College Football Picks Week 14: Predictions and Odds for Top 25 Schedule

The nation's Top Four teams remain unchanged heading into Week 14 of the college football season; however, things have certainly tightened up a bit. While Florida State remains on top, second-ranked Alabama received 21 first-place votes and trail by just a slim point margin in the Associated Press poll.

Oregon and Mississippi State still round out the top squads, but keep an eye on the potent offense of the Baylor Bears.

Baylor owns the nation's top scoring offense and has a very favorable matchup in Week 14 against a shaky Texas Tech defense. If one of the Top Four should falter and Bryce Petty lights up the scoreboard as expected, we could see some very intriguing late-season changes to the College Football Playoff picture.

As we've learned throughout the season, no active team is safe from defeat. So, let's revisit a question that's asked on a weekly basis: Which top team is most likely to fall? This week's answer may surprise you. Before we delve into some analysis regarding that quandary, here's a look at the full schedule, odds and predictions for all Top 25 teams in Week 14.

The full CFB schedule can be viewed at ESPN.com.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS
Florida at No. 1 Florida State	FSU -9.5	Florida
No. 15 Auburn at No. 2 Alabama	ALA -9.5	Alabama
No. 3 Oregon at Oregon State	ORE -20	Oregon
No. 4 Mississippi State at No. 18 Ole Miss	MSU -1.5	Mississippi State
No. 5 Baylor vs. Texas Tech*	BAY -23.5	Baylor
No. 6 TCU at Texas	TCU -6.5	TCU
Michigan at No. 7 Ohio State	OSU -20	Ohio State
No. 16 Georgia Tech at No. 8 Georgia	GU -12.5	Georgia
Stanford at No. 9 UCLA	UCLA -4.5	UCLA
No. 10 Michigan State at Penn State	MSU -13.5	Michigan State
Kansas at No. 11 Kansas State	KSU -27	Kansas
No. 13 Arizona State at No. 12 Arizona	off	Arizona
No. 22 Minnesota at No. 14 Wisconsin	WISC -13	Minnesota
Arkansas at No. 17 Missouri	off	Arkansas
Western Kentucky at No. 19 Marshall	UM -21	Marshall
No. 21 Colorado State at Air Force	CSU -7.5	Colorado State
South Carolina at No. 23 Clemson	CLEM -4.5	South Carolina
Kentucky at No. 24 Louisville	UL -14	Louisville
Utah State at No. 25 Boise State	BSU -10	Boise State

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of November 23.

Week 14 Upset Pick: Florida over No. 1 Florida State

This is the week the Seminoles won't be able to rely on their late-game magic to continue their unbeaten streak.

Rarely is an undefeated team picked to fall to an unranked opponent, but that's likely to happen to a Florida State team that has been living on the edge for several weeks now. In fact, the Seminoles just barely escaped with wins in their last two contests against Miami and Boston College by a combined seven points.

While Florida State's defense is playing well enough against the pass, it continues to get torched on the ground. In Week 13 against Boston College, the Seminoles gave up 240 yards and a score on 51 carries, an average of 4.7 yards per rush. One week prior, Miami fared just as well, rushing for 176 yards and a score on 40 carries, an average of 4.4 yards per rush.

Steve Palazzolo of Pro Football Focus tweeted a very common statement during the Seminoles' contest against the Eagles:

This week, Florida State is tasked with stopping a Gators rushing offense that's averaging 197.1 yards per game on the ground and has scored 21 rushing touchdowns this season. Expect the combination of Matt Jones and Kelvin Taylor to give the Seminoles fits.

To keep pace, the Seminoles will need a better performance from quarterback Jameis Winston out of the gate. He's been sluggish in the first half of games this season, allowing his team to fall behind quickly. Here's a very telling statistic courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info:

Winston hasn't been putting up Heisman-like numbers again this season, and that's partly due to a lack of ball security. The sophomore has thrown at least one interception in all but two games this year, totaling 13 through 11 contests. More turnovers should be expected this week against a Florida team that excels at rushing the passer, totaling 25 sacks on the season, and has come away with 10 interceptions as a result.

Obviously, defeating their in-state rivals is motivation enough for the Gators; however, they have something else to play for, via Stewart Mandel of Fox Sports:

Florida played like a team possessed in its last home contest of the season, defeating Eastern Kentucky 52-3. The team's players were all recruited by Will Muschamp, and they'll want to send the coach off with a victory in his final game with the Gators.

The right motivation can go a long way, and we'll witness that Saturday.

Prediction: Florida 27, Florida State 24