Has Calvin Johnson Already Started Showing Signs of Decline?

The Detroit Zoo doesn't have elephants, but there is a giant pachyderm in the Motor City. It's an elephant in the room nobody wants to even think about acknowledging, but it's time to say it.

Calvin Johnson is not the same player he used to be.

And with all the damage his body has taken, it's not likely Megatron will ever transform back into the megatalent everyone expects him to be anymore.

Sunday's loss in New England is the latest example of Johnson's small but perceptible slide from superhuman to mortal. When coupled with the Week 11 loss in Arizona, it's one of the poorest two-game stretches in Johnson's eight-year career.

	Catches	Targets	Yards	Drops (unofficial)
New England	4	10	58	3
Arizona	5	12	59	1

It's been a growing problem all season. The productivity just isn't there, even though the Lions wisely added Golden Tate to the other side to help ease the pressure on Johnson.

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In 2013, #Lions Calvin Johnson had 100+ yds in 7 of 14 games. So far in 7 games, he has 100+ yds in just 2 games, 520 yds total. #DETvsNE

— Paula Pasche (@paulapasche) November 23, 2014"

Johnson has been hurt, missing three full games and big portions of two others with a balky ankle. The bad wheel didn't appear to hinder him in New England, however.

Drops are an ongoing battle for Johnson. While the game-charters at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) have him at just four—not including the New England game—his hands are not nearly as reliable as they should be.

As noted by Josh Katzenstein of the Detroit News, Johnson's iffy hands are becoming an issue:

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Calvin Johnson wide open downfield. Stafford scrambles, throws ball slightly behind him and Johnson drops it.

— Josh Katzenstein (@jkatzenstein) November 16, 2014"

They were an issue last year in Detroit's offensive collapse down the stretch of the 2013 season. So were nagging injuries to his body, as noted by Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press last December.

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Calvin Johnson's rise in drops correlates with drop in practice time http://t.co/kJCMxmoXuw

— Dave Birkett (@davebirkett) December 19, 2013"

From Birkett's piece (subscription required):

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Johnson missed a large chunk of practice in the middle of last season because of a left knee injury, and he has been limited to one practice day per week most of this season because of a right knee injury.

According to Pro Football Focus, Johnson, who did not practice today, has 10 drops in 13 games this year and dropped 14 passes in 16 games last season. In 2009-11, Johnson had 18 drops total, according to PFF.

"

The injuries are really starting to take their toll. A knee here, an ankle there, a back issue sprinkled in with another knee for good measure. Even some broken fingers during his record-setting 2012 campaign factor in the mix.

Johnson is only 29, but his body has been subject to abnormal amounts of abuse. It's one of the downsides of being 6'5", 230-plus pounds and the focal point of the defense for many hard years.

His awesome—using that term literally—size and athleticism are a mixed blessing. Because he's such a physical freak of nature, he's never had to run perfect routes or hone his body positioning with the ball in the air. Being Calvin Johnson was simply good enough to—usually—get the job done.

It's not so easy anymore. As Cian Fahey noted in a recent Bleacher Report column:

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This is a theme of Johnson's success in the NFL. While he can create separation relatively easily against lesser cornerbacks, he doesn't always create separation against the better cornerbacks in the league. When he can't create separation, he simply dominates at the catch point.

"

Because of the wear and tear on his body, Johnson isn't winning those catch-point battles as adeptly. He's also not getting the same initial burst off the line or out of cuts.

It's akin to Dwyane Wade having to settle more for mid-range jumpers instead of attacking the rim with fearless impunity. Like Wade for the Miami Heat, Johnson is still a very effective player, but not "elite" anymore.

The difference between elite and not quite elite is slight, but definitely perceptible.

It's the margin between the greatest two-year output by any receiver in NFL history and what has followed that magical 2011-12 production.

	Catches	Yards	Yard/Catch	Yards/Game	TDs
2011	96	1681	17.5	105.1	16
2012	122	1964	16.1	122.8	5
2013	84	1492	17.8	106.6	12
2014	34	520	15.3	74.3	3

The numbers stayed on par in 2013, but those numbers are skewed by a four-game stretch (Weeks 6-9) where Johnson posted 746 yards and seven touchdowns. The consistency of dominance was starting to wane—a trend which has continued.

It's hard to argue the waning will ever wane.

At this point, Tate is the better option in Detroit's offense. Stafford is more effective when looking to No. 15, and Tate is more dynamic after the catch too.

It's time for Matthew Stafford to adjust accordingly. As I covered last week, Stafford tends to zero in on Johnson and force the ball to him even when better options are readily available. Johnson's aching body isn't designed for that kind of demand anymore.

That's not to say Johnson needs to be put out to pasture. He's still a very dangerous weapon capable of making spectacular plays like this:

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Insanity catch by Megatron. http://t.co/1qbWoqs1Ic

— SB Nation GIF (@SBNationGIF) November 23, 2014"

Still, it's time to dial back the hyperbole and expectations with Johnson. Instead of being the best, he's now merely among the best.

Johnson has a very capable counterpart in Tate, and their complementary skills put them among the best, most dynamic tandems in the league. They're underperforming lately with the rest of the offense, but they are also the key to snapping out of the recent funk.

It would be nice if Johnson would also snap out of his personal funk and remind us once again why he was rated the No. 2 player in the entire league by the NFL Network last summer.

Unfortunately, it seems Megatron is no longer capable of justifying such a lofty status.

All stats are from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless stated otherwise.