Bowl Projections 2014: Latest Playoff Predictions, Odds and More
Make sure to get as much family and friend time in as you can early on this Thanksgiving week, because the race for the College Football Playoff will take center stage on Thursday night, Friday and Saturday.
Rivalry games and conference championship contests are all that stand in the way of a potential playoff spot for a number of teams, including Alabama, Florida State and Oregon.
With that in mind, here is a look at the latest playoff projections and odds from Statmilk and Odds Shark before my playoff predictions and a deeper look at one of the dark horses that could butt its way into the entire conversation.
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Statmilk Playoff Projections and Odds
| Alabama | 5-2 |
| Florida State | 11-2 |
| Oregon | 15-4 |
| Ohio State | 11-2 |
| Mississippi State | 8-1 |
| Baylor | 8-1 |
| TCU | 8-1 |
| UCLA | 45-1 |
National championship odds are courtesy of Odds Shark, as of Sunday night at 10 p.m. ET.
Scott Polacek Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Baylor
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)
The Dark-Horse Candidate: UCLA
There are four playoff spots available, and if Alabama, Florida State and Oregon win out, they are taking three of them. After all, that would mean the Crimson Tide won the SEC, the Ducks won the Pac-12 and the Seminoles finished as the only undefeated power-five conference team and as ACC champs.
Between the quality wins on Oregon’s and Alabama’s resumes and the zero in the loss column for Florida State, there isn’t much of an argument against those three.
The next tier consists of the one-loss contenders in Ohio State, Mississippi State, Baylor and TCU. They all have an inside track on two-loss UCLA from the Pac-12, but that will only truly matter when the final rankings are released.
Chaos is an inescapable part of college football, especially with a number of rivalry showdowns and conference championship tilts on the immediate horizon.
It is not that difficult to envision a scenario where some combination of an Alabama loss to Auburn, a Baylor loss to Kansas State, a TCU loss to Texas, an Ohio State loss to Wisconsin, a Mississippi State loss to Ole Miss, a Florida State loss to Georgia Tech or, most importantly in this scenario, an Oregon loss to UCLA occurs.
Clearly, this all will not happen, but we could certainly see a few upsets, which would open the door for the red-hot Bruins.
If UCLA was to win out and push its winning streak to seven, that would mean the resume includes wins over Texas, Arizona State, Arizona, USC, Stanford and Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. The selection committee will also grant some favor toward conference champions, which would help UCLA’s cause.
Chris Dufresne of the Los Angeles Times passed along some interesting numbers from Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight, as well his own opinion on UCLA’s ultimate chances:
"Nate @NateSilver538 says UCLA's playoff chances 50% if they beat Stanford\Oregon. I think they are a tad higher.
— Chris Dufresne (@DufresneLATimes) November 23, 2014"
UCLA’s biggest problem is the two in the loss column, although defeats at the hands of Utah and Oregon are nothing to really be ashamed of either. Still, the Bruins survived close calls against Virginia, Memphis, Texas, California and Colorado, which isn’t exactly Murderers' Row.
If TCU gets criticized for a close win against Kansas and Ohio State takes some heat for a narrow victory over Indiana, UCLA deserves to be put under that same microscope for those games as well.
Still, winning is all that matters, and quarterback Brett Hundley discussed where his team stands, via Chris Foster of the Los Angeles Times:
“We went through the expectations and the hype at the beginning of the season, where everyone wanted us to win by 60. We’ve grown. We learned to play football and not worry about the rankings. We sit in a pretty good position, but it doesn’t matter right now.”
A lot is potentially at stake here in this UCLA hypothetical between the value of a conference championship, marquee wins and respectable losses. What’s more, plenty has to happen before the Bruins are serious playoff contenders, including a much-easier-said-than-done upset of Oregon in the conference title game.
Just be warned, though, that UCLA still has a chance to factor into the playoff discussion by season’s end.
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