged—to go all the way to the NBA Finals.
Instead, the Clippers have been plagued by diminished production from Griffin, a complete dearth of positive play at small forward and a set of defenders that really haven't been able to get the job done. Now, with James Harden and his free-throw-earning ways coming to town, Doc Rivers' squad is in danger of falling out of the top 20 on the defensive rating leaderboard, as they enter the matchup at No. 18 and allowing 107.1 points per 100 possessions.
If there's one thing to look for in this clash, it's fouling.
Houston is quite good at getting to the charity stripe, ranking in the top five for total free-throw attempts and trailing only the Kings and Toronto Raptors in free-throw rate. Harden is particularly deadly at the line, allowing the bearded 2-guard to function as an extremely efficient scorer despite a putrid field-goal percentage that's become one of the NBA's most misleading stats.
Meanwhile, the Clippers rank near the very bottom in one of the four defensive factors. They're beating only the Phoenix Suns, Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets in free throws allowed per field goal attempted, and that discipline will have to improve in a win-and-gain-momentum outing against the Rockets.
"We're not going to have it every night, and this was one of those games where we just had to find a way to win," Paul explained to reporters, via the Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com), after he led the Clippers to a victory over the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday night. "That's not usually us, but we got the win and now we can get out of here."
But already, we've reached a point where the Clippers need that intensity every time they step onto the floor. The rotations have been awful on defense at times, the effort on the offensive glass atrocious and the overall offensive play lethargic and uninspired. And yet, the Clippers still come into the Houston game with an above-.500 record and a great chance to keep moving up the standings in the Western Conference.
In Houston, the Clippers will meet a team that needs to play with similar levels of intensity during this early stage of the 2014-15 season. But while LAC be playing to continue the upward trajectory of recent days, they'll be facing off against a Rockets team hoping to validate itself as one of the league's true contenders, finally given another opportunity to take down a legitimate playoff squad.
With two teams boasting fluctuating identities gearing up for a clash, there's no telling what will happen. Nonetheless, it's sure to be an impassioned and entertaining game.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from Basketball-Reference.com.
