The Gambler's Guide: College Football Week 4

Welcome to the Gambler's Guide.  Each week, I'll break down eight of the top college football match-ups of the week, including my pick to win.  And since I like you so much, you'll also get my "Lock of the Week".  Aren't I sweet?  Here we go:

# 20 Texas A&M @ Miami (FL)

Favorite: Miami (-2.5)

Pick: Texas A&M

Breakdown: I haven't seen anything from the 'Canes so far this season to warrant picking them against a Top 20 team.  They are a better team with Kyle Wright under center, but he will not make enough of a difference to beat a talented Aggie team.  Look for Mike Goodson and Jovorskie Lane to have a big day rushing, as well as dual-threat QB Stephen McGee.

#4 Oklahoma @ Tulsa

Favorite: Oklahoma (-22)

Pick: Oklahoma

Breakdown: This is a tough one.  Not because Tulsa has any chance of pulling the upset, but because giving any team over 20 points is a tough pill to swallow.  That said, the Golden Hurricane will need all the help they can find, including Mother Nature, to slow down Allen Patrick, Demarco Murray, and the Sooner rushing attack.  Is OU QB Sam Bradford Heisman material?  Not this year.  Is he good enough to dismantle Tulsa?  Yes.  Especially with Malcom Kelly and Juaquin Iglesias on the other end of his passes.

#12 South Carolina @ #2 LSU

Favorite: LSU (-16.5)

Pick: LSU

Breakdown: The Ole' Ball Coach is surprising us all with his Gamecock defense, which has allowed only 29 points through three games.  Not bad... until you look at LSU.  Les Miles' defense has given up exactly one touchdown this season.  Whether it's Flynn or Perrilloux, LSU's balanced offense will be too much for South Carolina to handle.  The Tiger's rock-solid defense and home field advantage will stifle the Gamecock offense.  All of this translates to LSU winning big at home.

#10 Penn State @ Michigan

Favorite: Penn State -3

Pick: Penn State

Breakdown: Here is the ironic part of this match-up: Before the season, I would have taken Penn State to upset Michigan at the Big House.  I think Penn State is the class of the Big Ten this year. Michigan is over the rough start to the season, and the Nittany Lions do not run a spread offense, which Michigan can't defend.  Mike Hart is a stud.  Penn State's run defense is a bit suspect.  But I still like JoePa to leave Ann Arbor with a win.

#21 Kentucky @ Arkansas

Favorite: Arkansas -6.5

Pick: Arkansas

Breakdown: Vegas absolutely nailed this one.  Kentucky upset hated rival Louisville last week in what was a great game.  Quarterback Andre Woodson will be playing for many, many years on Sunday.  But this is a trap game for the Wildcats.  Coming off a rivalry win, they will be primed for a let down.  Add to that Arkansas's heart-breaking loss to Alabama last week, and you can see the trap.  Darren McFadden is a bonafide super star.  The Hogs don't need a passing game.  Just hand the ball off and take the victory.

#22 Georgia @ #16 Alabama

Favorite: Alabama -3.5

Pick: Alabama

Breakdown: The Bulldogs managed only 12 points in a loss to South Carolina the second week of the season.  Alabama's defense is similar to the Gamecocks, which is trouble for Matthew Stafford and company.  John Parker Wilson and Terry Grant will guide 'Bama's offense to the win at home.

Iowa @ #9 Wisconsin

Favorite: Wisconsin -8

Pick: Wisconsin

Breakdown: This was ESPN College Gameday's location for Week 4... until Iowa State pulled the upset over Iowa.  This will be a close game, and don't be surprised if the Badgers are trailing at half.  In the end, Madison is a tough place to get a road win, and the Hawkeyes just don't have enough offensive firepower to upset Wisconsin.

LOCK OF THE WEEK

Tennessee vs. Arkansas State

Favorite: Tennessee -19

Pick: Tennessee

Breakdown: I feel bad for Arkansas State.  Rocky Top is bruised and battered after being dismantled by Florida last week.  They take out all their frustration on the poor Indians.  Here's a fun stat: ASU is 1-44-3 vs. SEC Teams, losing by an average of 35-9.  This one will get ugly.