Matthew Stafford Remains the Unproven Piece of the Lions' Playoff Puzzle

Back on the very first Monday night of the 2014 season, everything looked to be falling in place for Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford. 

The former No. 1 overall pick had just completed one of the finest single-game performances of his career, throwing for 346 yards and two touchdowns in a 35-14 home thrashing of the New York Giants. With talent all around him and a new offense seemingly molded to fit that talent, Stafford appeared ready to once again fly with the upper tier of NFL quarterbacks. 

Fast-forward to Week 12, which sees the Lions preparing to play Tom Brady and the New England Patriots on the road, and Stafford is still very much stuck in the middle rungs of the QB ladder. In fact, he remains the one unproven piece of Detroit's playoff puzzle. 

	Yards/Game	Yards/Att	TD/INT	Passer Rating
Week 1	346	10.8	2/0	125.3
Since (9 games)	259	6.9	11/9	81.1

After 10 games, the Lions are 7-3 and in first place in the NFC North. With two matchups against the 4-6 Chicago Bears and two other home games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8) and Minnesota Vikings (4-6) left on the schedule, Detroit is still a heavy favorite to qualify for the postseason. The DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) playoff odds report at Football Outsiders gives the Lions a 78.1 percent chance at making the playoffs, which ranks as the third-best odds in the NFC. 

The Detroit defense has proven to be elite beyond any statistical doubt. Ahead of Week 12, the Lions rank first in points allowed, yards allowed, rushing yards allowed and defensive DVOA. The defense—which has already taken apart top quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees this season—represents the backbone of Detroit's playoff hopes. 

Stafford, on the other hand, has been nothing more than average in a league driven by the quarterback position. 

Just about any measure of quarterback play finds Stafford's 2014 season to be of average quality.

	Total	NFL Rank
Passer Rating	85.0	23rd
PFF Grade	-10.4	31st
Total QBR	56.9	17th
QB DVOA	-1.9%	20th

He currently ranks 23rd overall in passer rating (85.0) among qualified quarterbacks, just behind Austin Davis of the St. Louis Rams and slightly ahead of Tampa Bay's Mike Glennon. Neither Davis nor Glennon is still starting for his respective team. 

Stafford has also graded out as the No. 31 overall quarterback at Pro Football Focus (subscription required). He sits sandwiched between Kyle Orton and EJ Manuel of the Buffalo Bills among the 37 qualified QBs. In fact, since Week 2, only Geno Smith of the New York Jets (benched) and Blake Bortles of the Jacksonville Jaguars (rookie) have received a worse total grade than Stafford. 

Below is his weekly grade chart from Pro Football Focus:

Pro Football Focus

Just to drive home the point: Stafford also ranks 19th in quarterback DVOA at Football Outsiders and 17th in Total QBR at ESPN.com. 

Sure, the Lions are in the first year of a new offense, and big pieces—such as receiver Calvin Johnson and running back Reggie Bush—have missed time. But 10 games is a large enough sample size to confidently label Stafford as the definition of an average starting NFL quarterback in 2014. 

He has as many games with a passer rating above 100.0 as under 70.0 (two). He's thrown as many touchdown passes as rookie Derek Carr (13). His completion percentage of 61.2 matches the erratic Eli Manning. Only Cam Newton and Colin Kaepernick have been sacked more. 

Not surprisingly, the Lions' production on offense has suffered. Since Week 2, Detroit is averaging just 17.0 points per game, which ranks as the fifth-worst mark in the NFL. 

Rock bottom came last Sunday, when the Lions scored just six points (while failing to find the end zone for the first time since 2009) and lost to the Cardinals, despite allowing only 14 points. Stafford threw for 183 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception. Detroit entered the red zone just once, and that came off an interception forced by the defense. 

The Lions have scored a grand total of 27 points over their three losses this season. 

With six games left, including Sunday's showdown in New England and a Week 17 visit to the Packers at Lambeau Field, there's no better time than the present for Stafford to start answering the bell. 

While the Lions defense has earned an unyielding level of trust, it can't be ignored that Brady and the Patriots are averaging 40.5 points over New England's current six-game winning streak. The defense can't be realistically expected to go on the road and hold the Patriots to anything under 20 points. Brady, tight end Rob Gronkowski and a suddenly rediscovered running game are just too good to be controlled for 60 minutes at home. 

The same can be said for the season finale in Green Bay.

The Packers have been the most dominant home team of the 2014 season, scoring 43.8 points and winning by an average margin of 26.8 points per game. The Lions handled Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense at Ford Field, but beating the Packers away from home—and with the division title potentially on the line—will require Stafford to play considerably better than he did in the first meeting (two interceptions, 61.6 passer rating). 

Stafford just needs to play better, period. 

He's been a world-beater late in games, but the reason he's needed to come from behind three times this season can be traced right back to his own inefficiency early in games. 

Regardless of Stafford's struggles, the Lions still look like a good bet for the postseason. Given the remaining schedule, 10 wins should be the basement number for Detroit in 2014. But to be anything more, the Lions need to supplement a dominant defense with better quarterback play. 

Everything circles back to Stafford. All the good vibes he delivered back in Week 1 have since vacated. 

The result is rarely good when the weak link in the chain is the quarterback. The Lions have survived with Stafford just barely holding the pieces together. Detroit will only take the next step when Stafford does first. 

Zach Kruse covers the NFC North for Bleacher Report. 

Follow @zachkruse2