Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Buffalo Bills return home to Ralph Wilson Stadium to host the Cleveland Browns on Sunday following the snowstorm that moved their game to Detroit’s Ford Field last week.

The Bills routed the New York Jets 38-3 in that neutral-site game as 2.5-point favorites, while the Browns are coming off a 26-24 road victory against the Atlanta Falcons as 2.5-point underdogs.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick 'em but was bet quickly to a three-point edge for the host Bills; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.0-22.8 Bills

Why the Browns can cover the spread

Cleveland has won four of its last five games—going 3-2 against the spread—to remain in the race for the AFC North title. The Browns bounced back from a disappointing 23-7 home loss to the Houston Texans the previous week as four-point favorites by edging the Falcons on a 37-yard field goal by kicker Billy Cundiff as time expired.

They will be playing consecutive road games for the first time this season and have gone 3-2 straight up and 3-1-1 ATS in their previous five, with three of those decided by three points or fewer. Cleveland is 3-0 versus the line in its last three games as a road underdog.

Why the Bills can cover the spread

Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against AFC North opponents and will be happy to be playing in Orchard Park, New York, again.

Ford Field treated the Bills quite well, though. They won for the second time there this season, having also beaten the Lions 17-14 in Week 5 as 4.5-point road underdogs. Defensively, they grounded the Jets last Monday, forcing New York quarterback Michael Vick out of the game after he had completed just seven of 19 passes for 76 yards with one interception.

Buffalo sacked Vick and Geno Smith seven times overall to increase the team’s NFL-leading total to 46.

Smart pick

The Browns are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games against AFC East foes, while the Bills have failed to cover each of their past four home games. While Buffalo is coming off a big win last week against a divisional opponent, the team is ripe for a letdown despite being back in their own stadium.

The Bills visit the Denver Broncos next week, so this is a sandwich game between two more meaningful ones. The Browns seems to be a more focused team on the road this season outside of a 24-6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 7 as four-point road favorites. They made up for that stinker by beating the Cincinnati Bengals in their next game away from home three weeks later as six-point underdogs.

Look for the Browns team that routed the Bengals and topped Atlanta last week to show up here and upset Buffalo again as road dogs.

Betting trends

• Browns 3-0 ATS last three games as road underdogs
• Browns 5-2 ATS last seven road games versus AFC East
• Browns 4-2 SU and ATS last six meetings with Bills
• Bills 4-0 ATS last four home games versus AFC North

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.