Bowl Predictions 2014: Updated Playoff Projections and Odds Before Week 14
The College Football Playoff may not officially start until January, but every week in November is a win-or-go-home situation for the top contenders.
All the undefeated and one-loss playoff contenders won Saturday, so the top of the polls will not look that different Tuesday. Still, we may see some chaos on the horizon with rivalry games and conference championships in the next two weeks.
With that in mind, here is a look at Statmilk’s latest playoff projections and odds before looking at mine and the latest update in the race for the No. 4 seed.
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Statmilk Playoff Projections and Odds
Scott Polacek Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Baylor
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)
Updated Race for No. 4
As long as Alabama, Oregon and Florida State win out, they should occupy the first three spots in the final rankings. The Crimson Tide would be SEC champions, the Ducks would win the Pac-12, and the Seminoles would be the one undefeated power-five conference team as ACC champs.
That means there is a race for the No. 4 spot.
Mississippi State was No. 4 in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings and should stay put Tuesday after easily dispatching Vanderbilt. Mississippi State’s best argument is its position in the presumed best conference in the country, the SEC.
The loss to Alabama is certainly nothing to be ashamed of, and wins over Auburn and LSU are impressive. Still, both Tigers teams have lost games in blowout fashion since losing to the Bulldogs and may not quite be as daunting as once thought.
At least Mississippi State has ESPN’s Paul Finebaum on its side:
Ohio State may be the biggest long-term threat to Mississippi State for the No. 4 seed because it could be the one solo conference champion in this four-team race. That is still the case despite the fact it didn’t look all that sharp Saturday against Indiana (for what it's worth, that was the same Hoosiers team that beat the current SEC East leader, Missouri).
The Buckeyes have their rivalry game with Michigan and then the Big Ten title game against either Wisconsin or Minnesota remaining. A win over a highly ranked Badgers squad would go a long way toward bolstering the resume, and it would help in the bigger picture because the Bulldogs will not be SEC champions if Alabama wins out.
What’s more, if both TCU and Baylor win out, they will be co-champs in the Big 12 without a conference championship game. Ohio State would be an interesting case study into how much the selection committee values conference champions.
Urban Meyer talked about what lies ahead for his team, according to The Associated Press (h/t ESPN.com): "We're conference division champions, we've won a bunch of games (nine) in a row. We have some work to do. Sometimes in college football, things don't go exactly as scripted."
Baylor made the loudest statement of any contender Saturday when it crushed Oklahoma State. The nation’s No. 1 scoring offense is always going to come through in style points, but the head-to-head victory over TCU is the trump card in Baylor’s back pocket.
The Bears’ final game against Kansas State will likely decide the fate of their season, and if they win that, it will be hard to ignore a resume with victories over the Wildcats, Horned Frogs and Oklahoma.
Finally, there is TCU, which was still ahead of Baylor in the most recent College Football Playoff rankings even though the Bears beat the Horned Frogs earlier in the season.
Baylor actually moved ahead of TCU in the latest AP poll, which could be a harbinger of things to come Tuesday. The more equal the two resumes from the Big 12 become, the more likely Baylor’s head-to-head win over TCU will come into play.
TCU did get a major boost Saturday when Minnesota beat Nebraska in Nebraska. Minnesota is the Horned Frogs’ biggest nonconference win, and the Golden Gophers still control their own destiny in the race for the Big Ten West title. If they beat Wisconsin, it would set up a showdown with the Buckeyes and a golden opportunity to bolster TCU’s chances.
The Horned Frogs still have to take care of their own business first, though, with a tricky game against Texas on the horizon. The Longhorns have won three games in a row, including an impressive 33-16 victory over West Virginia, and would certainly love to end the playoff hopes of their in-state rivals.
Buckle up because there are bound to be plenty of changes between now and the end of the season.
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