Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Complete Game Preview
It's Axe Week, Badgers fans. The Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Wisconsin Badgers, on the final day of the regular season, with a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game on the line at Camp Randall Stadium. If this isn't everything schedule-makers hoped for, I don't know what is.
The Gophers come into this game coming off a miraculous win at Memorial Stadium when Briean Boddy-Calhoun ripped the ball out of the tenuous grasp of De'Mornay Pierson-El just six feet from the end zone to lock up the 28-24 road victory over then-No. 23 Nebraska.
For the Badgers, a combination of Joel Stave, Tanner McEvoy and Melvin Gordon paced the offense while the defense prayed on the sideline they didn't need to come out one more time as the Badgers won their first game decided by seven points or fewer under Gary Andersen in a 26-24 victory over the Iowa Hawkeyes.
The Badgers sit at 6-1 in the Big Ten, one game ahead of the 5-2 Gophers. However, with the first tiebreaker being head-to-head records, this game is for all the marbles and a chance to play Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.
Let's take a look at the keys to success and players to watch for both teams, while also looking at what the coaching staffs and players have to say to go along with a prediction for who will represent the Big Ten West in the Big Ten title game.
Minnesota Keys to Success
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Control the Clock
Last week against Nebraska, Minnesota held the ball for 35:03 in a 28-24 victory. The Gophers do an excellent job of winning the time-of-possession battle, averaging more than 32 minutes of time of possession per game, good for 20th in the FBS.
In one of their toughest tests of the season in terms of controlling the clock, they go up against a Wisconsin team that is equally adept at hogging the ball, averaging 33:35, good for seventh in the FBS.
The Badgers lost the time-of-possession battle in each of their two losses. For a team that likes to run as much as both of these teams do—both quarterbacks average under 20 passes per game—controlling the clock typically means they are running the ball well.
If the Gophers can control the clock and keep Melvin Gordon and Co. off the field, then they'll be in much better shape to reclaim Paul Bunyan's Axe for the first time in a decade. If they can't, they'll likely be staring at their 11th straight defeat at the hands of the Badgers.
Force Turnovers
This season, the Gophers have forced 27 turnovers, which includes 13 interceptions and 14 fumble recoveries. The Badgers have shown themselves privy to turning the ball over, though Stave has done a good job of throwing to the right team, not throwing an interception in five of his past six games.
With that being said, Stave threw three interceptions against Northwestern and threw 13 last season as the full-time starter. The Badgers have put the ball on the ground 17 times this season. However, they have lost only eight of those fumbles.
If the Gophers can force multiple turnovers, it will keep the Badgers on their heels and swing the momentum in the Gophers' favor. Turning those turnovers into points will also be incredibly important if they want to steal this game on the road.
Wisconsin Keys to Success
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Run the Ball
When you have Melvin Gordon in your backfield, this should be a given. Gordon tied the Big Ten rushing record, set by Ron Dayne in 1996, last week and has 2,109 rushing yards on the season. That alone should be enough of a reason to run the ball.
When you also have Corey Clement and Tanner McEvoy as options, running the ball should be your first- and second-down option and an option on 3rd-and-short as well. Stave threw 14 passes last game, which is about the number that he should be throwing.
Gordon ran the ball 31 times against Iowa, while McEvoy had six carries. With a healthy Clement, the three of them should see 35 carries as a group, with Gordon getting the lion's share of those. He's seen 25 or more carries in six of the team's games, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit that mark again against the Gophers.
Pressure the Quarterback
This season, the Badges have 34 sacks, including 20 from their linebackers, led by Derek Landisch with seven and Vince Biegel with 6.5. The Badgers are at their best when they can generate pressure on the quarterback and cut down the amount of time their corners need to cover receivers, which is typically in man coverage.
To open up their six-game winning streak, the Badgers got six sacks on an otherwise less-than-stellar day from their defense. Since then, the Badgers racked up three or more sacks in three straight games between their shutout of Rutgers and their dominating drubbing of Nebraska.
But last week, the Badgers were only able to generate two sacks, which included a key sack by Landisch that put the defense back on track a bit. The Badgers will need to get to Leidner three or more times if they want to comfortably win this game, though his escapability in the pocket will make that a tall task.
Minnesota Players to Watch
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Maxx Williams, Tight End
With David Cobb questionable due to a hamstring injury, Minnesota's most dependable offensive weapon becomes their big tight end, Maxx Williams. Williams has 28 receptions for 418 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. This Mackey Award semifinalist could keep defensive coordinator Dave Aranda up at night.
While those numbers don't really pop off the page—save the seven touchdowns—Williams has twice as many receptions as the next-highest total and nearly twice as many yards as Isaac Fruechte, who is second on the team with 269 receiving yards.
Williams is 6'4" and 250 pounds, making him far too big for a corner to cover him, but he is also too quick for a linebacker or safety. The Gophers love to target him in the red zone, as his big frame and dependable hands make him a sure bet for six unless he's completely blanketed.
If Cobb can't go, look for Williams to see five or more targets in this game, particularly when the Gophers get down in the red zone. The Badgers are not particularly adept at covering play-action passes, which is an area where Williams is at his best. Williams will be key if the Gophers want to steal back the axe.
Briean Boddy-Calhoun, Cornerback
This defensive back saved the day for the Gophers and made this game still relevant. If it wasn't for Boddy-Calhoun's strip near the goal line against Nebraska, the Gophers would have been eliminated from contention and stuck settling for another mid-tier bowl.
But while casual fans may be hearing Boddy-Calhoun's name for the first time, Gophers fans have seen all season just how good he can be. Seventh on the team with 44 tackles, Boddy-Calhoun leads the team with four interceptions and 11 passes defensed, and he is tied for the lead with two forced fumbles.
The Gophers defense has thrived all year on making a big play when it needed one, and Boddy-Calhoun is a big reason for that. If he can force another turnover on Saturday and the Gophers can turn it into points, that will be a huge boon to the team and will take them one step closer to winning the game.
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Wisconsin Players to Watch
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Melvin Gordon, Running Back
Sure, it's a little boring to put the same guy here nearly every week, but after weeks of picking someone new, I have no qualms about putting Gordon in this slot again. Gordon has been absolutely sensational this season, and when you have a Heisman candidate on your team, he is certainly the player to watch on offense.
Gordon has 2,109 yards on 254 carries this season with 25 rushing touchdowns. Gordon has a touchdown in every game this season, 100 or more yards in nine straight games, 200 or more yards in three straight games and five games this season and has nearly 1,000 yards in the month of November alone (941).
All eyes will be on Gordon every time he touches the ball, which would be a problem for most backs, but Gordon has shown an uncanny ability to make the first guy miss and steamroll people in the second level.
His ball security leaves something to be desired, as he's put the ball on the ground six times this season, losing five of those. With that being said, he's improved significantly as a pass-catcher, hauling in four balls for 64 yards last week against Iowa, including a 35-yard reception with the game on the line.
Gordon will only need his first carry to break the Big Ten single-season rushing record, which he is currently tied at 2,109 for, set by Ron Dayne in 1996, but look for Gordon to make it 10 straight 100-yard rushing days. Don't be surprised if he makes it more like 200 yards, as no one has the skill and drive to will a team to victory like Gordon.
Michael Caputo, Safety
In the most important game of the season, it would be unreasonable to highlight anyone else other than the most important player on both sides of the ball. On the defense, while the Chevy Bad Boys get much of the press, it is Caputo whose sure tackling allows the linebackers to blitz as much as they do.
Caputo leads the team in tackles with 81 and seems to be at his best in the biggest moments. Last week against Iowa, Caputo racked up 11 total tackles, tops on the team, and kept the Iowa running game at bay, despite Mark Weisman and the other Hawkeye backs looking threatening at times.
Caputo will need another big game by limiting the damage on any given play. With Caputo as steady as he is, it frees up Biegel and Landisch to make plays in the backfield where they are their most dangerous.
What They're Saying
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Minnesota
After the big win over Nebraska, questions turned to the health of star running back David Cobb. Head coach Jerry Kill was unsure of his status going into this week's rivalry game, but he remarked that he certainly wanted his star on the field if at all possible.
"I think [Cobb's availability for the Wisconsin game] is a big question mark, and I think anytime you get a hamstring situation like that, it’s not an easy deal. So we’ll just have to see what happens. I told [Cobb] and Ed [head athletic trainer Ed Lochrie], 'Hey, you’ve got to get him ready to go.' But we’ll just have to see."
Getting Cobb back is a priority, particularly since backup Berkley Edwards suffered a concussion at the end of the game. Kill continued on WCCO by talking about his running back situation past Cobb.
"But if he doesn’t go, Donnell [Kirkwood] and Rodrick [Williams]—they’ll have to step it up. Hopefully we’ll get Berkley back because Berkley did some good things in the game, and then he got hit and got a concussion. So at the end of the game, we had two backs.
So hopefully Berkley’s going to be OK, and David’s going to be OK. But if not, I know the other two young men will give us everything they’ve got, and that’s all you can ask.
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Wisconsin
Speaking of health and running backs, head coach Gary Andersen updated the media on the status of Corey Clement, who suffered a shoulder injury against Nebraska and was held to just one carry against Iowa for minus-one yard. Jeff Potrykus of the Journal Sentinel reported on Clement's absence.
"He carried a little bit through the week," Andersen said, referring to practice. "We thought he would be ready to go. I would say it was precautionary not to play him. If he absolutely would have had to..."
Keeping with talking about running backs, in his postgame press conference, Andersen beamed about the improvements Gordon has made as a receiver.
"Melvin has really improved and it’s been talked about and talked about many times by myself throughout the year. That was something Melvin wanted to be better at. He wanted to be involved as a receiver and he is. He made a big time play today at the end there, caught a couple balls that were big difference makers for us, so he’s another weapon in the passing game that is tough to deal with.
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Prediction
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In the most important edition of the Battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe since 1962, look for both teams to be fired up right out of the gate in this game. In 1962, the No. 3 Badgers beat the No. 5 Gophers 14-9 to win the Big Ten outright and earned a trip to the Rose Bowl thanks to the victory.
While the stakes aren't quite that high, in this border battle, the West division crown and a trip to Indianapolis to play Ohio State makes this as intriguing a matchup as these two teams have played in more than 50 years.
Both teams will likely not do anything too special in this game, as the Badgers will pound the ball on the ground with Gordon, Clement and McEvoy, who has been outstanding in the read-option game.
The Badgers should also have a jolt of confidence in Stave as a passer, who quietly has completed 68.5 percent of his passes in the last three games with 404 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. While not asked to do a ton, he has come up big on third down and has developed nice chemistry with Gordon.
The Badgers have started slowly in nearly every game this season, staking teams leads of all shapes and sizes. That wasn't exactly true last week after they jumped on Iowa in the first half, but a touchdown on the opening drive as opposed to sputtering for a 50-yard field goal would have been even better.
Look for the Gophers to have a 7-3 lead late in the first quarter before Gordon finally breaks his first big run on a read option play, scampering more than 40 yards for the first Badgers touchdown of the day.
From there, look for a steady diet of runs with one long play-action pass completed to Alex Erickson gives the Badgers a 20-10 lead heading into halftime.
With the pressure mounting, look for the Gophers' opportunistic defense to cause a turnover in plus territory but not be able to do anything thanks to a key sack by Biegel on a third-down play on the edge of field-goal range.
After all is said and done, the Badgers will walk out of Camp Randall with the Axe for the 11th straight year and will hastily begin preparing for the Buckeyes in Indianapolis, a place where the Badgers are 2-0 in Big Ten Championship Games.
Wisconsin 31, Minnesota 20
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