Chances for Oakland A's to Sign 6 Top Free-Agent Targets
There are some fantastic free agents on the market this offseason, but the chances of the Oakland A's being major players for any of them are pretty slim.
The signing of Billy Butler may be the biggest signing for Oakland over the winter.
Of course, there's always the option of making a big trade. But for this discussion, we'll take a look at free agents who have been speculated as possible candidates or linked to Oakland.
Also, I have to fully admit to you that I am not in fact a Las Vegas oddsmaker. A wise guy I am not (only in my perceived humor). So rather than touting arbitrary numbers that may mean nothing to you, I'll make it even simpler. How good are the chances? They'll either be great, good, fair, slim or zero.
All 2014 Oakland A's Free Agents
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Here's a quick rundown of players from the 2014 A's who are now free agents and the chances Oakland re-signs them.
Alberto Callaspo, IF
Callaspo was simply the last reserve backup infielder who didn't do a whole lot when he was in the lineup (though he did knock in almost 40 runs somehow). Callaspo has negative value as a defender and a WAR of minus-1.1, according to FanGraphs. If anyone else wants him, he's gone.
Chances: Slim
Jonny Gomes, OF
See the argument for Callaspo above and replace with Gomes in the outfield—except Gomes was actually more of a platoon starter than a role player. But his stats are comparable to Callaspo's, and even more teams are reportedly interested.
Chances: Zero
Luke Gregerson, RP
Gregerson pitched in more games than any other Oakland Athletic, which makes it all the more impressive that he finished with a 2.12 ERA. It's a performance that Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors thinks will get the 30-year-old a three-year, $20 million deal. The A's don't make too many big splashes, and if they do, it's even more rare when it involves a reliever.
Gregerson will garner plenty of interest, too.
Chances: Slim (to none)
Jason Hammel, SP
Hammel pitched poorly overall after arriving in Oakland. The A's gave up two top-10 prospects for him and Jeff Samardzija—an extremely steep price. Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors thinks Hammel could sign a three-year, $30 million deal. There's no chance Oakland gives him another go for that money.
Chances: Zero
Jon Lester, SP
You might be like me and thought there was no chance the A's swung a deal for Lester in the first place. That said, it took Yoenis Cespedes to get the job done. Now, Lester should command a massive deal as the top starting pitcher on the free-agent market. That's not the A's style.
Chances: Zero
Jed Lowrie, SS
According to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, the A's would want to sign Lowrie on a short deal, and he seems to want a longer deal. Money aside, it sounds like there's no deal based on years alone.
But never say never.
Chances: Slim
Geovany Soto, C
The A's have three catchers already on the roster, so unless they're getting rid of two of them, I don't see why they'd re-sign Soto.
Chances: Slim (if they make a trade, otherwise zero)
Jose Fernandez, Jung-Ho Kang, Hector Olivera, IFers
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In an article by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors, Adams lists Jose Fernandez, Jung-ho Kang and Hector Olivera as potential second base upgrade candidates.
Like Adams says, and I am in complete agreement here, the A's are very unlikely to go down this route after getting burned by Hiroyuki Nakajima. Remember that guy?
If Fernandez is a major league-ready player already, as Fox Sports' Jon Morosi tweeted, the competition for his services will be steeper. Oakland landed Cespedes once upon a time, so it's not a completely hopeless idea.
Olivera recently defected from Cuba. He'll be 30 before the season starts with no MLB experience, and he is only the sixth-best Cuban player currently as is, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America (subscription required; h/t MLB Trade Rumors). The A's would hopefully pass here.
But John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group claims they are interested in Olivera even with the potential risks.
Lastly, Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe wrote about questions surrounding Kang.
"While there's intrigue over the 40-homer performer, there is still some pushback from scouts who have seen him play on whether he translates to Major League Baseball," wrote Cafardo. "There also has always been skepticism over his ability to play shortstop in the majors."
There are already too many red flags here, including the posting system. Again, the A's should pass.
Chances on Fernandez: Slim (to none)
Chances on Kang: Zero
Chances on Olivera: Slim
Emilio Bonifacio, IF/OF
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Emilio Bonifacio should come with a disclaimer. He's really only a mention in the same breath as Jed Lowrie and Stephen Drew in Adams' A's outlook on MLB Trade Rumors.
The exact line is: "A reunion with Lowrie (at either position) is certainly a possibility, and other options include Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew and Emilio Bonifacio."
That's it.
But Bonifacio is more versatile than Drew and Lowrie. Drew is a shortstop; Lowrie is a middle infielder. Bonifacio can play middle infield and all three outfield spots if needed.
Furthermore, Lowrie's likely looking for a three-year deal and could net $30 million. Drew likely will only sign a one-year deal, but it could be worth $5 million (he made $10 million in 2014).
Bonifacio has never made more than $2.6 million in a single season.
He's a career .262 hitter who hit .259 in 2014. Lowrie's numbers are .261 (career) and .249 (2014). As for Drew, it's .256 (career) and .162 (2014). Bonifacio had a better year than both, has the same kind of output over the span of his career and is much more affordable and versatile.
That's the exact kind of player the A's love.
Yet we haven't heard more rumors linking these two together, which hampers the odds.
Chances: Fair
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Asdrubal Cabrera, SS/2B
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Asdrubal Cabrera's name has been mentioned here and there with the Oakland A's, but mostly because he's a shortstop, and Oakland needs a shortstop.
At this point, any and all shortstops are being linked.
According to CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman, "The Athletics are among teams checking into free-agent shortstops Asdrubal Cabrera and Stephen Drew."
Again, the A's are likely "checking into" anyone who claims to be a shortstop at this point.
Cabrera could be signed as a shortstop or a second baseman, which increases value and puts him right at the top of the current crop with Lowrie. Quite a few teams need a shortstop, and there aren't many to choose from, especially now with Hanley Ramirez off the market.
Supply and demand could push the A's out, but it's not impossible.
Chances: Slim
Yasmany Tomas, OF
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According to Slusser (h/t MLB Trade Rumors), the Athletics have been connected with power-hitting Cuban Yasmany Tomas.
She said:
"The A's made an enormous splash in 2012 by coming out of nowhere to sign another right-handed Cuban slugger, Yoenis Cespedes. Could they do so again? Their right-handed hitting Cuban slot is certainly available after trading Cespedes to Boston last July. But Tomas might get a contract that nears $100 million, according to some estimates – the A's won't be in on that kind of action. Should Tomas, like Cespedes, prefer a shorter deal in order to become a free agent more quickly, though, perhaps Oakland can surprise again.
"
The issues, as Slusser points out, are that Oakland needs a shortstop badly, and the money Tomas could command would push it out of the conversation entirely.
Are the chances zero? Well, we thought the chances would be zero with Yoenis Cespedes, and that happened.
Chances: Slim
Stephen Drew, SS
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Stephen Drew might work out a little better than Bonifacio only because he's played in Oakland with this team before. He knows the stadium, the fans, the roster, ownership, the coaching staff and the style. There would be no adaptation period.
And perhaps because of such a poor 2014, he can be had for super cheap.
Also, general managers might see what I just pointed out about Bonifacio, thus adding more interest.
When there's less interest in a player, such as Drew, it's easier for a team to sign him—and to sign him cheap.
Plus, it's a team he knows.
All of these things are working extremely well in the A's favor.
Lastly, Drew isn't signing a three-year deal. I'd be surprised if he signs a two-year deal. That makes him even more attractive to Oakland.
Here's what Slusser said right after Oakland signed Billy Butler for three years and $30 million: "Oakland is likely to try to make a play for free agent Stephen Drew, but not pricier options such as Asdrubal Cabrera."
Chances: Good
Bonus Slide: No Links, but Don't Count 'Em out
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There are a handful of free-agent players whose names have not been connected with the Oakland A's to this point. However, they still remain possibilities.
Rickie Weeks, 2B
Frankly, I'm surprised there have been no discussions about bringing in Rickie Weeks to compete for the starting job at second base. Heyman and his sources predicted he could be signed for anywhere from $3 million to $6 million.
He's still only 32, and although he missed 41 games in 2014, he hit .274 with an on-base percentage of .357.
Chances: Fair
Brett Anderson, Brandon Morrow, Josh Johnson, Chris Capuano, SP
Each year, it seems as if general manager Billy Beane takes a cheap gamble on a pitcher returning from injury or looking to go out with a bang. This year, like most, there are a slew of options who fit this mold. Is it needed? It'd be a simple depth move. But is it out of the question? With starting pitching depth, it's never out of the question.
Any of the above guys could be signed on a one-year deal for less than $5 million.
Chances: Slim
Luke Hochevar, RP
See the argument above for starting pitchers, and throw in Hochevar's name. After five bad seasons as a starting pitcher, Hochevar went to the pen and dominated to the tune of a 1.92 ERA in 70.1 innings pitched. In that span, he struck out 82 hitters.
Then, he missed 2014.
With plenty of question marks, he might be able to be signed for around $3 million.
Chances: Fair
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