Bowl Projections 2014: Playoff Predictions, Odds and More Before Week 13
Remember when there was some concern among college football commentators and fans that a playoff would take away the excitement of the regular season and devalue it to a degree?
So much for that.
As the 2014 season heads into the final couple of weeks, seven teams have a realistic claim for the four College Football Playoff spots. Factors such as road victories, overall strength of schedule and even style points have come into play, and there are bound to be more surprises before the final rankings are released.
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With that in mind, here is a look at some playoff projections and odds heading into a critical Week 13.
Statmilk and Odds Shark Playoff Odds
| Alabama | 7/2 |
| Oregon | 4/1 |
| Florida State | 7/1 |
| TCU | 7/1 |
| Mississippi State | 15/2 |
| Ohio State | 15/2 |
| Baylor | 12/1 |
*Odds Shark national championship odds can be found here. Listed odds are as of Friday afternoon at 4 p.m. ET.
Scott Polacek Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Baylor
Rose Bowl: No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (semifinal winners)
Style Points Week in Race for No. 4
Given Alabama’s status as the SEC favorite; Oregon’s No. 2 position and marquee wins over Michigan State, UCLA and Utah, among others; and Florida State’s undefeated record, it is a fairly safe assumption that the Crimson Tide, Ducks and Seminoles will occupy three of the four playoff spots if they win out.
That leaves Mississippi State, Ohio State, TCU and Baylor fighting for that final seed.
Week 13 does not exactly feature a banner slate of games for these playoff contenders, as the Bulldogs are home against Vanderbilt, the Buckeyes are home against Indiana, the Bears are home against Oklahoma State and the Horned Frogs have a bye.
That means everyone outside of TCU will be focusing on accumulating style points to go along with their likely win. The question is, which team will rack up the most?
Technically, beating Vanderbilt counts as an SEC victory, which means something in the eyes of SEC defenders, but nobody is going to mistake the Commodores for Alabama or Auburn. Mississippi State will likely run away with this contest in the early going, especially against a Vanderbilt defense that allows 32.4 points a game.
In fact, Vanderbilt is 119th in the nation in scoring offense and 102nd in scoring defense, so there really isn’t anything it does well. Bryan Fischer of NFL.com highlighted just how poor of a season it has been for the Commodores:
Anything short of a 40-point win probably won’t move the needle much for Mississippi State.
As for Ohio State, it is playing the one team in the Big Ten without a conference win in Indiana. Much like Mississippi State, Ohio State really doesn't have much of an opportunity to make a statement barring a complete blowout, although the Hoosiers do feature the nation’s second-leading rusher in Tevin Coleman.
If the Buckeyes manage to stop Coleman in his tracks and also pick up a dominating victory, it would at least say something about their defense.
In terms of name recognition, Baylor has the greatest opportunity to rack up some style points on Saturday in its contest with Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are struggling after four straight losses by 21 or more points, but some college football fans may remember the season opener when they almost knocked off Florida State.
Thanks to injuries and overall attrition, this is a different Oklahoma State team than the one that challenged the Seminoles, but, fair or not, its name and history at least inspire more confidence than an Indiana or Vanderbilt. Perception is everything in college football, and that will help Baylor.
The Bears are also looking for some revenge from last season since the Cowboys were the ones to knock Baylor out of the national championship race. Baylor will be motivated by the playoffs and revenge, which is a daunting proposition for Oklahoma State.
Head coach Mike Gundy seemed to see the writing on the wall in his pregame comments, according to The Associated Press, via ESPN.com:
"You can come up on them and try to stop them in the flats, but then they'll throw it over your head. If you stay off of them, they'll throw it in the flat. If you throw too many people back in coverage, they'll try to run the ball on you.
When you play teams that are better, it's hard to have a lot of success, especially when you're struggling in certain areas. Baylor's defense is pretty good, too.
"
Baylor hopes the selection committee thinks it is as good as Gundy does after Saturday’s game.
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