Bowl Projections 2014: Playoff Predictions After Release of Week 14 Poll
There may be plenty of hype that surrounds the weekly release of the College Football Playoff rankings, but nothing changed in the top seven on Tuesday.
Alabama, Oregon and Florida State are still in perfect position to finish as the top three, while Mississippi State, Baylor, TCU and Ohio State are right in the thick of the race for the No. 4 spot. So what does that do for the playoff projections?
Read on to see the latest playoff picks from StatMilk, the national championship odds from Odds Shark and my own playoff projections.
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StatMilk and Odds Shark Playoff Projections and Odds
| Alabama | 19/10 |
| Oregon | 77/20 |
| Florida State | 15/2 |
| Mississippi State | 10/1 |
| Ohio State | 7/1 |
| TCU | 8/1 |
| Baylor | 8/1 |
| UCLA | 50/1 |
*Odds to win the national championship are courtesy of Odds Shark, as of Tuesday night at 10 p.m. ET.
Scott Polacek Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)
Breakdown
Alabama, Oregon and Florida State making the playoffs in this hypothetical is fairly self explanatory at this point.
They were the top three teams yet again in Tuesday’s new poll, and, assuming they all win out, the Crimson Tide would be SEC champs with wins over Auburn, Mississippi State, LSU and the SEC East champion, the Ducks would have wins over UCLA, Stanford, Michigan State and the Pac-12 South champion and the Seminoles would be the one undefeated power-five conference team remaining as ACC champs.
There may be some criticism surrounding Florida State because it wins so many of its games by close margins, but quarterback Jameis Winston put that in perspective, via Brendan Sonnone of the Orlando Sentinel:
"Well, you know, we were downgraded every time we blew someone out last year, so think of the irony of that. If we win the game close, we're bad. When we blow someone out, we're bad. But the thing is, we're a team, we're a family at Florida State.
What everyone else thinks about us, that's none of our business.
"
The surprise here is the No. 4 spot, especially since I have consistently put Baylor there in recent bowl projections.
The reason for that change is because the Buckeyes were still ahead of the Bears in the most recent poll, and that will weigh large in the near future. Baylor didn't pass Ohio State when the Buckeyes struggled with Indiana, which means it may not have another opportunity to jump Urban Meyer's bunch in the future polls.
If Baylor wins out and beats Kansas State, its resume will be close enough to TCU’s that the head-to-head victory from earlier in the season will finally come into play. That would ultimately put the Bears ahead of the Horned Frogs.
However, the Buckeyes are ahead of those Bears, and in this scenario, they beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game.
The Badgers have climbed to No. 14 in the rankings and will likely be even higher by the time the conference title game rolls around. An Ohio State win over Wisconsin will be seen in the same light as a Baylor win over Kansas State, so the Bears will not jump the Buckeyes in the last rankings.
That leaves Mississippi State.
As of now, the Bulldogs are getting credit for being in the SEC, but the selection committee will grant more credit to conference champions at the end of the season. If all of these teams win out, the Bulldogs won’t even be SEC West champions, let alone SEC winners.
The Buckeyes will get the necessary boost from knocking off a formidable Wisconsin team (and Heisman Trophy candidate Melvin Gordon) to leapfrog Mississippi State and hold off the Big 12 contenders.
Don’t just assume Ohio State will beat Wisconsin, though. Bruce Feldman of Fox Sports noted that Gordon is at his best when the stakes are highest:
However, J.T. Barrett and the Ohio State offense will outscore Gordon and the Badgers and make a final impression on the selection committee.
Get ready for a Nick Saban and Meyer showdown in the College Football Playoff.
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