Bowl Projections 2014: Updated Playoff Outlook Heading into Rivalry Week

We're less than a month away from the first bowl game, yet there is still so much uncertainty across the country.

In the ACC, Florida State and Georgia Tech will meet in the championship next week. Among the major conferences, that's all we know for sure.

Baylor and TCU are still duking it out for the Big 12, while Kansas State has an outside shot at crashing the party. Oregon and Ohio State have booked spots in the Pac-12 and Big 10 championships, but UCLA and Wisconsin still have significant hurdles before meeting them there. Finally, Alabama, Mississippi State, Missouri and Georgia all have an opportunity to claim the SEC.

With so much unknown, there is still likely to be plenty of movement in the top four. But let's take a gander at the current outlook of the college playoff.

Week 14 College Football Playoff Rankings

2014 College Football Playoff Predictions

Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State

Rose Bowl: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State

Team in Danger: Florida State

Mark Wallheiser/Associated Press

The Seminoles are undefeated and assuredly control their own fate in getting to the playoff, but they better be careful.

While you can't fault them for continuing to put notches in the "W" column, their last five victories have been by an average of 7.2 points. Three of those required a fourth-quarter comeback.

As Jeff Long explained, via Fox Sports' Stewart Mandel, the selection committee hasn't exactly been impressed with the FSU Goonies (you know, because they never say die):

In other words, as NFL.com's Chase Goodbread suggested, there's no breathing room:

That means the Seminoles likely need to win their final two games.

First up is Florida. The Gators have endured a tumultuous season but have won three of four, including an impressive 18-point victory over No. 9 Georgia.

Second is Georgia Tech, which has won four straight and boasts one of the country's most feared rushing attacks.

The Seminoles should win both of those, but a rivalry game and conference championship both set the stage for a lot of unpredictability. I have the defending national champions making it to the playoff, but it won't be simple in the least.

Team on the Rise: Ohio State

Al Goldis/Associated Press

The selection committee is headed for a potentially massive headache of a situation. Imagine Ohio State, Baylor, TCU and UCLA all win out.

That would mean that not only does it have to find a way to distinguish among the one-loss Buckeyes, Bears and Horned Frogs, but also in the mix will be two-loss Oregon and UCLA, with the latter sitting as the Pac-12 champs.

Of course, as ESPN's Travis Haney pointed out, that's not quite a realistic situation:

The Bruins have been far better down the stretch, but red-hot Oregon will still have the advantage should they meet in the Pac-12 'ship.

In our same hypothetical situation but with a UCLA loss to Oregon, that leaves the committee to pick among OSU, Baylor and TCU. And as many have argued, the Buckeyes are a good bet to jump to No. 4 in that situation:

According to Mandel, the committee supposedly doesn't view Ohio State's loss to Virginia Tech as "bad," and the Buckeyes can still add a win against what would be a 10-2 Wisconsin squad. That will be just enough to sneak them into the top four.