Breakout Running Backs Ready to Headline NFL's Late-Season Stretch

The leaves have been stripped off the trees, much of America's been covered in snow and everyone's Googling casserole recipes.

It's running back season.

Just like the calendar year, every NFL year goes through seasons, and right about Thanksgiving is the time of year when running backs take over football.

Yes, the NFL is a passing league, more than ever. Yes, quarterbacks dominate the MVP discussion, as always. But Week 11's big games were all about running backs taking the rock and taking over games.

In a critical cross-conference matchup between major contenders, the only more powerful force on the field than Seattle Seahawks feature back Marshawn Lynch (5.17 yards per carry) was Kansas City Chiefs workhorse Jamaal Charles (7.95 yards per carry, two touchdowns).

In a Sunday Night Football matchup between two of the AFC's best, breakout New England Patriots star Jonas Gray was given the ball 37 times; he blew up the Indianapolis Colts defense for an average of 5.43 yards per carry and a whopping four touchdowns.

On Monday Night Football, Le'Veon Bell carried the Steelers through a trap game with a dominant performance against the Tennessee Titans. Many of his 204 yards came in the fourth quarter, as the Steelers both caught up to the Titans and put them away on the strength of Bell's bruising runs.

As the season turns, which runners are set to break out—and which teams will ride them to the playoffs?

Hot Wheels, Hot Team

Last season, nearly every team that got significantly better down the homestretch did so on the legs of a breakout tailback.

Football Outsiders' DVOA statistic is the most comprehensive measurement of football effectiveness. Its Weighted DVOA emphasizes more recent games; comparing teams' Weighted Offensive DVOA to their overall Offensive DVOA reveals whether they improved or declined late in the season.

These were the hottest and coldest offenses of 2013, per DVOA:

Ty Schalter/Bleacher Report

As it happens, all of the top seven hot offenses rode a workhorse back, a journeyman runner who got hot or an emerging tailback down the stretch. Pro Football Focus' per-week chartable stats allow us to compare players' production in the last five weeks of the season to their overall output.

The Jacksonville Jaguars found Jordan Todman, who had 166 of his 270 carries in the last five games of the year, per Pro Football Focus. Todman's 3.5 yards per carry in those games topped the 3.1 yards he averaged over the first 11. The Jaguars' minus-19.90 percent Weighted Offensive DVOA was still fourth-worst in the NFL in 2013, but far better than their league-worst minus-28.9 percent overall.

Matt Slocum/Associated Press

After starter Stevan Ridley couldn't hang on to the ball, or his job, the New England Patriots gave more carries to Shane Vereen and LeGarrette Blount. Blount was Pro Football Focus' (subscription required) third-highest-rated runner in the last five games of the year—behind only Charles and LeSean McCoy—and averaged a tremendous 5.7 yards per carry over his 73 late-season attempts.

After averaging just 3.13 yards over his first 120 career carries, Bell found another gear in the last five games of his rookie season. The Steelers gave him the rock 124 times in those five games. He averaged 3.9 yards per carry and notched half of his eight rushing touchdowns.

In terms of pure rushing performance, Pro Football Focus graded New York Jets tailback Chris Ivory its seventh-best running back over the last five games of 2013. He averaged an excellent 4.9 yards per carry over those 75 carries (out of 182 on the season).

The Arizona Cardinals stuck by starter Rashard Mendenhall far longer, it seemed, than his play warranted; by the end of the year, change-of-pace back Andre Ellington couldn't be denied. Per Pro Football Focus, he averaged 5.25 carries per game in the first 11 games and 11 in the last five—and he graded out as the fifth-best tailback in the NFL with the heavier workload.

Many fantasy football owners are wondering what happened to Zac Stacy in 2014, because the St. Louis Rams rookie flashed big time in 2013. They could have seen the stumble coming.

Stacy was fed a starter's diet of carries toward the end of the season (24.2 average carries over the last five games), but he was significantly less effective (4.19 yards per carry average in first 11 games; 3.6 average over last five). Nevertheless, the Rams got better after they settled on one back.

Finally, the Kansas City Chiefs had all the Charles they needed all season long. He was Pro Football Focus' No. 1 back over the last five games—but he was made even better by the emergence of Knile Davis as a spell back. On the field for just 68 carries in the first 11 games, Davis got 102 in the last five—and scored all four of his touchdowns when it mattered most.

The New Hotness

Which running backs are breaking out in 2014, and what teams are likely to get hot because of them?

Adding a back capable of grinding out an average of five yards per carry across 30-plus carries per game to any team would be huge. But adding a back like that to the red-hot Patriots, currently No. 2 in the NFL in scoring offense? Look out.

Perhaps the brakes should be pumped on Jonas Gray. In three seasons in the NFL, he has only 70 career carries—all of them in the Patriots' last four games. The Patriots signed Blount off the street in the wake of Gray's breakout performance; they probably aren't planning to feed him Emmitt Smith-level carries down the stretch.

Even so, Gray and Blount behind a Patriots line that's finally gelling add a much-needed power dimension to the Patriots O.

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

The Denver Broncos' C.J. Anderson, a 5'8", 224-pound sophomore, has been chipping at the edges of the Broncos' tailback rotation all year. A 13-carry, 90-yard performance against the Oakland Raiders in Week 10 led to 17 touches in Week 11 for 115 all-purpose yards. Anderson's averaged an impressive 5.2 yards over his 39 carries so far this year.

With starter Montee Ball's groin ruling him out against Miami, per ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold, Anderson will have plenty of opportunity to help quarterback Peyton Manning and the offense stay on track to get back to the Super Bowl.

With C.J. Spiller on IR and backup Fred Jackson nursing a groin injury, the Buffalo Bills have had to go to the bullpen—and they're getting good production.

It seems like Bryce Brown's been around forever, but the 6-footer's just 23 years old. Brown's capable running and dangerous open-field ability make him a multidimensional threat; working together with straight-ahead runner Anthony Dixon, Brown's had 33 touches for 186 all-purpose yards in Weeks 8, 9 and 10.

When Jackson comes back, possibly in Week 12, Brown should remain a great complement as the Bills try to keep their playoff dreams alive.

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Lamar Miller was supposed to take a backseat to Knowshon Moreno in 2014, but Moreno's injury problems have left Miller at the top of the Miami Dolphins' tailback heap. Miller struggled early; he was Pro Football Focus' 43rd-ranked running back (16th-best rusher) over the first 10 weeks. Since then, he's graded out 14th overall (fifth-best in rushing) and averaged 5.1 yards per carry.

That the Titans' second-round running back, Bishop Sankey, has gotten a lot of carries this year in the absence of departed former starter Chris Johnson isn't a surprise. On pace for 163 attempts but averaging just 3.87 yards gained on each, Sankey hasn't shown much ability to be a game-changer.

Trying to keep pace with Bell in Week 11, Sankey flashed some burst on a few runs and made sharp cuts in the return game. If the game slows down for him just a little—or the Titans offensive line can open up a few more holes—Sankey could help his fellow rookie, quarterback Zach Mettenberger, lay a strong foundation for 2015.

The Week 9 coming-out party of Cincinnati Bengals running back Jeremy Hill still hasn't stopped. Over the last three games, he's averaged a whopping 5.73 yards per carry over 63 carries. Starter Giovani Bernard will figure heavily in the rotation once healthy, but the two could bail out struggling quarterback Andy Dalton as a stunning one-two combination behind one of the league's best offensive lines.

Detroit Lions running back Joique Bell's flashed several times over the past few seasons, but he seems to have flipped a switch over the last two games. Despite going up against two of the NFL's best defensive lines, he averaged a whopping 5.4 yards per carry with his 24 carries.

If Bell stays in that form, Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the rest of the 26th-ranked scoring offense will get a serious shot in the arm—and finally do their share of the heavy lifting alongside the league's No. 1 scoring defense. Will it be in time to fend off the white-hot Green Bay Packers?

Gail Burton/Associated Press

Justin Forsett of the Baltimore Ravens has been continually overlooked this season; his league-best 5.4 yards per carry has kept the Ravens offense rolling through good times and bad. He may have to take more of the load on his shoulders if they're going to stay on top of the AFC North.

It's too late to make an impact on the playoff race, but the Oakland Raiders' explosive youngster, Latavius Murray, had 10 carries for 54 yards before helping the Raiders stun the Chiefs during Week 12's Thursday Night Football matchup. His 90-yard touchdown run gave him four carries for 112 yards and two scores before a suspected concussion knocked him out of the game.

If Murray can pass concussion testing in time to get back on the field against the Rams in Week 13, he'll be an invaluable weapon as the Raiders continue to play spoiler in 2014 and build momentum for 2015. 

The Finish Line

Of course, there are plenty of star runners who've been outstanding all season long. Bell's been fantastic, as has Lynch. Cowboys tailback DeMarco Murray, Packers sophomore Eddie Lacy and Chicago Bears all-purpose back Matt Forte have all been outstanding. They'll have to keep their current pace up—or better yet, find a higher gear—as the mercury keeps dropping and the snow keeps falling.

However, Week 17 isn't the finish line.

Not only do teams that get great running back play in November and December tend to finish the season strong, teams that rely on their running game more in the postseason tend to go farther in the playoffs.

This mix of rookies, journeymen, role players and injury replacements clicking at the best possible time could end up carrying their teams not just through December, but through January.

Ty Schalter is a National NFL Lead Writer for Bleacher Report and member of the Pro Football Writers of America. All stats were obtained via Pro-Football-Reference.com except where otherwise noted.