Ranking the Early Favourites for the Africa Cup of Nations
Cup of Nations qualifying concluded on Wednesday, with the final tournament places being claimed by teams from across Africa.
Two continental giants fell, with Egypt, champions in 2006, 2008 and 2010, missing out, and the current holders Nigeria also stumbling after a home draw with South Africa.
Their place in the tournament will be taken by the Republic of Congo, who return to the high table for the first time in 15 years.
Claude Le Roy’s side will likely head to Equatorial Guinea with fairly modest expectations, although the same cannot be said for the continent’s giants, who will doubtless be targeting gold.
In this piece, I rank the early favourites for the grandest prize in African football.
6. Senegal
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Immediately following the conclusion of the 2015 Afcon qualifiers, I identified Senegal as my “Dark Horse” pick to claim the continental crown.
The Lions of Teranga have the talent—as has been the case beforehand—but can they get it together after such a long spell away from the limelight?
The nation’s recent footballing history doesn’t make for happy reading.
Since their unforgettable foray to the World Cup quarter-final in 2002, the side have won only three matches at international tournaments. Those victories came against the hardly menacing trio of Zimbabwe, Guinea and Kenya.
In the last 12 years they have failed to qualify for three World Cups and two Afcon tournaments.
However, are there signs that this could be their year?
Several members of the Olympic Generation of 2012 have taken their place in the senior squad—Zargo Toure, Cheikhou Kouyate, Kara Mbodj, Sadio Mane, Idrissa Gueye and Stephane Badji are all regulars—while few can match their attacking options.
There are weaknesses, certainly, and the side could do with a right-back and a creative midfielder, but their defensive performance (they had the joint-best record in qualifying) could carry them far into the tournament.
5. Ghana
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Despite the off-field issues that marred their World Cup, despite the underwhelming way in which they negotiated a fairly straightforward group and despite the ongoing impasse regarding the manager’s position, it’s hard to write off Ghana.
With the possible exception of Algeria, I would argue the Black Stars have the best strength in depth across the team than any of the other qualified nations.
If their superstar trio of Asamoah Gyan, Kwadwo Asamoah and Andre Ayew are fit and firing, then they have the quality to carry the team to the final.
Problems do remain with the team make-up, although the inclusion of left-back Abdul Baba Rahman, a player who has slotted comfortably into the international game, gives them more balance.
Ghana have won two and drawn one when he and the previous incumbent, Asamoah, have played together.
The Avram Grant factor remains an intriguing intangible, and it remains to be seen what the former Chelsea boss will bring to this troubled West African nation.
4. South Africa
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During the early days of Ephraim "Shakes" Mashaba’s reign as South Africa coach, I questioned whether the new coach really was prompting a revolution (as many, including John Goliath of IOL Sport, claimed) or whether he was merely tweaking Gordon Igesund’s team.
Ultimately, Mashaba has prompted a revolution, but it has been a revolution of the mind, rather than a revolution of the teamsheet.
The master motivator has managed to make a united, effective force of this Bafana Bafana side. Defensively, they were the last team to be breached during the qualifying stages, keeping four clean sheets before conceding three in their last two.
In midfield, Dean Furman, Oupa Manyisa, Andile Jali and Thulani Serero may struggle to offer width, but they are capable of controlling a game when in possession and of quickly regaining the ball when lost.
Offensively, no African striker has scored more than Bournemouth’s Tokelo Rantie during the qualifying stages, and the Championship hitman is bubbling with confidence.
Having eliminated the reigning champions Nigeria, confidence will be high among Bafana Bafana’s players. It remains to be seen whether Senzo Meyiwa’s senseless murder will have a long-term effect on a young squad, but few teams will head to Equatorial Guinea in finer fettle.
3. Ivory Coast
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Heading into the penultimate round of qualifying matches, the Ivory Coast had the worst defensive record in the qualifiers. They conceded ten goals in their opening four matches and conceded four against both Cameroon (away) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (home).
Defensively, things have declined incredibly since the 2012 Cup of Nations when Francois Zahoui guided them through the tournament without conceding a goal.
New boss Herve Renard has sought to mitigate the side’s failings by returning Kolo Toure to the side (as if he had any choice following the disastrous displays of Lamine Kone, Franck Kessie and Ousmane Viera) but the ageing stopper is little guarantee of improvement.
Since dropping long-time No. 1 Boubacar "Copa" Barry the team have improved, so perhaps Sylvain Gbohouo will make a tangible difference between the sticks.
If Renard can improve their great failing—and it’s a big if—the Elephants possess the quality to claim Africa’s crown. In Gervinho and Salomon Kalou, they possess a pair of lethal forwards, while Wilfried Bony, Seydou Doumbia and Lacina Traore will surely improve.
Serge Aurier remains Africa’s outstanding full-back, while Yaya Toure, who surely can’t have too many more Afcons ahead of him, will doubtless be desperate to win one trophy that still eludes him.
2. Cameroon
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Several months ago, following the debacle of Brazil, I would never have imagined I would be heralding Cameroon as my second favourites for the African title.
Such is the extent of the Indomitable Lions’ improvement since the World Cup, however, it’s hard to ignore the credentials of Volker Finke’s side.
The German manager wasted little time in ousting the dead wood and the bad influences from the squad that represented the nation at the global high table this summer.
Twelve of the World Cup squad haven’t been called-up since, while a further two players, Joel Matip and Landry N’Guemo, haven’t made it onto the pitch.
Finke has sought talent elsewhere and will not regret putting his faith in the likes of Clinton N’Jie (21, Olympique Lyonnais), Fabrice Ondoa (18, Barcelona) and Ambroise Oyongo (23, New York Red Bulls).
The young players and the new faces have grasped their opportunity and Cameroon qualified unbeaten, defeating the Democratic Republic of Congo home and away, Sierra Leone, in Yaounde, and the Ivory Coast (4-1!).
1. Algeria
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The Desert Foxes became the second nation to qualify for the continental showpiece when they bested Malawi 3-0 in Blida.
They may have lost their final group match, the dead rubber against Mali, 2-0, but do not be fooled, this Algeria side have got the quality to conquer a continent.
Heading into that final contest with the Flames, the North Africans had won their previous five matches. Indeed, only Germany (after extra time) and Belgium had beaten them in their last 13.
Defeat to Mali was only their fourth in their last 22 fixtures.
The Fennecs haven’t missed a beat since their impressive World Cup showing, despite changing managers, with Vahid Halilhodzic departing and ex-Lorient boss Christian Gourcuff taking his place.
My Bleacher Report colleague Jonathan Wilson is right to point out that only one North African side have ever lifted the continental crown south of the Sahara before, via the Guardian, but Algeria look well-placed to become the second.
