Bowl Projections 2014: Predicting Biggest Postseason Matchups
Week 13 in college football looks tame, as there are no major matchups between top bowl contenders.
That said, this is the type of week that could still wreak havoc in the rankings. The defending champion and No. 1-ranked (No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings) Florida State Seminoles have the toughest test of the top four teams.
The Noles will host the 6-4 Boston College Eagles. If Jameis Winston and Co. can survive that game, it should be smooth sailing for the rest of the nation's elite on Saturday.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
The No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 1 in CFP) will likely lay waste to the Western Carolina Catamounts. The No. 3 Oregon Ducks host the woeful Colorado Buffaloes, and the No. 4 Mississippi State Bulldogs host the Vanderbilt Commodores.
If each team wins, there won't be any shift in the College Football Playoff standings. That should change after rivalry week. I'm not expecting the teams in the Top Four will change, but there will likely be some shifting.
Here's the way I see the New Year's bowl game matchups shaking out.
- Sugar Bowl (January 1 in New Orleans, Louisiana) [Semifinal]: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Florida State
- Rose Bowl (January 1 in Pasadena, California) [Semifinal]: No. 2 Mississippi State vs. No. 3 Oregon
- Cotton Bowl (January 1 in Arlington, Texas): Ohio State vs. Baylor
- Fiesta Bowl (December 31 in Glendale, Arizona): UCLA vs. TCU
- Orange (December 31 in Miami, Florida): Georgia Tech (ACC fill-in for FSU) vs. Ole Miss
- Peach (December 31 in Atlanta, Georgia): Marshall (best non-power five champ) vs. Georgia
Why the Top Four Will Shuffle, but Remain the Same
Alabama is the Best Team in the Country
Yes, Alabama has a repeatedly tough matchup on hand against the rival Auburn Tigers in the Iron Bowl in Week 14. And yes, it will have to beat the top team from the SEC East in the conference championship game. However, over the last five weeks, no team has been as good as Bama.
It has knocked off three ranked teams since falling to the Ole Miss Rebels on October 4.
If Bama runs the table, it will own five wins over ranked opponents. There's no way it relinquishes the top spot in the CFP rankings in this scenario.
Mississippi State Will Be Back
Dak Prescott couldn't lead the Bulldogs past Alabama in Week 12, but the Bulldogs still have a great chance to rise as high as No. 2 in the CFP rankings. Assuming they beat the Commodores as expected on Saturday, the Bulldogs will only have to defeat Ole Miss to complete a one-loss regular season.
Because of the strength of Mississippi State's defense that is ranked 16th in the nation in points allowed, the Bulldogs deserve the edge over the Rebels in this hugely important in-state battle.
Can anyone really trust Bo Wallace to lead the Rebels to victory in this game? His decision-making in the 10-7 loss to LSU was troubling—not to mention the 42.4 percent completion rate.
The atmosphere for the season finale will be even more intense, and that gives Mississippi State's defense, and a gamer like Prescott, an edge over Wallace and the Rebels.
If the Bulldogs defeat their in-state rivals, their resume will be second only to Alabama's. Mississippi State would deserve the second spot in the CFP rankings.
Kings of the Pac-12, but Still 3rd
The Oregon Ducks should have little issue with the Colorado Buffaloes and the Oregon State Beavers. The latter two teams have a combined record of 7-13, and the Ducks are on a mission to finally play for another national championship.
With a battle looming against any one of four teams from the Pac-12 South, the Ducks still look like the cream of the West Coast crop. That's why it would be a shock to see the Ducks fall in any of their three remaining games before presumably taking their spot in the College Football Playoff.
The program will have a beef with the committee for selecting Mississippi State for the No. 2 spot, but a loss to unranked Arizona—even if it is avenged in the Pac-12 Championship—is still worse than a defeat at the hands of the No. 1 team in the land.
Reigning, Undefeated and Disrespected
An undefeated national champion may never be as disrespected as much as this year's Florida State Seminoles squad. The disrespect is likely to continue when the final rankings are announced.
The Noles are 10-0, and they only have one ranked opponent remaining on their schedule. Even when they clash with the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in the ACC title game, it won't generate a ton of respect because Georgia Tech isn't highly ranked.
Because of this and the Noles' weekly flirtation with a disastrous loss, they will find themselves barely holding off the likes of the Baylor Bears, TCU Horned Frogs and the Ohio State Buckeyes. Less than impressive wins and a weak schedule will make running the table just enough for the Noles to secure a spot in the playoff.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
