Must-Win Game for Detroit Lions Hinges on Turnovers
The Detroit Lions' Thanksgiving meeting with the Chicago Bears—a must-win game for so many reasons—will almost certainly come down to which team ends up on the right side of the turnover ledger.
Arguably no team in football is as dependent on winning the turnover battle as the Bears, and the recent series history between the two clubs suggests the take-give ratio will almost certainly have a major say in which way the game goes Thursday.
Bottom line: If the Lions can force a mistake or two on defense and protect the football on offense, the chances of Chicago pulling off the upset drop to somewhere near zero. It's simplistic in nature but also irrefutable in evidence.
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And given the current playoff atmosphere in both the division and conference, the Lions must know that a loss Thursday would serve as a significant blow to the team's odds of winning the NFC North or securing a berth as one of the two NFC Wild Card entries.
Beat the Bears, and everything is still in reach. Drop to 7-5, and the ground starts becoming mighty shaky.
Winning the turnover battle would be a step in the right direction. Luckily, no club in the NFL can be as easily defined by the turnover statistic as Marc Trestman's Bears.
Chicago has won five games and lost six others in 2014. The wins and losses can be split fairly neatly down the turnover line: The Bears have lost six games and won just one (vs. Minnesota) in which they've had more giveaways than takeaways, and they've won all four in which they've produced more takeaways than giveaways.
Over the six losses, Chicago has a minus-12 turnover differential. That number jumps to plus-nine in the five wins.
Here is Chicago's very revealing turnover game log in 2014:
| vs. BUF | 3 | 1 | Loss |
| at SF | 0 | 4 | Win |
| at NYJ | 1 | 3 | Win |
| vs. GB | 2 | 0 | Loss |
| at CAR | 4 | 3 | Loss |
| at ATL | 0 | 1 | Win |
| vs. MIA | 3 | 0 | Loss |
| at NE | 2 | 0 | Loss |
| at GB | 3 | 1 | Loss |
| vs. MIN | 2 | 1 | Win |
| vs. TB | 1 | 4 | Win |
The Bears make no secret about the importance of turnovers. Trestman sits at the Halas Hall podium nearly every week and talks about taking away the football and protecting it on offense. Such is life when your defense isn't talented enough to consistently make stops and your quarterback on offense is Jay Cutler.
The Bears defense is ranked 30th in points and 21st in yards allowed this season, and opposing quarterbacks have already thrown 25 touchdowns passes against Chicago's thin secondary. The defense's saving grace has been turnovers, of which Chicago has 18 (12th most).
When the Bears defense delivers more than one turnover in a game, Chicago has allowed just 20.8 points per contest (more than a touchdown less than the team's season average). With one or fewer takeaways, opposing teams are averaging 31.4 points per game—including two efforts over 50 points.
Last week, the Bears needed three second-half turnovers to turn around an otherwise poor performance against a two-win Tampa Bay Buccaneers team.
Meanwhile, Cutler directs a Bears offense that has 21 giveaways—the seventh most in the NFL.
The quarterback is right at the center of the problem. Through 11 games, Cutler has 18 turnovers, which leads all NFL quarterbacks. Only rookie Blake Bortles of the Jacksonville Jaguars has more interceptions (15) than Cutler's 12, and Cutler stands alone with the most total fumbles (11) and lost fumbles (six).
Not surprisingly, his inability to protect the football has hurt the Bears in the win-loss column.
Chicago is 1-5 when Cutler throws an interception in 2014 and 4-0 when he doesn't. Since Cutler arrived in Chicago in 2009, the Bears are 5-19 when Cutler throws two or more interceptions and 22-5 when he has zero.
Turnovers have understandably played a role in the recent series between the Lions and Bears.
Last season, the Lions intercepted Cutler three times in the first meeting, leading to 10 points. Detroit also had a strip-sack of Cutler that was returned for a touchdown. That's 17 points in a game that ended in favor of the Lions, 40-32.
In the second meeting, Cutler threw an interception right before the half while inside Detroit's 5-yard line. The points taken off the board wound up being crucial. The 7-7 game at the time eventually ended in a 21-19 Lions win.
Back in 2012, the Lions lost the turnover battle 4-0 in each meeting with Chicago and predictably finished 0-2 against the Bears.
Even in 2011, or Detroit's last playoff season, the Bears got the best of the Lions in Chicago when Detroit had six turnovers.
This season, the Lions are 5-1 when winning the turnover margin, with a lone loss in Arizona. Two of Detroit's other three losses came with the turnover ledger flipped the other way. Overall, Detroit is ranked ninth in giveaways and 15th in takeaways.
The Lions simply can't afford a fifth loss at this point in the season.
| 1. Arizona Cardinals | 9-2 | at ATL |
| 2. Green Bay Packers | 8-3 | vs. NE |
| 3. Philadelphia Eagles | 8-3 | at DAL |
| 4. Atlanta Falcons | 4-7 | vs. ARI |
| 5. Dallas Cowboys | 8-3 | vs. PHI |
| 6. Seattle Seahawks | 7-4 | at SF |
| 7. Detroit Lions | 7-4 | vs. DET |
| 8. San Francisco 49ers | 7-4 | vs. SEA |
| 9. Chicago Bears | 5-6 | at DET |
The Green Bay Packers finally overtook the Lions for first place in the NFC North, and with a game left to play between the two at Lambeau Field set for Week 17, Detroit has very little margin for error in terms of jumping back over Green Bay. Losing a division game would be a significant setback.
Falling to the Bears Thursday would also drop Detroit's odds of making the postseason as a wild card.
If the playoffs started today, the Lions would be out as the No. 7 seed in the NFC. The 8-3 Dallas Cowboys and 7-4 Seattle Seahawks currently hold the No. 5 and 6 seeds, respectively. Meanwhile, the 7-4 San Francisco 49ers are also a threat to make a move.
Complicating matters is the fact that the Cowboys look like a potential 10-win team. And maybe more importantly, the Seahawks hold a crucial tiebreaker over Detroit based on record against common opponents. That reality won't change. Again, the margin for error for the Lions is razor thin.
The Lions are in must-win mode. It's beat the Bears or bust on Thanksgiving.
If recent history is any indication, the easiest way for the Lions to ensure a happy holiday is by winning the all-important turnover margin against a Bears team that lives and dies by the statistic.
Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report.
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