Arsenal Will Have to Lay Groundwork in Advance If They Want to Get Pep Guardiola

“I would have gone with Pep Guardiola,” as Manchester United fan Andy Tate, the internet’s latest unwitting social media star, famously once said. “At least he [would have] brought a Barca style of play.”

If Tate was disappointed United ultimately made the decision to appoint David Moyes, not Guardiola, when Sir Alex Ferguson retired in 2013, then he is hardly alone in that regard. Guardiola is something approaching the white whale for every top Premier League club at this point—that one managerial candidate they would all love to appoint but, until now, have had no success.

According to Marti Perarnau’s fascinating (if slightly myopic) book on Guardiola, Pep Confidential, United never actually had a chance of signing the ex-Barcelona coach by the time Ferguson had decided to retire; the Spaniard had by then already agreed a deal in principle with Bayern Munich.

But both Manchester City and Chelsea did approach his representatives with expressions of interest, overtures that were knocked back at least once.

Guardiola is now in his second season at Bayern, having won the league and domestic cup in his first campaign with the club.

His record at Barcelona—three league titles, two Champions Leagues—and the style of play he helped foster there, all precision passing, high-energy pressing and incisive attacking, already made him a hugely sought-after coach, to the extent that he was not short of offers when he decided the time had come to leave the Catalan giants.

What he is midway through achieving at Bayern, however, already seems destined to improve his stock even further. Tate may have wanted “a Barca style of play” at Old Trafford but that is not exactly what Guardiola has delivered at the Allianz Arena. Instead what he is developing is a fusion of traditional Spanish and German methods, underpinned by a tactical structure that seems determined to defy most current conventions.

That has come with not insignificant growing pains, but the fruits of the labour are starting to show. Shifting Philipp Lahm, a career full-back, into a defensive midfield position—the "pivote"—was just the start of this.

More recently Guardiola has started experimenting with centre-backs that push into midfield (David Alaba—who is not and never has been an actual centre-back) and midfielders who drop back into defence (Xabi Alonso).

Perarnau, again in his book, details how Guardiola also helped Franck Ribery (and to a lesser extent Arjen Robben) develop his game to be able to play as a false nine, another example of how the coach is seemingly intent upon breaking apart many of the positional and tactical strictures others have placed on the game over time.

Guardiola’s ambitious product has been slowed by circumstances and, especially more recently, injuries, with Lahm, Alaba, Javi Martinez and Thiago Alcantara (all seemingly key parts of his preferred system) now sidelined for at least the medium-term. When all those pieces are available to him, however, it will be extremely interesting to see how Bayern fare on the continental stage and how other teams react to their innovations.

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The smart money, based on Guardiola’s track record, would go on the move being a success, only heightening the demand for his services further down the line. What is intriguing is it seems likely he will be available at some point in the future—unlike Ferguson, he does not appear to be an individual cut out to spend decades at any one post.

When he left Barcelona, he revealed his belief that he can only work at his preferred intensity for a four- or five-year cycle, while his players can perhaps only embrace his particular methods for a similar period, leading to a general understanding that his managerial career (which may not even go on for decades) will be comprised of short, sharp periods in different posts.

Perarnau, who had unrestricted access to Guardiola during the 2013/14 season, suggested his belief that the coach will stay at Bayern at least until friend Uli Hoeness, who was jailed on tax evasion charges during that season, is out of jail and back at the club in some capacity.

At the time of writing, Hoeness was due to be in jail until the end of 2017—he is now set to get day-release from prison from the start of next year—while Guardiola’s current contract expires in 2016. An extension would seem both possible and probable, therefore, although perhaps not for much more than a two-year span.

The expectation, one encouraged by Perarnau’s writing, is that Guardiola will then take another short break before going to work at a Premier League club, having always admired the passion of the league.

Again, it is unlikely he will be short of offers.

"As a player, I couldn't realise my dream to play there,” Guardiola said, in a taped message for the English FA, at a function in 2013. "But I hope in the future I have a challenge to be a coach or a manager there and feel the experience of all the coaches and players that have been there.” 

On Friday, David Woods of the Daily Star reported that Arsenal have made Guardiola their top target to replace Arsene Wenger, if and when the Frenchman (whose new contract runs until 2017) departs. The Star claims Arsenal are considering a move for Guardiola within the next nine months, but more realistically an approach when his “cycle” at Bayern ends would make sense (for all the talk of a slightly strained relationship with the club’s hierarchy, Guardiola and the club seem happy with the setup).

Arsenal would be able to offer an enticing project. They could give Guardiola complete control of football matters, along with the necessary funds to replenish the squad. Living in London would have its advantage to the coach’s young family, more-so perhaps than Manchester (that might be presumptuous, of course).

Manchester United would be able to offer Guardiola a job with perhaps slightly more prestige, while Manchester City could offer him every financial advantage available.

The appointment of Louis van Gaal, 63, at United this summer seemed at best a medium-term appointment; having been appointed at Bayern to rebuild the club before handing it off to another boss (Jupp Heynckes) for the second phase of the project, it certainly seems like a similar blueprint might be in effect at Old Trafford.

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If Manchester United are back in the Champions League on a regular basis in a few seasons’ time, they will be able to offer Guardiola a compelling opportunity.

Then there is Chelsea, the wildcard. Who knows how long Jose Mourinho will remain there—Blues owner Roman Abramovich is known to be a fan of Guardiola, but he is hardly going to upset the applecart if Mourinho is still delivering trophies to Stamford Bridge a few years down the line.

For Arsenal, much depends on Guardiola’s own aims and concerns. For all his tactical acumen and innovation, it cannot exactly be said the 43-year-old has sought out the hardest managerial opportunities: Both Barcelona and Bayern Munich were seasoned competitors domestically and in Europe in the seasons before he arrived.

Generously, we might say that he has always been guiding one horse in a two-horse championship race—in the Premier League, especially if he went to Arsenal, that dynamic would be significantly different.

That is all pontification, however. One thing is for sure, if Arsenal, or indeed any other club, are to entice Guardiola they will need to lay the groundwork long in advance and be sure their managerial situation is flexible enough to accommodate him whenever he does finally become available.

Whatever style of play he ends up bringing, it would seem likely to be a wise investment.