Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The NFC East lead will be on the line Thanksgiving Day when the Dallas Cowboys host the Philadelphia Eagles in a key divisional matchup.

The Cowboys have won and covered three of the last four meetings with the Eagles, and they are also 4-1 vs. the line in their past five home games against NFC East foes.

But Philly rides a 7-3 spread streak in divisional road games and the Cowboys are just 1-6 ATS in seven recent games as home chalk.

Point spread: Cowboys opened as three-point favorites; the total was 54.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.6-31.3 Cowboys

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

Philadelphia is the defending division champion and split two meetings with Dallas last year, with the road team winning each game. When the Eagles lost 17-3 to the Cowboys last season, their quarterback situation was a mess, with Michael Vick out with an injury, Nick Foles struggling before getting injured in the fourth quarter and then Matt Barkley finishing up an overall poor performance by throwing three picks.

This year, Philly is counting on Mark Sanchez to get the job done. Sanchez has led the team to a 3-1 mark SU and ATS since Foles went down again with a broken collarbone suffered during a 31-21 road victory against the Houston Texans as two-point favorites.

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

Dallas just seems like a different team this year, continuing to win games when naysayers still expect the team to fall apart. The Cowboys have used a balanced offense to their advantage and not put any extra pressure on QB Tony Romo unlike previous seasons.

Dallas running back DeMarco Murray remains the stabilizing force offensively, totaling an NFL best 1,354 rushing yards and hitting the century mark in 10 of 11 games so far. Even though the Cowboys have struggled to cover the spread in six of their last seven games as home favorites, their motivation for divisional games has been much different in going 4-1 in their past five at AT&T Stadium under that scenario.

Smart Pick

This is obviously a huge game for both teams and will be the first of two meetings between them over the next three weeks. The Eagles have gone 9-3 SU in their last 12 road games against NFC East foes and 7-3 ATS in their past 10, so they are more than capable of pulling off the upset in this spot.

Another key factor is the re-emergence of Philadelphia running back LeSean McCoy, who is coming off one of his best games of the season with 130 yards on 21 carries and a touchdown. McCoy will be extra motivated to be the top back on the field Thursday and lead Philly to an upset victory.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games
• Dallas is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
• Road team is 7-1 SU past eight meetings between these teams

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.