Browns Win Division, Patriots Eliminated: Strange but Possible Playoff Scenarios

Eager to see a Houston Texans-Minnesota Vikings Super Bowl? Who wouldn't be? It probably will not happen, but it is still possible.

 If the Texans win their remaining five games, including a matchup with the Indianapolis Colts, they finish 10-6. A 2-3 stretch run for the Colts—let's pencil in losses to the Texans, Dallas Cowboys and Cleveland Browns—leaves them at 9-7, giving the Texans an outright division title and a home playoff game. That's not too far-fetched.

Getting the Vikings into the playoffs takes some doing. Winning outright would leave them at 9-7 and stuck in a Wild Card quagmire. Let's knock the Detroit Lions down to .500 with a pair of Chicago Bears losses and a Green Bay Packers loss (to go with a Vikings loss), then carefully line the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers up at 8-8 by making them split their series but lose all their other games (hey, the Oakland Raiders could beat the 49ers if both teams play like they did in Week 12). Presto! The Vikings are a Wild Card team, and we are only a few playoff upsets away from the implausible Super Bowl that most fans would never ask for.

The ESPN NFL Playoff Machine makes crafting these zany scenarios easy. If your favorite team is not yet mathematically eliminated, creating the playoff matchup of your dreams is simply a matter of toggling win-loss records on an easy-to-navigate interface. The NFL Playoff Machine is great for "how the St. Louis Rams win the Super Bowl" tomfoolery; colleagues like Will Leitch at Sports on Earth like to stretch its tolerances until teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing in the Super Bowl. (The Jaguars are now mathematically eliminated, but last week that was still possible.) When you read the gloom-and-doom scenarios about a 5-11 NFC South team making the playoffs, chances are the NFL Playoff Machine was used to verify the results.

Instead of fussing and clicking until the wackiest or most depressing combinations of teams reach the playoffs, let's take a strategic approach to forecasting the postseason with the help of the NFL Playoff Machine. Let's bundle the individual games into "scenarios," broad trends that shape the next five weeks and create unpredictable results. In addition to being fun, these scenarios can reveal some of the forces that will affect the playoff race in December. It's easier to count potential "trap" games, tough division matchups or meetings with an angry former champion when they are lumped together and applied to the league as a whole than by searching for them catch-as-catch-can.

Before we start, some quick ground rules. The default setting for the NFL Playoff Machine in all of these scenarios is "Best Record Wins," with the home team winning any win-loss record ties, unless otherwise specified. From that baseline, we use the scenarios to fiddle with the outcomes. All results are valid through Monday night's action, and playoff seedings are determined by the Playoff Machine itself, which is an ace at keeping track of tiebreakers.

With that out of the way, let's see if we can fracture the playoffs.

Backup Quarterbacks and Lions Collapse Scenario: The Arizona Cardinals have the best record in the NFC right now, the Philadelphia Eagles are tied with the Cowboys atop the NFC East and the slumping Lions are still in the thick of the Wild Card hunt. All of that could change, though, because the Cardinals and Eagles are relying on backup quarterbacks Drew Stanton and Mark Sanchez, while the Lions are relying on all of the same players who have made them the Lions for the past few seasons.

In this scenario, the Lions, Cardinals and Eagles all tank epically: They lose to any opponent with a reasonable chance of reaching the postseason (greater than .500 record, Atlanta Falcons or New Orleans Saints), and they also lose any divisional road games. It's a full-bore implosion, and this is how it looks in the final NFC standings:

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The Cardinals and Eagles lose all of their remaining games in this scenario, as they are always either on the road or facing a playoff contender (or both). It's hard to picture the Eagles losing to both the New York Giants and Washington Redskins on the road late in the season, but the NFC East is always tight and emotional, neither the Giants nor Redskins were completely inept on Sunday—and the Eagles' starting quarterback is Mark Sanchez.

The Lions, meanwhile, get the Bears, Buccaneers and Vikings at home in the next three weeks. Even the most pessimistic Lions doubter can find some wins there. The Cowboys ride the Eagles sweep into home-field advantage in this scenario, the Seahawks and 49ers climb past the Cardinals to cause postseason trouble, and the Saints slide in despite the fact that the Falcons get a victory over the Cardinals.

With so many divisional games on the upcoming schedule, this scenario has almost no AFC impact. All four AFC North teams finish 10-6 or better, but there is a good chance that is going to happen anyway.

Pride Only Hurts Scenario: Some of the NFL's last-place teams are beginning to put up a fight. The Raiders upset the Kansas City Chiefs, the Redskins and Giants took superior foes into the final minutes, the Buccaneers did everything they could to make Lovie Smith's Bears homecoming memorable, and the Tennessee Titans kept throwing scares into the Eagles until late in the game. Even the Jaguars kept things close for a while on Sunday. And the New York Jets made it to that neutral site venue all by themselves Monday night! What if all of these teams, even the Jets, would rather prove something about themselves than jockey for the first pick in the draft? Could a handful of upsets in "trap games" shake up the playoff picture?

In this scenario, the NFL's one-to-three-win teams (Raiders, Jaguars, Buccaneers, Jets, Titans, Redskins, Giants) suddenly acquire the power to defend their home turf down the stretch. Every road game against them becomes a trap victory as they fight to save the coaches' jobs, improve the quarterbacks' self-esteem or just catch a break from non-stop talk-radio catcalls. With a bunch of surprising upsets in the mix, the playoff projections look like this:

1. Cowboys 13-3	5. 49ers 11-5
2. Packers 12-4	6. Lions 10-6
3. Seahawks 11-5
4. Saints 7-9

The design of this scenario actually rewards teams with tougher schedules: The Cardinals get to win out because they face so many tough foes, while the Colts are punished for a late schedule with the Buccaneers and Titans on it (plus tough opponents like the Cowboys).

Everyone in the AFC North finishes over .500 again, despite the fact that the AFC North teams enjoy record inflation that comes from facing the two soft South divisions. Most of the damage of playing the Jaguars, Titans and Buccaneers is already done. This is another scenario that predicts it will take 10 wins, plus tiebreaker advantages, to win an AFC Wild Card, which is bad news for teams like the Chiefs, Miami Dolphins and San Diego Chargers that have only had limited bad-opponent feasting opportunities.

The Raiders earn the first pick in the 2015 draft with a 3-13 record in this scenario. The Jaguars get the second pick at 4-12. The ESPN Playoff Machine glitched in this scenario before Monday night's game, giving the Jets a 4-13 record. It may have been a problem associated with the delayed matchup with the Bills, or it may be someone's sadistic joke to make the Jets season even longer.

Rings are All That Matters Scenario: Monday night's Baltimore Ravens victory over the Saints featured two teams with proven Super Bowl pedigrees hanging on the fringes of the playoff picture. It was a reminder that not every championship-winning quarterback is Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, cruising toward usual home-field advantages and first-round byes. Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson all have lots of work to do to get their teams to January. Drew Brees and Joe Flacco face uphill battles. Eli Manning is fighting for his future while trying to give his dying franchise a measure of dignity. What happens if all of these guys do what "winners" are supposed to do in December: elevate their games and lead their teams on a winning streak?

If your quarterback has a Super Bowl ring (as a starter) in this scenario, he's leading you to a victory every week. The tiebreaker between two "winners" is the ring count. Let's see how the magical rings affect the playoff race: 

1. Patriots 13-3	5. Ravens 11-5	1. Cardinals 14-2	5. Packers 11-5
2. Broncos 13-3	6. Steelers 10-6	2. Cowboys 12-4	6. Eagles 10-6
3. Browns 11-5		3. Lions 11-5
4. Colts 9-7		4. Saints 6-10

The Seahawks and Packers are big winners. The Packers lose to the New England Patriots this Sunday (three rings to one), but they nudge the Cowboys out of a first-round bye because of a better conference record (the Cowboys lose in Philly in this scenario). The Seahawks knock the 49ers and Eagles out of the postseason. The Saints, as you might expect, still win the NFC South, but a loss to Ben Roethlisberger's Pittsburgh Steelers (two rings to one) keeps them from winning out.

Note that the NFC North still does not change much. The Steelers and Ravens use their championship mettle to nose their way to the top of the division, but the Browns still hang around as the second Wild Card. The Cincinnati Bengals finish 9-6-1 but are knocked out of the playoffs; as this scenario rewards teams with the ability to win high-stakes games, that makes sense.

Defense Wins Championships Scenario: Well it does, doesn't it? With the weather getting cold and injuries mounting, it makes sense that teams with dominant defenses might rise to the occasion late in the year. It makes as much sense as assuming teams with Super Bowl experience will automatically win, anyway.

The ESPN Playoff Machine has a "Defensive Rank" toggle, allowing us to quickly create a scenario in which the best defense wins any upcoming game. The NFL ranks defenses by total yards allowed and does not make adjustments for anything, which yields some hinky results, as the following playoff rankings illustrate:

1. Patriots 14-2	5. Ravens 12-4	1. Cardinals 13-3	5. Seahawks 12-4
2. Broncos 13-3	6. Browns 10-6	2. Packers 12-4	6. Lions 12-4
3. Steelers 12-4		3. Cowboys 12-4
4. Colts 10-6		4. Saints 8-8

Defensive rankings throw the AFC into a state of chaos that strains our suspension of disbelief. The Dolphins and Buffalo Bills are not overtaking the Patriots, folks, though it is fun to see a scenario that rewards their outstanding front sevens. The Chiefs are a more believable Wild Card, and this scenario is the first that releases the AFC North's stranglehold on the fifth and sixth seeds—ironic, since we think of that division as defense oriented.

The NFC rankings are more in line with what we might expect. The Packers and Eagles get hosed at 9-7, but that is likely to happen anyway in a conference that has promised a seat at the table for the Southern Stinkeroos. The Saints and their sidekicks are treated especially bad by a system that rewards defense. Watch any NFC South game and you will see why.

You know what we need? One last scenario that restores a little pride to the two southern divisions.

The South Rises Again Scenario: The Saints, Colts and Texans win out in this scenario, thanks to a mixture of Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, J.J. Watt, eagerness to please a new coach, eagerness to please a proven coach and what-have-you. The Falcons also win out, except for the Saints game, in a doomed effort to save Mike Smith's job. All of the other NFC and AFC South sad sacks win their remaining home games, except when facing division foes. The result is an intriguing playoff picture:

1. Broncos 13-3	5. Chiefs 11-5	1. Seahawks 12-4	5. Cardinals 11-5
2. Dolphins 11-5	6. Bills 11-5	2. Lions 12-4	6. 49ers 10-6
3. Steelers 11-5		3. Cowboys 12-4
4. Colts 10-6		4. Saints 6-10

As you might expect, bad teams playing well create a nightmare scenario for the Steelers, who play down to their competition until they finish 8-8 and in last place in the AFC North. The Falcons have spoiler fun, knocking the Packers (10-6) and Steelers off the pace. A Colts loss slides the Cowboys down to Wild Card status, while general grade deflation in the AFC North opens the door for the defense-oriented Chiefs and Dolphins. Yet no matter what the Colts do, they still cannot snatch a first-round bye from the Patriots and Broncos.

Best of all, the Saints make the playoffs with a non-ridiculous record, so we could still see an NFC South team in the postseason that is worth watching. All it takes is a Drew Brees hot streak, a little pride, and a computer program that proves just about anything is possible.

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.